Aviva Premiership Round 19: 5 things we learned

1. The wheels are coming off

Ok, so it might be a bit hyperbolic to suggest that the wheels have truly come off Northampton Saints’ season as they still hold a six point lead at the top of the table, but after their hammering in France last weekend the last thing they needed now was the insipid showing they put in. Morale took a serious hit in that game against Clermont, and a win away at fellow play-off contenders Exeter would have shown everyone it hadn’t affected them. In the end, though, they needed a late consolation try to add a sheen of respectability to the scoreline, on a day nothing went right for the men in lime green. Their afternoon was personified by Stephen Myler – normally so unflustered, he missed two kicks at goal, kicked two restarts out on the full and received a yellow card. Next up they have Saracens, the form side in the league and a team who can now have genuine ambitions of knocking the Saints off top spot. Lose next round, and panic will well and truly set in, if not amongst the players then definitely amongst the fans.

2. Lacking the bite of old

Things are just as bleak in the other corner of the East Midlands. Much has been made of Leicester’s ability to scrap out wins despite not playing well, which they truly haven’t all season. As has been repeated umpteen times in recent weeks, they have scored more tries than only London Welsh – and even that record is now in danger, with the Welsh exiles just one five-pointer away from joining them on 26. Against Saracens they were their own worst enemies at times, particularly the hooker Tom Youngs whose petulant yellow card belied all of his experience. They conceded three tries in that ten minute period and after that their utterly toothless attack never even threatened to get them back into the game. They have injury issues, sure, but they still possess players that are good enough to break down defences. Quite why they aren’t doing so is unclear, but what is not in doubt it that Aaron Mauger cannot arrive soon enough. If there was ever a team that needed a bit of Kiwi stardust, it is this Leicester Tigers outfit.

3. Timing your run

Saracens are the new Leicester Tigers. They beat them on Saturday and they are timing their run of form to absolute perfection, something the Tigers have been masters at for years. They have Owen Farrell to return and yet in the likes of Charlie Hodgson, Alex Goode and Brad Barritt they have on-field generals and play-makers that have led the side to within six points of top spot. Chris Ashton is fizzing down the flanks, looking once again like the player that caught everyone’s attention during his breakthrough years. Their away game at Northampton looks eminently more winnable now than it did two weeks ago, the Fez-heads recording powerful wins in both Europe and the Premiership while the Saints were stumbling to two whimpering losses.

4. Qualification headache

Harlequins’ battling win over Gloucester dealt the Cherry and Whites a serious blow in the hunt for seventh place and the potential Champions Cup play-off space that goes with it. Sale’s loss at London Irish was further good news for Quins, who now sit just five points behind them in eighth. But while Gloucester are now all but out of the race for seventh, they could still have the last laugh. Premiership administrators have agreed that should an English side win the European Rugby Challenge Cup, then they will assume England’s spot in the end of season play-off tournament to decide the final Champions Cup place. It is not a decision that has been mirrored by Top 14 and PRO12 administrators, who will send the teams finishing in the requisite positions in their leagues regardless of Challenge Cup results (no French teams remain in the competition anyway). It means that, even after losing to Quins this weekend, if Gloucester win the Challenge Cup they will scupper their chances of playing in next season’s Champions Cup.

5. Fifth time lucky

Exeter are bidding to make the play-offs for the first time, in their fifth season in the Premiership. Since winning promotion in 2010, and being heavy favourites to yoyo straight back down, they have managed to finish eighth, fifth, sixth and eighth, but they look stronger than ever now. Led by the perennially brilliant but underrated Dave Ewers, they hammered Northampton at the weekend, to the extent that the champions never really threatened to win the game. They have a tough run in but look to have more than enough quality to deal with it, and if they do so they will not be an attractive proposition for anyone in the semi-finals. The Chiefs have made many friends in the Premiership since surviving against the odds four seasons ago, and while some of their home grown talent is beginning to get recognised on the biggest stage (and some, like Ewers and Slade, will surely follow suit soon) they are still a club built on community rather than famous names. Few would begrudge them a spot in the play-offs.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images