Aviva Premiership 2014/2015: Round 19 Predictions

Newcastle Falcons vs Bath Rugby

Bath have turned their blip in form on its head with two wins in the last two rounds, although the manner of those victories – over Sale and London Welsh – haven’t been as convincing as they might have liked. The big selection news ahead of this game is that Sam Burgess starts at blindside flanker, and it will be interesting to see how he copes with the responsibility of having to have an influence on the breakdown. Ollie Devoto takes his spot at 12, suggesting Bath will look to open the game up and use his added distribution. Like Bath, the Falcons crashed out of European competition last weekend, and both sides now have their sights firmly set on the league – although Newcastle really have little left to play for.

With that in mind, and Bath gunning for a top four spot, it’s difficult to see anything other than an away win occurring here. Bath by 10.

Harlequins vs Gloucester Rugby

Neither of these sides are where they would like to be in the table. Two points separate Quins in eighth and Gloucester in ninth, but neither look likely to make a late charge for the top six, or even seven, and Champions Cup spots. For the loser of this game, that dream will definitely die, which does add intrigue. Harlequins have significant injury concerns, most notably in the front row where Matt Shields starts at tighthead, and in the centre where young Harry Sloan is partnered by Aseli Tikiroituma, who is more commonly found on the wing. That selection could be an exciting one, however, and Quins are matched by Gloucester in terms of pace in the backline with seasoned campaigners Jonny May and Charlie Sharples both capable of scorching scores. If conditions remain good, it could be a very open game.

Quins have had a week off whereas Gloucester played a hard-fought European game against Connacht last weekend. That, allied with home advantage, makes Quins favourites. Harlequins by 5.

Saracens vs Leicester Tigers

Saracens sit in second and the Tigers are in fourth, but just two points separate the sides – which gives you an idea of the significance of this game. This fixture last year saw Sarries eviscerate the men from the Midlands 49-10, but a repeat of that is unlikely. The Tigers have an immensely strong pack, as always, but it will be in the backs where they could be found out, especially on the fast track at Allianz Park. Saracens welcome back England centre Brad Barritt, and he partners last weekend’s hero Marcelo Bosch in the centres. That Racing Métro game was brutally physical for Saracens, who spent most of it defending, and whether it will have taken a toll remains to be seen. For the Tigers, the challenge will be to add another string to their attacking bow – they have scored the second fewest tries in the league this year, and it is unlikely they will be able to rely on their pack to steamroll a similarly mammoth Saracens unit.

Leicester have won six in a row in the league, which has seen them shoot back into the play-off spots, but that run is likely to come to an end this weekend. Saracens by 6.

Exeter Chiefs vs Northampton Saints

The big question around this game is whether Northampton can bounce back mentally from their humbling at the hands of Clermont last weekend. They were blown away by one of the most complete performances you are likely to see from any side, but they must accept that it was a freak result because Exeter are sure to show them no mercy. The Chiefs sit just outside the play-off spots and know a loss here would be a titanic blow to their chances of leaping back into the top four, especially with some tough games to come. It’s a monumentally difficult game to call, but before they spanked Wasps 52-30, Northampton had been stuttering slightly in the league. They also lost to Exeter at Franklin’s Gardens way back in November, one of just two home losses all season.

Northampton are all but guaranteed a home semi-final, while the Chiefs are anything but guaranteed any kind of semi-final at all. That increased hunger, as well as home advantage, swings it marginally in their favour. Exeter by 1.

London Welsh vs Wasps

London Welsh today announced that they had reached an agreement with Premiership Rugby over the discrepancy in funding that, they claim, has left them severely hamstrung when it comes to competing with the other teams in this league. It is great news for the future of the club, but it will not make a shred of difference to the result at the Kassam Stadium this weekend. Wasps battled valiantly against Toulon and showed how dangerous a team they are in the wide spaces with two superbly worked tries. This week Alapati Leiua joins up with Elliot Daly in the centres, a partnership which marries explosive power and dazzling pace.

Wasps know anything other than five points is unacceptable if they are to keep the pace with the play-off contenders. They will get it comfortably. Wasps by 35.

London Irish vs Sale Sharks

Sale, like Wasps, are just slipping away from the group at the top of the table. They are still in with a shout of the play-offs, but a more realistic goal will be to confirm Champions Cup rugby for another season. If that is to be the case, this is exactly the kind of game that they need to be winning. London Irish are capable of playing some good rugby, but they have not been consistently good enough to pose any type of real threat to the top teams this year. Sale will fancy their pack to rip into a London Irish unit that has too often underwhelmed, so do not be surprised to see them stick it up the jumper early on. If they get a scoreboard advantage, then Danny Cipriani and Chris Cusiter can take over as they chase what would be a hugely useful try bonus point.

Of course, you’ve got to win the game first and foremost, but this rejuvenated Sale side has more than enough to do that. Sale by 9.

How do you see the weekend going?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images