It would not have taken the most astute powers of prediction to foresee these two being the protagonists for the first ever European Rugby Champions Cup final. Clermont and Toulon have consistently been amongst the top European teams for the past few years – but only one of them has the silverware to show for it.
Toulon are chasing an unprecedented third European title in a row. Two years ago they beat Clermont in the final in a game that showed, at the business end of the season, pragmatism trumps ambition. They were outscored two tries to one but through the boot of Jonny Wilkinson and their gnarled forward pack, they ground out a win.
Clermont have developed a tag as perennial chokers and it is completely deserved. Too often have they looked like the team to beat for the entirety of the season, only to crumble when it matters most. That they only have one piece of silverware to their name in their long history – 2011’s Bouclier de Brennus – is testament to that.
Eleven of the Toulon squad that tasted victory that day in 2013 take to the field this weekend; the same number of Les Jaunards from that occasion are out for revenge.
The 2014/2015 Toulon vintage has come in for some criticism. They do not have the same swagger of old and are not winning games nearly as imperiously as in the past – as their semi-final win in extra time over a distinctly average Leinster outfit proves. That said, they have won eight European knockout games in a row and whatever criticisms you level at them, they know how to get it done at this stage of the season.
Clermont are almost the opposite. They are a glorious team to watch when in full flow, culminating in that stunning win over Northampton in the quarter-finals. It is between the ears where the questions remain. Do they have what it takes mentally to banish all their demons of the past few years and finally win the biggest prize?
All eyes on
Clermont’s struggles with composure at the end of the season have been personified by Brock James. The Australian fly-half is one of the best play-makers around, his variation and accuracy of both passing and kicking allowing those immensely talented runners around him to thrive with gloriously devastating effects. But when the heat has been on, he has faded – think the capitulation to Saracens last year at Twickenham. To his credit, he has slipped back into the 10 shirt in Camille Lopez’s absence well at the end of this season, and showed previously unseen composure in the semi-final against Saracens this to orchestrate a hard-fought, vengeful win. That kind of unerring belief and accuracy must continue to shine through this weekend if Clermont are to avenge another of their most painful losses.
You might be sick to death of reading about him, but it would be typical of Steffon Armitage to put in an eye-catching performance for the club that stops him being picked for England at Twickenham, the home of English rugby. The irony would not be lost on anyone. As Toulon bid to become the first side to win three titles in a row, so their marauding flanker and talisman bids to become the first man to win two individual gongs in a row. His tenacity, body position and raw power at the breakdown make him more difficult to move than a limpet, while he combines both pace and brute force in his carrying to make him incredibly tricky to bring down. The stage is set for the Steffon show.
Head to head: Nick Abendanon vs Leigh Halfpenny
Abendanon has been one of the stars of Clermont’s campaign, and seems to have really found a home in the Massif Central, bedding right in with his new side’s adventurous approach to rugby. He has been long considered one of the best counter-attacking fullbacks around, and so Matt Giteau et al will have to ensure their kicking from hand is pinpoint accurate to ensure he doesn’t have too many opportunities. Halfpenny’s importance to Toulon is in a different vein. Their victories down the years have been based on the rock solid foundations of Jonny Wilkinson’s boot – in Halfpenny they have a man every bit as reliable when it comes to kicking at the posts. Never daunted by the big occasion, Clermont know they cannot afford to give away penalties in their own half because the deadeye Welshman will make them pay.
Prediction
Games between these two are typically very tight – the biggest margin between them in the last three years has been eight points, on Clermont’s visit to the Felix Mayol earlier this season. Both teams will have to make do without the majority of their hugely passionate, vocal support at Twickenham, with large swathes of the crowd set to be neutral. And the absence of home advantage makes predicting any game involving French sides difficult. Toulon are the definition of ruthless when it comes to this stage of the competition, as their record proves, but there is just a sense that this might be Clermont’s year. The brilliance with which they have been playing, and the way the likes of Nakaitaci, Davies and Abendanon have stepped into the shoes of the older campaigners that have left – coupled with Toulon looking slightly out of sorts – makes them marginal favourites in my eyes. Clermont by 3.
Click here to see the full team line-ups.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
One reply on “Clermont vs Toulon: Champions Cup Final Prediction”
Brock James’ injury was a massive blow, are clermont anywhere near as good away from home?