Aviva Premiership 2014/2015: Round 12 Predictions

Northampton Saints vs Newcastle Falcons

Noprthampton return home to Franklin’s Gardens after defeating Harlequins at Twickenham in a game they dominated in no area other than the scoreboard. Their victory despite a lack of possession or territory was alarmingly reminiscent of the way the All Blacks win, taking their chances when they come along and otherwise defending reasonably resolutely. Their last two wins, in fact, have been backs-to-the-wall affairs. Newcastle, meanwhile, came breathtakingly close to upsetting Saracens at Kingston Park, only for a lat minute conversion to drift agonisingly wide. They’ll take plenty of hope from that game, however, and belief that they can live with the best sides in the league.

The Saints are the best side in the league at the moment, and will be a much more difficult prospect at Franklin’s Gardens than Saracens were at Kingston Park. Northampton by 20.

Saracens vs London Irish

Speaking of Saracens, they open Saturday’s action against London Irish, their surprise nemesis from last season when the Exiles shocked everyone to win at Allianz Park and halt a seemingly unstoppable winning run. And after their narrow, wobbly win over Newcastle last weekend, allied with Irish’s first win since September, this game take on increased importance. The home side will still be hot favourites, but you sense they need a good performance as well as a comfortable victory in order to quell the increasing suspicion that they are not quite the side that swept most before them last season. Owen Farrell is preferred at fly-half and will be keenly under the microscope once again, especially up against the more creatively-gifted Shane Geraghty.

That Saracens almost came unstuck last weekend probably works against London Irish, as the home side will be keen to make amends and put in a good performance. Don’t expect a repeat of last year’s shock result. Saracens by 12.

Exeter Chiefs vs Gloucester Rugby

Another west country derby, and one which pits two sides who have slumped to poor runs of form against each other. The Chiefs, after galloping into second place, have fallen to consecutive losses to Sale and Bath, the latter of whom also dispatched Gloucester a couple of weeks ago. The Cherry and Whites, with just one win in their last six, are in something of a crisis – for all their investment in the off season, things on the pitch are taking longer to gel than anyone would have liked, not least new director of rugby David Humphreys, who has admitted that he would sacrifice some of the club’s long term vision for a much needed brace of wins in the short term. James Hook is given another chance at 10, despite the impressive cameo of Billy Burns from the bench last weekend, while Exeter have also put their trust in those who propelled them to the summit of the table earlier this season.

Both sides desperately need a win, and at home it is the Chiefs who are more likely to get it – they’ve lost just once at Sandy Park this season. Exeter by 5.

Leicester Tigers vs Bath Rugby

The 45-0 win for the men from Bath in the reverse fixture at the Rec earlier this season sent shockwaves through the rugby community. Sure, Leicester were understrength and don’t have a great record there, but the ruthless manner in which the hosts nilled their visitors was a real statement. Bath have, a brief back-row injury crisis aside, gone from strength to strength and sit in second place, just one point behind Saints and really the only side to have matched the leaders’ impressive pace this year. The Tigers have stumbled through the season thus far and despite a series of uninspiring performances, have lost only once since the beginning of October. They will be raring for revenge in this game, and last weekend’s comeback win against Sale showed, really for the first time this season, the old bite to their game. Bath, intriguingly, have handed the 13 shirt to Sam Burgess, pitting him against Leicester’s elusive Fijian, Vereniki Goneva. It will be a stern test of his defensive credentials.

Bath are on a relentlessly upwards curve, but you just get the feeling that something might be brewing at Welford Road once again. They traditionally find form in the New Year; I’m going to take a punt and say that will start now. Leicester by 2.

Wasps vs Sale Sharks

Wasps are on a two game unbeaten run, a ‘streak’ they have not bettered in the league this season. Their home record, on the other hand, is excellent, although how they fare at the Ricoh Arena without a full stadium behind them will be interesting to see. Sale will be livid that they couldn’t convert a 15 point lead against the Tigers last weekend, and intriguingly have replaced Wasps old boy Danny Cipirani with Joe Ford at fly-half. Sale’s doggedness has got them impressively far this season, but against the Midlands’ newest free-scoring tenants, you sense they might need a little more.

Wasps to make it two from two at their new Coventry home. Wasps by 9.

London Welsh vs Harlequins

The weekend’s final action comes from the Kassam Stadium, where, once again, London Welsh are looking for their first win of the season and their first points since round two. Last weekend’s loss to London Irish was a success only in the fact that it was just the second time they had not gifted their opponent a winning bonus point this season, and the 19 point loss margin was their smallest to date. Harlequins’ attack couldn’t do enough to beat Northampton last week despite enjoying large swathes of territory and possession, but they should enjoy far greater success against the Welsh Exiles, whose defence has redefined the definition of ‘holey’.

Quins aren’t quite the force they once were, but they should return to comfortable winning ways in Oxford. Harlequins by 22.

What do you make of our predictions for the weekend?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images