England enter their game with New Zealand this weekend looking to rouse the spirit of their famous win in 2012, and erase memories of the four defeats on the trot that have followed since.
We all know what New Zealand are capable of – if they click for 80 minutes, it doesn’t matter who you are, you will not stop them. But get in their faces a bit, refuse to be overawed by them and, most crucially (here’s looking at you, Ireland and Australia), play through to the very last second of the game, and they are eminently beatable.
Can England repeat the feat of 2012 this weekend?
England
Given the hand Stuart Lancaster has been dealt with injuries, a win tomorrow would probably be an even bigger shock than that of 2012 (and if you remember, dour losses to Australia and South Africa preceded that game). We won’t revisit the list of walking wounded again, but suffice to say that you could pretty much form another XV – and a very decent one at that – from those unavailable.
So, to those actually playing. The most intrigue surrounds the backline, where Semesa Rokoduguni, the 27-year old army man, makes his debut on the wing. He is joined by Jonny May, who is given one last chance to translate his undoubted Premiership brilliance to the international stage, and Mike Brown, who needs to rediscover his Six Nations form, in the back three. Kyle Eastmond and Brad Barritt form a new centre partnership, but one that possesses guile in attack and solidity in defence, if the right balance can be struck.
The half-backs picked themselves, although Owen Farrell’s lack of game time is a concern. The pack is more settled, with new dad Dave Atwood ready to make a mark after getting a chance to start in the second row. Dylan Hartley and Courtney Lawes’ partnership will be key at the set-piece, while Tom Wood and Chris Robshaw will hold no fear over facing the All Blacks having matched them at the contact area before.
New Zealand
Their last two truly competitive games – a win and a loss – have been settled by a cumulative margin of three points, so there’s an argument to say that the All Blacks are, if not there for the taking, then wobbling a little bit. The USA game didn’t teach us a great deal, other than the fact that when presented with a non-existent defensive pattern, they have enough outrageously talented individuals to destroy their opposition.
Speaking of, Sonny Bill Williams retains his place in the midfield with Conrad Smith, giving an excellent blend of attacking prowess and wily understanding – not unlike England’s, just more experienced. Aaron Cruden retains the fly-half berth after apparently serving his penance for his drunken misdemeanour – the perennially unlucky Beaden Barrett drops to the bench, and there is no room in the squad for Dan Carter.
The rest of the team has an ominously settled feel to it. The set-piece is one area they could come unstuck against a well-drilled England, but to be honest they should make up for that deficiency with the sheer mobility and sky-high skill level of their pack. Better ball-handling forwards than Brodie Retallick and Kieran Read, you will not see.
All eyes on
How could it be anyone other than Semesa Rokoduguni? The Fijian-born Bath winger has been tearing it up in the Premiership this season, and much responsibilty will rest on the men inside him to give as good service as he has been enjoying for his club. It is worth noting that when the Bath pack have been going backwards, and the backs therefore getting poorer quality ball, his influence has been negated. That said, if they can get him on the front foot, he is probably the most exciting attacking talent England have had for years.
It’s monumentally difficult to pick out just one member of this New Zealand team to focus on, but Brodie Retallick is truly one of the most spectacular players around to watch when on top form. His athleticism for a man of his size is astonishing, allowing him to pick up passes off his bootlaces when throwing his sizeable frame around the park at an impressive rate of knots. His ability at the contact area is also unparalleled, hardly surprising given his size, and let’s not forget that it was he who ripped the ball off England and charged up field to set up the winning try that broke English hearts in the first test in June. A weapon in both attack and defence.
Prediction
If England had their full compliment of players available, I truly believe they would have an excellent shot at winning this weekend. If that sounds like getting excuses in early, it isn’t – the All Blacks are coming to the end of a long season and have wobbled when put under pressure recently.
The flip side of that is that England have had very little time together, especially considering the new combinations that continue to be thrown together, and enter this one a little undercooked. It will be an New Zealand win, but it will not be the cricket score that many seem to be expecting. New Zealand by 9.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
20 replies on “Autumn Internationals 2014: England vs New Zealand Prediction”
I desperately want to deny this outrageously negative prediction.
But, that would be more wishful thinking than reality. I think we can match NZ in a forwards battle. It is when their forwards get in the loose that they begin to show us up. But my biggest concern is 10, 12, 13. Lack of expericence as a unit, and Farrells form. Most concerned in defence not attack.
I am going to remain positive. We might still win!
I’m enjoying the focus on Englands injuries here. Yes, there are injuries, but they can not be blamed in any way. As I commented recently on here, there are only really four starters missing (Corbs/Cole/Launch/Tuilagi), and the two props listed there haven’t played for England much at all for the last 12 months and have very able deputies.
No chance would a win tomorrow be a bigger shock than 2012. Not only has pretty much the same pack got two more years experience under their belt, but England have improved dramatically as a whole over the past two years.
Saying all that – still see NZ winning by 4.
Just missing Corbs, Cole, Launch and Manu Jacob? Those are massive losses. Corbs and Cole make a big difference to the scrum, but it’s the loss of their and Launchbury ‘ s breakdown work that is the real killer, especially against the ABs. Add to that the loss of our most potent attacking weapon in Manu then I think the injury card is fair enough.
That said, this is a much better side than last year, which was reasonably close, and the 1st 2 summer tests give me some hope, however misplaced.
These are big players, but Wilson and even more so Marler have proved themselves at this level.
The ABs are missing Nonu and Woodcock remember, which are big losses.
Tuilagi – we will miss for go forward ball, but having Barritt will be important to stopping Smith in that channel. We will miss the go forward ball in the centres but Roko will increase that off his wing and Vunipola has a big job.
The biggest miss for me is Launchbury. But, Attwood has been brilliant this year and I keep reading that he should get his chance.
I really think this is far too close to full strength England to be blaming injuries.
I agree with you about Launchbury, which is why I thought Lancaster might start with Kruis. Very similar in build and style to Launchbury. Very good in the contact area, the ruck, and the loose. Very quick on his feet for a big gut. Hope he gets decent time on the picth.
I’m not sure we will miss Tuilagi that much. Eastmond offers something very different than 12T or Barritt at 12. Out and out pace, and a great eye for the gap. With Barritt outside him, we may also see a different side to Barritt?? And yes he does have a different side!
I was just about to post when I saw your post appear saying exactly the same thing.
Basically, saying a decent XV can be formed from those missing through injury is seriously pushing it! The four you mention are definite starters when fit, but that’s it, and the back up forwards are pretty close anyway. Maybe the lack of experience for the replacement props and lock is where the weakness lies. In the backs, the fact is, we have no idea who is first choice at inside centre and wing and that’s the real problem.
New Zealand by less than 6.
4 massively influential starters…Corbisiero: when fit, arguably the most destructive scrummaging loosehead in the world; Cole: a mammoth worker around the park and who wins turn overs like a flanker; Launchbury: quite simply one of England’s best players; and Tuilagi: needs no further elaboration.
To say that injuries aren’t a factor is naïve and is an indicator of people jumping on the “England always have some excuse for losing” bandwagon. The fact that there are 3 uncapped players in the squad is telling.
Set piece will be hugely affected by the absence of not one but two of your regular lineout operators, in an area of the game which is becoming more crucial to dominate than the scrums are.
The bench is where another big issue lies, with Vunipola, Tom Youngs, Geoff Parling et al who would be the usual posse getting splinters in their bum are absent. Any supporter worth their salt knows that in big matches like this (particular with Lancaster’s bizarre bench etiquette) the game is won and loss via the impact the subs bench makes, they will either shore up where the starters are faltering, or conversely create a chink in the armour giving the other team an edge. The front row replacements are largely inexperienced which would create a huge disadvantage at scrum time should they not front up.
Am I getting the excuses in early? Too right I am.
Corbs has played less for England than Marler has… we can not point to that! Cole is a loss round the park, but he has not played for England all year and we have still visibly moved forward. People have short memories but just before Cole’s injury trouble people were calling for WIlson to come in any way. Tuilagi is a huge loss of go forward ball but the more defensive Barritt could well be useful against this opposition. Launchbury is the biggest loss in my opinion.
The bench is definitely an issue, more so in the forwards. In saying that though – Mullan, brilliant this year. Webber – ahead of Youngs anyway on form before injury. Brookes is inexperienced but performed very well against NZ this summer. Kruis is completely unknown at this level but I expect Attwood and Lawes to play most the game out. The backs are first choice from the bench.
I really hate seeing excuses like injuries made in professional sport. I might except it if half the team were out, but not at this level.
I don’t think its the players missing so much as the lack of time together for the replacements that will tell in the end.
Although I wouldn’t want anyone other than Eastmond at 12 it will be interesting to see which side of the debate was correct from 3rd test – can he stand up in defence every single time?
Not sure about May, think he could be in last chance saloon and wonder if Farrell’s lack of match practice may show SL
up as too loyal….think Ford is very unlucky not to start.
Lots of talk about injuries etc however, the only way that England could be beat NZ would be if NZ played below par and England, out of there skin!!!!
Cole was getting calls for Wilson to replace him (foolishly in my mind) whilst he was injured, it wasn’t a sudden thing, but a debilitating injury that grew over time. Corbs had been going very well this season, especially in the loose (important against NZ). Mako is amazingly useful.
It may only be 4 nailed on starters, but it’s also a lot of backup. With Corbs injured Mako would be guaranteed in the 23, with Launch out, Parling would have been in, with Parling out Slater would have been in. With Tuilagi out there’d be a fair chance that Burrell would have been starting. Going on this seasons form Haskell would have likely been in the 6 shirt, but illness will have crocked him for this week.
Yes, normally 4 starters, but also a significant number of players that would have played a part in replacing them. Who knows about Croft!
May played very well in the 1st NZ test and can feel disgruntled that he was dropped to play Manu out of position and then Ashton coming back.
Haskell tweeted this morning to say the rumours that he was not selected because of illness were untrue – he was completely available.
Agree that the back up is a bit of an issue I just don’t think this whole injury thing is as bad as everyone will have us believe.
Yes Kruis is 6th choice at lock – but Attwood would probably get to start with Launch out so it isn’t a disaster.
Again at prop, yes the first choice are brilliant, but the back ups have proved themselves again and again to cut it at this level so we can not point to that.
Burrell would surely not have been in over Barritt? Well I hope not anyway but maybe you’re right.
He was available, but he’s been laid up hospitalised for a week, not played for a few weeks, lost 5kg, and has only been back in training a week. Oh, and he’s not Farrell.
I’d prefer Barritt over Burrell at 13, but I don’t know if the coaches would, probably given his defence, but no guarantees.
Overall I think if they don’t want to play two small guys at 10/12 I’d have preferred Ford, 36, Barritt, since that would mean there’s no attacking or defending pressure on 36, allowing him to concentrate on making the right choices. He and Barritt are extremely good in defence, and both familiar with covering the 13 channel. No doubt Eastmond has been the form 12, but Ford has been the form 10, and allows Eastmond to shine. With Farrell inside and Barritt outside, Eastmond is going to struggle a lot more to show off the fireworks, hopefully the wingers will be working well with him.
Only tomorrow will tell.All the rest is speculation. Injuries? Every team has them. NZ haven’t had Woodcock for yonks. Nonu & Carter are also out & of the batallion of England’s injured, how many would start? 4? 1 more than NZ then, so IMO England supporters ought to forget the negative thinking on this. It’s out of your, or England’s, control, so the focus must be on the starters. Something has been made of the ABs being wobbley, @ end of a long hard road (sounds like a John Mayall song) & all those NARROW wins! I think the win narrow wins v Ireland were missed out; last yr & on their last NZ tour. Oh & the narrow wins over England last yr. And v Oz recently. The bottom line is that the ABs won, incl the last 4 v England. And loss v SA, away, by 2. So what? Can’t win ’em all, but some 20 or so on the bounce tells another (more real?) story. So, as Joe Schmidt opines, forget history, (those who) execute their game plan, on the day is all that matters. Onward to tomorrow @ The Orange Tree then. Go you ABs!
I don’t want to make excuses, and I believe we can win. BBC put it better than me though:
‘missing six British Lions from their pack, have a debutant on one wing and a centre partnership that has never played together before.’
That makes a difference whatever you say.
I am clearly far more pessimistic than others.I think the BBC comments say it as it really is and the AB’s backs are likely to tear us apart.I predict a very comfortable win for them-15/20 points
when its put like that not sure anyone can really say injuries shouldn’t be acknowledged..if AB’s were short 6 of their best then even they would be affected!!
It’s not just injuries of course. In terms of experience NZ hugely outweigh this England team.
They have more than twice the number of caps overall. Richie McCaw alone has twenty more caps than our locks and back row combined. Were the situation reversed we would expect an easy win and be disappointed with anything else.
I still hope and will be cheering my heart out but this England team are serious underdogs and it will be a massive upset if they win.
It will be a great result if we keep NZ within five points
I’ll say it now, England have a very small chance of winning here. NZ have largely been together since we last played them in June. That is a huge, huge advantage. NZ by ten, unfortunately
Henry, stu If it were NZ saying this, I guarantee, it would be regarded as making… excuses.
Banastre Wrong… again.