Autumn Internationals 2014: Ireland vs South Africa Prediction

When asked whether facing South Africa missing several key players presented Ireland with a ‘mission impossible’ last week Joe Schmidt was frank in his admission that it is ‘mission really tough’ – not exactly an epic blockbuster title in the making, but the odds are heavily stacked against Ireland.

Ireland’s most recent win in the fixture, their fourth overall, was a 15-10 defeat of South Africa at Croke Park in November 2009, but after narrow home defeats in 2010 and 2012 it will take a mammoth effort from an injury-ravaged squad to avoid a third straight defeat.

Ireland

Not one to steer clear of the big decisions Joe Schmidt threw something of a curveball in selecting Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne in an altogether new-look midfield. We had expected one or the other to pair up with Gordon D’Arcy in the centre, so it’s a bold decision but one which Schmidt is confident can pay off.

Rory Best (calf) is the most recent casualty so Sean Cronin comes into the middle of a depleted front-row already weakened by the loss of Cian Healy, while questions remain over the fitness of Mike Ross, who is a ‘needs-must’ selection. Cronin at least will carry more ball than Best.

At least Johnny Sexton provided some much needed positive news on the injury front early in the week, as it emerged that his early withdrawal from Racing Metro’s weekend loss to Oyonnax was planned in advance. Elsewhere, Tommy Bowe returns to Irish colours after missing the Six Nations and Argentina tour.

South Africa

Just to accentuate the scale of Ireland’s challenge, Heyneke Meyer has named the same Springboks starting XV from their recent Rugby Championship win over the All Blacks, rubbishing any hopes that the Boks might rest some experienced campaigners with a gruelling end of season schedule ahead.

Experienced duo Fourie du Preez and Ruan Pienaar will miss the entire tour so Francois Hougaard remains at scrum-half with exciting prospect Handré Pollard his half-back partner. One of three test centurions lining out for South Africa, Jean de Villiers will captain from centre.

Bryan Habana and Victor Matfield are the others with over 100 caps in the bank. Meyer was patently glad to be able to select an unchanged side, and with a staggering 988 caps in the match day squad, the Six Nations champions are certainly not going to be taking this one lightly.

All eyes on

I’ve cheated slightly and picked out Ireland’s centre pairing of Robbie Henshaw & Jared Payne as a combination to watch. 21 year old Henshaw wins his fourth cap in a position he’s unfamiliar with – inside centre. It’s an incredibly tough ask given the calibre of his direct opponent, but physicality-wise he’s been ready for some time and noises from the Irish camp about his link up with Payne are positive. I’ll reluctantly suggest that wearing number 12 automatically takes pressure off Henshaw’s young Irish shoulders as inevitable comparisons with O’Driscoll are made. It’s a simplistic and highly questionable theory but Payne, a New Zealander by birth, should be less affected in that respect when he makes his international debut.

A classy act for two seasons, Payne has looked every bit an international in waiting, albeit primarily at fullback and his form has dipped this season with the move to 13 not yet clicking at Ulster. Nonetheless he’s trained sufficiently well to convince Schmidt that the transition can work.

For South Africa, a veteran of three Junior World Championships, Handré Pollard, is the man to watch. He was a member of the victorious 2012 Baby Boks squad, and the 2014 IRB Junior Player of the Year, but it was the two-try, match-winning performance against the All Blacks just a few weeks ago that marked the moment South Africa’s rising star hit the world stage in a big way.

With an excellent pass and the physicality to keep defences on their toes, Pollard provides far more of a threat with the ball in hand than predecessor Morne Steyn, and the perfect foil for fullback Willie le Roux’s unpredictability.

Prediction

South Africa may have added to their attacking repertoire but they remain dedicated to the fundamental element of their game plan – power in the collisions and dominance of the set piece. It is going to be brutally physical on Saturday, and without two key ball carriers in Cian Healy and Sean O’Brien, Ireland could struggle to hurt the Springbok defence enough to force them onto the back foot.

Healy’s absence is a double blow given the enormity of the task in the front-row. With Rory Best out and Ross far from 100%, Jack McGrath will bear much of the responsibility in the set-piece whilst also being asked to fill Healy’s boots in terms of ball carrying.

Ireland’s best chance is in the territorial battle, where Conor Murray can play a lead role in putting up contestable garryowens, but in the end it seems unlikely to provide a solid platform. South Africa by 10.

By Dave Blair (@viscount_dave)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images