Aviva Premiership 2014/2015: Round 13 Predictions

Gloucester Rugby vs Saracens

Gloucester’s backs-to-the-wall win away at Exeter last weekend was the first time this season they have shown true backbone to grind out a tough win, and it was exactly what the doctor ordered. As a result, they’ve stuck with the same XV that did the business at Sandy Park, with marquee signing Richard Hibbard left on the bench. They wouldn’t really have wanted to back that win up with a game against Saracens, a team they’ve beaten only once since 2010. Last season’s finalists haven’t quite been setting the pace as they have done for the past couple of years, but have quietly and ruthlessly been going about their business to leave them in touch with the leaders. They name a strong side with Owen Farrell at fly-half and former Gloucester skipper Jim Hamilton in the engine room, while the battle for go forward between the two England number eights Billy Vunipola and Ben Morgan will be one to really relish, and no less than an audition for the Six Nations shirt, you suspect.

Gloucester might be about to turn their season around, but Saracens will be too strong for them. Saracens by 5.

Sale Sharks vs Northampton Saints

Sale’s good run of form has been brought to a halt in recent weeks with losses to Leicester and Wasps on consecutive weekends, and it doesn’t get any easier now with the visit of the Premiership pace-setters Northampton. The Sharks rested a few players for the trip to Coventry and paid for it, but have reinstated all their regulars for this one. The headline battle is undoubtedly at fly-half, where Danny Cipriani faces Stephen Myler. These two are currently fourth and third respectively in the England fly-half rankings, and unless Cipriani can do something this weekend, ahead of next week’s squad announcement, to convince Lancaster to include him, he may decide to head to France and chase the Euro, as has been heavily rumoured. As for Myler, he’s in the form of his life and is showing a creative side to his game that is truly a joy to watch.

With the form that the Saints are in, this should be a regulation win for them – even against a very handy Sale side. Northampton by 10.

Bath Rugby vs Wasps

This one looks like the game of the weekend, in terms of the styles of play of the teams involved, at least. Both will go into the game with a real desire to give the ball some air, and both have the players with the quality to pull it off. Kyle Eastmond is a real loss in Bath’s midfield, but Jonathan Joseph is at least back in the 13 shirt – Sam Burgess moves to his (presumably) preferred 12 shirt. Semesa Rokodoguni and Christian Wade might not be facing each other on the pitch, but theirs is a battle with real England connotations. Wade is on fire at the moment, while Roko is out of favour at Bath but gets his chance this weekend. He needs to perform. Meanwhile, Nick Auterac, Ross Batty and Henry Thomas are rotated into the front row after last week’s poor showing in the scrum.

It should be a belter of a game and if conditions stay dry, we will be in for plenty of tries. Bath to make home advantage count. Bath by 6.

Harlequins vs Leicester Tigers

Neither of these sides are enjoying the season they would have hoped for, but both can welcome back key individuals this week. Joe Marler and Chris Robshaw return in the Harlequins pack, while for Leicester Tom Croft is named on the blindside flank and Logovi’i Mulipola is back amongst the replacements. Despite the Tigers being a shadow of the team of a few seasons ago, they have only lost once in the league since the beginning of October – and that was away at Northampton (although yes, they probably should have won that against 14 men). Quins have a good recent history in this fixture, winning six of the last nine encounters, while the Tigers have not won at The Stoop since 2012.

The return of a few key figures will be a boon for Quins, but it does feel like the Tigers are starting to build a bit of momentum. I can’t imagine it’ll be too thrilling a game with both sides desperate for a win, but I’m backing the Tigers to edge it. Leicester by 3.

Newcastle Falcons vs London Welsh

This, really, is it for London Welsh. They are essentially relegated regardless, but fail to win here and it will be curtains for certain. Newcastle won plenty of plaudits for the way they played at Northampton last weekend, throwing the ball around to good effect to exploit the Saints’ defensive frailties. It will be intriguing to see if they do likewise here, or if they shut up shop a bit in search of a win that would rubber stamp their Premiership status for another year. They’ve bizarrely dropped one of the heroes of last week, with Chris Harris named on the bench, but in fairness Sinoti Sinoti comes back in, a man who has been one of their primary threats thus far this season.

The end of the road for London Welsh, I think. Newcastle by 13.

London Irish vs Exeter Chiefs

It’s been a pretty standard season for the Exiles – aside from an impressive win away at Leicester (think Saracens last season), they have largely flattered to deceive. They have probably the weakest scrum in the league, which is always going to make things difficult, and they rotate this week, bringing in Halani Aulika for Geoff Cross at tighthead. The real intrigue in this fixture, however, surrounds Exeter and how they bounce back from last week’s loss to Gloucester. They desperately need to arrest a slide that has seen them lose the last three on the bounce, and another here would threaten to undo all the good work that saw them rise as high as second earlier in the season. Jack Nowell will be keen to keep his good form going with the England squad announcement looming, but will have to be on his game defensively against Alex Lewington, a real live-wire who has scored some superb tries this season.

The Chiefs to bounce back with a win in Reading. Exeter by 7.

How do you see the weekend panning out?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images