European Rugby Champions Cup 2014/2015: Quarter-Final Predictions

Leinster Rugby vs Bath Rugby

Bath’s astonishing run to the quarter finals was something they can be rightly proud of, but they’re not about to receive any award and if they crash out now, very few will remember it. Their victory over Toulouse away from home proves that they have the minerals to go toe to toe with European aristocracy, a category into which Leinster slot seamlessly. In a similar vein to Toulouse, the Irishmen are not hitting the heights this season that they are used to. Bath will fancy their chances, and although they scrapped a win over London Welsh last week they can welcome back their England guns which should bring them a more fluid game.

Leinster’s breathtaking come-back against Glasgow was somewhat sullied by the concession of a late try that left them with just a draw – not the ideal preparation at home before the Bath game. They, too, will welcome back some big international names however, and the likes of Jamie Heaslip and Rob Kearney will provide a welcome injection of experience in the latter stages of European competition.

It has the potential to be one of the tighter games this weekend. Bath are an improvement on where they were last season, and possess some of the standout Six Nations performers. Leinster are struggling this year, but they have so much experience of this stage of the competition, and they are at home. That, just about, swings it in their favour. Leinster by 2.

Clermont Auvergne vs Northampton Saints

Clermont have had a typically imperious season playing in front of their own fans, although they have lost once, to Montpellier back in round two of the Top 14. Other than that they are unbeaten at fortress Marcel Michelin, and breezed through what should have been a much more difficult Champions Cup pool, a nose-to-the-grindstone win away at Munster the particular highlight. They are, however, without key half-back pairing Morgan Parra and Camille Lopez, both of whom sustained injuries in the Six Nations. Brock James will take the fly-half and goal-kicking reigns, duel duties that have seen him crumble in big games in the past. No doubt Courtney Lawes will be on hand to welcome him to the game early on.

Northampton’s European campaign so far has been bookended by chastening losses to a French side, their poolmates Racing Métro doing the double over them. It doesn’t bode well for them coming into this game, and the well-publicised news that lethal winger George North has been ruled out won’t help either. That said, the way likely replacement Ahsee Tuala finished his two tries last weekend will be some comfort.

Clermont will always start as favourites at home but the withdrawal of Parra and Lopez does even the playing field somewhat. They have powered their way through the tournament thus far, and in front of their own fanatical support they should become the second French side to heap misery on Northampton this year. Clermont by 5.

Racing Métro vs Saracens

Racing Métro have had a storming European season, culminating in their hammering of Northampton at home in the final round – one of the more eyebrow-raising results from the group stages. They’ve only lost once at home this season, and have even managed to pull a few away wins out of the bag recently – relatively unheard of across the channel. With Johnny Sexton at the helm they are primed for a charge into the latter stages of this tournament for the first time, and have enough talent that they can deem someone of Jamie Roberts’ obvious talents not needed.

Saracens are playing some fantastic rugby at the moment. They trounced Harlequins last weekend while scoring some scintillating tries, and before that inflicted Wasps’ first loss at their new Coventry home. That said, the two tough away challenges they faced in the pool stages – away to Clermont and Munster – they failed miserably at, failing to get within even 10 points of the opposition.

Racing Métro are certainly fallible – Northampton came within a misjudged kick of winning in Paris earlier this season – and Saracens do seem to be in a purple patch in terms of form. There will be an away win at some stage this weekend, and it could well come from Paris. Saracens by 3.

Toulon vs Wasps

Wasps fans would have been thrilled to see Toulon lose to Toulouse last weekend, especially as, at a glance, it appeared to be at the Felix Mayol. Sadly it was an exhibition game they had taken to Marseille, but nonetheless it is a game the Galacticos would have been disappointed to lose. They will be boosted by the presence of Matt Giteau, although he is expected to start on the bench, and having let Nicolas Sanchez go, their options at fly-half are Juan Martin Hernandez and Freddie Michalak – neither of whom are renowned for their game management. Even so, there is so much talent in this team – their latest sensation is Josua Tuisova, a Fijian winger who cannot stop scoring – that they will expect to win this game.

Wasps will arrive in Toulon with nothing to lose. They have had a fine season and to make it this far is testament to how far they have come since the dark days of a few short years ago. They have a set of backs that can produce some outrageously good tries, with Elliot Daly and Christian Wade in particular in fine form. The issue for them will come in the front five, where they do not possess the quality to really go up against the likes of Bakkies Botha and Carl Heyman and come away with a positive outcome.

Wasps will give it their all, and you can expect them to be in touch around the 60 minute mark. After that the raucous support and the relentless power of Toulon, that will be bolstered by whichever famous faces come off the bench, will be too much. Toulon by 10.

How do you see the weekend going? Here are our predictions form TRB HQ:

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images