Aviva Premiership 2014/2015: Round 9 Predictions

Bath vs Harlequins

Sam Burgess is on the bench. Now we’ve got that out of the way, let’s look ahead to the actual game, because his presence is unlikely to have much to do with the outcome (in fact he’s probably most likely to feature once that has been decided). Harlequins come into it on the back of a disappointing home loss to Sale, that undid all of their good work after an impressive win over Gloucester on the road. In fact, their form this season reads WLWLWLWL – so by that token they should win this weekend. Bath entrust Ollie Devoto with the number 10 jersey, switching Gavin Henson to fullback. As ever there’s a real potency to their backline, but the same can be said of Quins so if conditions are good, we could be in for a belter of a game under the lights at the Rec.

Quins haven’t won at Bath’s home ground since 2011 and the last five of these fixtures have been won by the home side – I can’t see any reason for that to change this weekend. Bath by 7.

Leicester Tigers vs Wasps

A decade ago this was the bona fide heavyweight clash of the Premiership, and if both side’s auras have slipped a bit since then there is still plenty of intrigue surrounding a fixture that usually produces an entertaining affair. Staggeringly, the last 11 occurences of this game have been won by the home side, and Wasps have named a side that suggests they expect that might be the case again this weekend, resting several of their key players. Ashley Johnson and Nathan Hughes, their two best players so far this season and two men so vital to the momentum their pack generates, are named on the bench, while Tom Varndell wins a rare start on the wing in place of Christian Wade. The Tigers hand a surprise start to Laurence Pearce, the rough diamond acquired from Rotherham over the summer. Tom Youngs returns from injury lay-off to complete their first choice front row with Marcos Ayerza and Dan Cole, while Tom Croft could get his first action this season from the bench.

There’s been much talk of the Tigers’ crisis this season and yet they’ve leapfrogged Wasps and now sit in fifth, just four points behind Saracens in fourth. They may not be playing that well but they are back to winning ways and with several of their big names back, plus a weakened Wasps team opposite them, they should continue that trend. Leicester by 10.

Exeter Chiefs vs Saracens

What a game this is set to be. Exeter have astounded everyone (aside from their own fans, you suspect) with a blistering run of form that has seen them climb to second in the table, equal on points with leaders Northampton, and are playing some astonishingly good rugby. Saracens, meanwhile, are in a low patch with just one win from their last four games. They’ve not won on the road since 20th September and while nobody will be panicking yet, a trip to the form side in the league is not what the doctor ordered. There are tasty head to head battles all over but the duel between Jamie George and Luke Cowan-Dickie at hooker is one that could be set to repeat itself for the long-term England jersey in years to come.

Exeter haven’t beaten Sarries for two years, but despite an outrageously strong bench for the visitors that boasts the returning Mako Vunipola and the exciting Mario Itoje amongst others, I think that’ll change this weekend. Exeter by 2.

London Irish vs Gloucester Rugby

This game sees two sides horrendously out of form do battle. Gloucester’s last win was on 4th October, while London Irish’s was on 22nd September – bizarrely, both were against the Tigers. Equally as bizarrely, the last four games between these two sides have been won by the away team, which would appear to make Gloucester favourites. There’s not a great deal between the two on paper – if the Cherry and Whites boast an advantage in the half-backs and front row, Irish look stronger in the outside backs and back-row.

Perhaps crucially, plenty of games these days, especially around this time of year, are decided by the front row and half-backs. For that reason I’m backing the visitors to reverse their losing trend. Gloucester by 5.

London Welsh vs Northampton Saints

London Welsh played some better stuff last weekend against the Tigers, but in the second half as they began to tire their defence still looked horrendously porous. There’s not much point in beating around the bush any more – they are as good as relegated already. It would take a minor miracle for them to turn it around from here. Their opponents this weekend are a Saints side who have their tails up after an impressive away win over Saracens.

There’s not a great deal more to say about this game. Saints should romp to victory. Northampton by 40.

Newcastle Falcons vs Sale Sharks

Unlikely as it sounds, this is a game between two of the form sides in the league. Both have won three of their last four games, and both have included eye-catching wins that not many would have predicted. Kingston Park is becoming a difficult place for away sides to win again, and despite doing the business last season, Sale had not won there previously since 2008. The Sale backline looks the more potent, with Cusiter and Cipriani providing as dangerous a running threat from the half-bak positions as you will find anywhere in the Premiership. Newcastle have firepower too, with Sinoti Sinoti one of the more underrated finishers in the league and Alex Tuilagi doing what he does best on the other wing – namely barrelling over the top of people.

The Falcons’ win against Gloucester last weekend was a good one but they face a much sterner challenge this weekend in the form of a Sale side high on confidence and playing some very good rugby. It will be tight but I can see the Sharks pulling away late on and continuing their good form. Sale by 9.

How do you see the weekend going?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images