Autumn Internationals 2014: Wales vs South Africa Prediction

Look up the definition of ‘grumpy’ and you’ll likely see a photograph of Shaun Edwards and Warren Gatland from their press conference earlier this week, as they were quizzed about job pressure after yet another defeat against a southern hemisphere side. They said that ‘there’s always pressure in this job’ and referred to their Six Nations record – but that is missing the point. A team of Wales’ quality should expect the success they’ve had in Europe – they should not have to expect defeat after defeat against Southern Hemisphere sides who, on paper, are not overly superior. Make no mistake, the pressure is on.

The bad news is that Wales’ overall record against the Springboks is even worse than their one against the All Blacks. They have won just once, in 1999, so to discount, or trivialise, the pressure is simply wrong. The trick, though, is to accept that pressure, enjoy it, and turn it round onto your opponents. If Gatland’s men can get themselves out into a lead, then the pressure suddenly turns onto the visitors, who don’t want to be only the second South African side to lose to Wales. And the Millennium Stadium is one hell of a cooker in which to turn up the heat.

Wales

Warren Gatland has suffered a huge blow ahead of Saturday’s game with the news that George North is ruled out because of a concussion suffered last weekend against the All Blacks. The less-physically imposing – but nevertheless always willing and committed – Liam Williams takes his place on the wing, no doubt desperate to erase memories of his last-minute shoulder charge which handed a penalty try and the game to the Springboks in Nelspruit.

The change on the wing is one of three alterations with Gethin Jenkins starting at loose-head and Scott Baldwin coming in at hooker. The duo replace Paul James and Richard Hibbard respectively who were not available for the game as it falls outside of the international window.

There will have been one word banded about the changing room this week, by both the coaches and the players: physicality. This is not just a buzz-word (although professional teams do like a good buzz-word) but has to be at the forefront of their mind in everything they do on Saturday afternoon. Even without North, they have backs with the speed, power and intelligence to really take the game to their illustrious opponents, but it is in the tight where they really need to earn their corn.

The front five, in particular, need to summon the ‘Spirit of 2013′, when they simply annihilated their English counterparts with a breathtaking display of physicality and aggression in both the set piece and the breakdown. With the magic dust out wide, the pack need to match the visitors’ intensity in the contact area around the breakdown, with a good linespeed and double-team tackles on the danger-men like Duane Vermeulen. Kill the Sprinbok momentum at source, and the crowd may just start to believe.

South Africa

Heyneke Meyer has been forced to draft in some new faces for the match at the Millennium Stadium – although several of the changes see the return of players rested for their last game against Italy. In the front-row, Tendai Mtawarira and Bismarck du Plessis start. There is a changing of the guard in the back three, too, with Willie le Roux, Cornal Hendricks and Lwazi Mvovo all getting the nod as they come in for JP Pietersen, Johan Goosen and Bryan Habana.

South Africa have been a bit hard to nail down this Autumn – bullied against the Irish, slick and accurate against the English and then, for large parts of the game, disinterested against the Italians. Duane Vermeulen admitted that the intensity wasn’t there in Dublin, perhaps due to some element of complacency following their defeat of the almighty All Blacks, but they certainly picked it up at Twickenham the next week. It strikes me that they are potentially only really getting ‘up’ for games in which they feel threatened, so I suppose it is a compliment to the Welsh that I do not see there being any complacency at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday.

They do look much more controlled and accurate, however, with Pat Lambie steering the ship in the 10 shirt. There is no doubt that Handre Pollard is a man of the future, but Lambie has demonstrated a cool head under pressure and the ability to vary his game delightfully, and always with crisp execution. So much of the South African game involves Lambie running the show, with Le Roux injecting pace at first receiver at the opportune time, always providing another option on either side of the breakdown. The hosts will have their work cut out to deal with that dual creative threat.

All Eyes On

The baton of winding up the opposition has been passed by Rhys Webb (who, last week, claimed the All Blacks were ‘there for the taking’) to Jake Ball, who has announced that ‘nothing’ worries him about the South Africans. Well, I can see what he’s getting at – the Welsh certainly can’t afford to be timid against the Springboks, but all he would have done unfortunately is get the men in green angry (even angrier than normal). And you won’t like them when their angry (-ier than normal). If Ball is going to pop out with little gems like that in the press, he better back it up or else the visitors will give him something to worry about. We can bang on about the necessity to secure good first phase ball all we want, but actually what a lot of it will come down to is who wants to smash their opponent more.

On the flip side for the Springboks, Player of the Year nominee Willie Le Roux is a key cog within this well-oiled South African machine. Le Roux has an ability to drift in and out of games, but when he decides to step into them he, more often than not, has a devastating impact. Often sitting back and watching the defensive line for the first couple of phases, the full back has the knack of spotting mismatches and exploding into the line to create or exploit the opportunities. He must be heavily marked.

Prediction

There’s been plenty of noise being made about pressure, but if Wales are to end their hoodoo against the Boks, it must start – and end – with brutal and relentless physicality. Bordering on violence. If the crowd can get into the game and the momentum swings their way – as it did in the second test in the summer – then there is every chance that there will be a jinx-breaking win on the cards. But, as it stands, I don’t think the hosts have the confidence or the conviction to see out a win against one of the big three and, no matter how much Gatland or Edwards protest, the results back that up. The good news is that I’m usually miles off with my predictions, but I sense another afternoon of heartbreak in Cardiff. South Africa by 4.

By Mike Cooper (@RuckedOver)