Edinburgh and Gloucester descend on the Twickenham Stoop this weekend intent on making history. Edinburgh are the first Scottish side ever to make a European Cup final, and will hope to follow that milestone up with a far more significant one: their country’s first piece of club silverware.
Gloucester have a potentially more important target in their sites: Champions Cup qualification. Their season has not gone to plan in domestic terms, but in the Challenge Cup they have been imperious, sweeping all before them to remain unbeaten. If they finish that way, they will enter the play-off competition for next season’s elite tournament, at the expense of whichever poor Premiership side has grafted all season to finish seventh.
Edinburgh do not have the same carrot, the PRO12 administrators deciding to prioritise league position over Challenge Cup success. The Scottish side are still firmly in the hunt for qualification through their league, and will need to be wary that such matters do not distract them.
Both sides have had immensely topsy turvy seasons. Gloucester have not strung together three wins in a row all season, which will worry any of their fans that love stats – they’ve won their last two games… They have the second worst defensive record in the league, behind only the perennially hopeless London Welsh.
Edinburgh have had a real post-Christmas resurgence, that has seen them surge up the PRO12 table after a sluggish start. They have three wins in their last four league games so bring some good form into this one – but one worry will be their away record, which has seen them win just twice away from Murrayfield (Italian opposition aside).
All eyes on
Edinburgh’s South African born, soon-to-be-Scottish-qualified tighthead WP Nel has shone since moving to the capital, and has chewed up and spat out the best the PRO12 has to offer on more than one occasion this season. He will fancy his chances against a Gloucester unit that is far from the most fearsome set piece outfit around.
The career of Matt Kvesic has stalled somewhat. His move to Gloucester was supposed to propel him into the England reckoning after bursting onto the scene at Worcester, but playing behind a front five that has gone backwards more often than forwards has made his life immeasurably tough. He is a true fetcher and a proper breakdown nause, and will look to win, disrupt and slow down as much Edinburgh ball as possible this weekend.
Head to head: Greig Laidlaw vs Sam Hidalgo-Clyne
The current and future Scotland scrum-halves face off against each other at the Stoop, and coincidentally they are the two top scorers in the tournament so far. Laidlaw has always come in for some criticism for his running game, or lack thereof, but there are few cannier operators that wear the number nine jersey and his game management, as well as dead eye goalkicking, will crucial. Hidalgo-Clyne is the young pretender, but a strong performance here would certainly give credence to those that believe he should be starting in the national jersey ahead of Laidlaw. He is just as lethal with the boot but offers more of a sniping threat the Gloucesterman – an advantage he will surely look to capitalise on.
Prediction
The two sides have the best defensive records in the competition this season, and given it’s a final there’s a good chance we’re not in for a thriller. Both sides will prioritise winning over playing attractive rugby, as is always the case in knockout rugby but especially with everything on the line in this one. Gloucester will be more familiar with the surroundings but do not have happy memories at the Stoop, having not won there for over eight years. With the carrot of a place in the Champions Cup play-offs on the line, they should have more luck at this venue against Edinburgh than they usually do against Quins. Gloucester by 5.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
5 replies on “Edinburgh vs Gloucester: Challenge Cup Final Prediction”
Did you just copy and paste the comments RE Kvesic from last season or something? Gloucester’s tight 5 has done anything but go backwards this season, and Kvesic’s call up to the England squad has been roundly touted.
To be fair, I was discussing his career since moving to Gloucester as a whole… last season was terrible, this season has certainly been better but they’re still a long way from the best packs in the league. As for his call-up to the England squad – that’s nothing new is it? He’s been there plenty of times before, and I’m sure he would have wanted to be commanding a regular starting spot by now.
Hopefully the Gloucester pack will keep improving, as I’m a huge fan of Kvesic.
Whilst Gloucester’s front 5 have got better last season, it still seems to be one of the worst in the league as far as I can tell.
Probably outside of Welsh, Irish and Quins I’d say all other teams have a better front 5. That hardly provides Kvesic with the opportunity to prove he should be in the England number 7 shirt on a regular basis.
I can see Edinburgh winning this, but not by a lot. On their last outing the Edinburgh pack brutalised their opponents, scoring 3 tries through mauls and had two opposition props sin-binned for scrum infringements. It’ll be a game won by penalties, I wouldn’t be surprised if it went try-less.
A Clermont fd supporter requests help from Edinburgh supporters, my second favourite city and team. Please Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbDPA0Pubbc and forward.