Autumn Internationals 2014: Wales vs Australia Prediction

It’s not easy being a Welsh fan. Not that I’d know, of course – I’m English. But before I get accused of being anti-Welsh, when I say “it’s not easy”, I mean it as a complement. Being English, all we’ve had to put up with is a decade of mediocrity to which the generic reaction has become one of numb despondency, notwithstanding the budding shoots of hope that have been emerging over the last couple of years.

But for the Welsh, it’s not been particularly good for the old ticker. Glorious highs – such as Six Nations titles, Grand Slams, trouncing the English – have been followed inevitably by terrible lows, such as World Cup Group Stage elimination, or eight consecutive losses in 2012-13. But nothing has bitten harder than their consistent inability to beat one of the Southern Hemisphere giants.

It seems inevitable that every time the Welsh play one of the ‘Big Three’, they will play well, they will win admirers, but they will ultimately lose. Take the summer tour in South Africa as a prime example – from 30-17 up with 10 minutes to play, two late tries saw then fall to agonising defeat once again. But this isn’t anything new, sadly. Their opponents on Saturday also have a hoodoo on this talented Welsh side – as well as whitewashing the series with an understrength side in 2012, they also squeezed past their hosts by less than a converted score on their last three visits to the Millennium Stadium.

The reasons for this are best analysed by a psychologist. Any rugby fan worth their salt will know the undoubted quality of this Welsh side, the attacking menace and the ferocity of their defence. When they get it right, they can simply blow quality teams out of the water. But it comes down to self-belief and knowledge. The knowledge that – against a much-maligned Wallaby side with a brand new head coach – they will never have a better opportunity to break their Southern Hemisphere drought.

Wales

Jonathan Davies has failed to recover from injury in time to face Australia, meaning gargantuan wing George North will switch to midfield. He has had experience playing at centre but this is his first outing there this season. He is still very much a wing by trade, and positionally he can be exposed – with Bernard Foley at 10, who is a master at manipulating defences, that will have been noted.

Liam Williams takes North’s spot on the wing with Leigh Halfpenny at full-back, with Rhys Webb selected at scrum-half ahead of Mike Phillips, partnering clubmate Dan Biggar in the half-backs. Samson Lee takes the tight-head shirt and Jake Ball partners Alun Wyn Jones in the engine room.

Australia

Melbourne Rebels flanker Sean McMahon will make his senior Australia debut against Wales in Cardiff on Saturday. The 20-year-old replaces injured Scott Fardy on the blindside and is one of two changes to the side that agonisingly lost 29-28 to New Zealand in October.

Kurindrani holds onto the 13 shirt opposite George North. He seems to get better with each game for the Wallabies, but his positioning is still not the greatest and you get the impression that he is a little clumsy going into the tackle situation – something Wales can certainly look to exploit.

The other change sees number eight Ben McCalman takes over from Scott Higginbotham, who is also sidelined through injury. Quade Cooper and Will Genia are dropped to the bench after starting in the win over Barbarians at Twickenham, with the Waratahs duo of Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley taking their place.

All Eyes On

It will have been a difficult week for Liam Williams, with the Scarlets man the focus of a fair amount of media scrutiny, with particular attention paid to his temperament in pressure situations. He probably doesn’t need reminding that it was his gutsy-but-ultimately-illegal, last-ditch, no-arms tackle that cost his side a famous win against the South Africans in the summer, but he can’t let that affect his game. He’s slightly out of position on the wing, but he’s versatile enough to have an impact from there. He’s safe as houses under the high ball, a ferocious tackler and a smart line-picker with plenty of pace – but he needs to make sure he keeps his head in what is sure to be a pressure cooker atmosphere at the Millennium Stadium.

When you look down the teamsheet for the visitors, there’s a fair few names that those who don’t follow Super Rugby will find unfamiliar, but the one that really jumps out is that of Sean McMahon, the young but supremely talented blindside flanker. If he seems a surprising selection, it is – despite the extensive injury list the Wallabies have in the back row. McMahon himself had actually booked a holiday to Mexico, assuming he would be surplus to requirements. But the big flanker won’t be an unknown for too much longer – he has caught the eye this year with some monumental shifts for the Rebels that saw him named Super Rugby rookie of the year and, in partnering Wallabies captain, he has a chance to start one of the most promising back-row partnerships in international rugby. Like Williams though, it will all come down to keeping his head and taking his chances.

Prediction

With Wales at home, I’d usually plump for a home win, but I can’t get that niggling suspicion out of my head that the new coach and a good win over the Baabaas may have ignited some confidence in this struggling Australia side and I suspect that will mean that we’re in for another pant-soilingly tense encounter. That said, Wales will want this game more than ever and, roared on by the ever-vocal Cardiff faithful, I can see them breaking their southern hemisphere hoodoo. Wales by 3.

By Mike Cooper (@RuckedOver)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images