It’s been a funny old Autumn for Wales so far. Inspired in parts against Australia, but ultimately coming off second-best again, and very much uninspired against Fiji but emerging from that game as victors. Luckily for us neutrals, games against New Zealand seem to bring out the best in the men in red – although, on the flip side, they also seem to bring out the best in the All Blacks too. Which is why they haven’t lost to their hosts on Saturday since 1953.

I remember when this fixture really first caught my eye – in the 2003 World Cup group stage. The All Blacks were favourites for the tournament, as usual, and Wales had been written off after a pretty dismal year in the build up. But boy, did they play that day. Inspired by Shane Williams, the Welsh stumbled across a high-tempo game which rattled the men in black in a pulsating encounter, even if they did end up falling just short at 53 – 37, having lead 37 – 33 at the start of the second half. And who was the Wales coach back then? A Mr Steve Hansen.

Hansen knows what to expect from this fixture more than anyone else. Let’s hope we get more of the same.

Wales

Leigh Halfpenny has returned from concussion to take over from Liam Williams at full-back, with the Scarlets man unlucky (by Gatland’s own omission) to be relegated to the bench. Jonathan Davies, Dan Biggar and Rhys Webb also return from injuries, with Scott Williams and the under-fire Rhys Priestland – who missed the chance to impress against Fiji – dropped from the squad completely. Mike Phillips returns to the bench.

Up front Jake Ball and Alun Wyn Jones return at lock and Paul James at prop, with Bradley Davies and Gethin Jenkins both nursing injuries and, after his controversial appearance for Gloucester on Friday, Richard Hibbard is restored to the Wales hooking berth. Young Ospreys prop Nicky Smith is on the bench, with the prospect of playing his second cap against the World Champions.

It’s a heck of a strong line-up for the Welsh on paper. In stark comparison to the injury-ravaged English and Irish, it’s hard to see who else might fit into the side if they were fit. The starting side contains 10 British and Irish Lions, including the entirety of the outside backs, and so there is no shortage of talent there. But the only concerns that do arise are from the fact that so many of the key players who are returning – Davies, Halfpenny, Hibbard and Biggar – are all returning from injuries, whether long or short term. If there is any self-doubt relating to fitness lingering in any of their minds, or any element of rustiness, it will be ruthlessly exploited by the All Blacks.

New Zealand

As expected, Steve Hansen has once again made sweeping changes to the side that narrowly squeezed past Scotland last weekend. Of particular note, Richie McCaw will lead New Zealand for the 100th time on Saturday having captained the side for the first time 10 years ago. The flanker, who gives durability new meaning, is the only player to remain in the side after last week, albeit he switches back to his favoured openside role.

The All Blacks’ back division has five changes with only wing Charles Piutau and Smith keeping their places, which means that there are no places – even on the bench – for the likes of Cory Jane and Israel Dagg. Sonny Bill and Conrad Smith once again pair up in the midfield, but the other headline for the men in black is that Dan Carter is nowhere to be seen, with Steve Hansen feeling he is still rusty after his long layoff, despite playing last week. The precocious talent of Beauden Barrett has been given the nod instead.

It frankly irritates me that a side can be without the phenomenal qualities of Dan Carter, Israel Dagg and Cory Jane, and still bring in players such as Barrett, Smith and Piutau – who all offer different, but equally as potent, threats.

Although there is so much star-factor out in the backs and it is they who usually garner the critics, it is the pack that continues to impress me week-in, week-out. Keiran “Inspector Gadget” Read aside, there is nothing flashy about them, but the likes of McCaw, Retallick, Kaino and Crockett all go about their games without fuss, but to devastating effect. They hit rucks hard, they time their breakdown interventions and they almost always provide a perfect platform for their backline to play off – it’s the usual All Blacks mantra: do the basics, but do them very, very well.

All Eyes On

It’s a common misconception that the All Blacks hate kicking and love to run it out from absolutely everywhere. It’s understandable as, when they do counter-attack, they usually do so to devastating effect, but they actually kick more than any other side, keeping teams locked in their own halves and forcing them to kick loosely. That’s why Rhys Webb has such a big job on Saturday – teams that beat the All Blacks win the territory battle. We all know about Webb’s superb nose for a gap and his impressive bursts of acceleration, but against the World Champions he will have to box kick often and with great accuracy, forcing the back three into mistakes. He will also have to sharpen up his decision making after throwing a couple of intercepts against the Wallabies a fortnight ago.

It’s hard to really pick any sort of chink within the visitors’ armour but I feel personally that the one position where they lack a world class operator is at hooker, where Dane Coles occupies the two shirt. He showed against England that his temperament isn’t always up to scratch and I have seen him go to bits in the lineout on occasion, so there is an area for both the front row and for Alun Wyn Jones to exploit. Of course, going forward he is an extremely gifted player with very soft hands for a ‘fatty’, but – like the rest of the side – he needs to focus on doing the boring, unsexy parts of the job to a high standard before he can think about x-factor contributions elsewhere. And staying on the field would help, too.

Prediction

Wales haven’t been overly impressive this Autumn but I suspect that this will be a lot closer than many people think. The All Blacks haven’t been at their fluent best either and this is an experienced and powerful Welsh side – who knows what might happen if they get an early lead and the Millennium Stadium crowd gets vocal? It’s a big if though, and I think that the visitors just have that bit more x-factor and – crucially – a winning mentality. All Blacks by 6.

By Mike Cooper (@RuckedOver)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images