European Rugby Champions Cup 2014/2015: Round 2 Predictions

Pool 1

Munster and Saracens kick-off round two on Friday night and what a game we have in store at Thomond Park. Both sides won in round one but Munster very nearly shot themselves in the foot with a loss at Sale, while Sarries are in the driving seat in the pool after their bonus point win over Clermont. The individual match-ups in the pack (CJ Stander v Billy Vunipola, Paul O’Connell v Jim Hamilton, Peter O’Mahony v Kelly Brown) are mouth-watering, and it’s here that the game will be won. Munster have blown hot and cold this year, and Thomond isn’t the fortress it used to be. They’ll be up for it, but Saracens’ form has been relentless.

Just a quick mention for the other game in the pool, because it’s impossible to see it going any other way than a comfortable home win. The Marcel Michelin may have been breached on a couple of occasions in the past year, but it’s difficult to see Sale adding themselves to the list of its conquerors.

Munster vs Saracens: Saracens by 3
Clermont Auvergne vs Sale Sharks: Clermont by 25

Pool 2

Leinster travel to Castres, a place where they have a decent record. They won here last year, 29-22 in what was a brilliant game of rugby. They are injury-depleted – especially in the front-row – but can still name an immensely strong line-up. Castres, like most French sides, are a different beast at home compared with away, but even so have slipped up a few times at the Pierre-Antoine this season. There’s no Rory Kockott in their team, which is a huge blow, and makes Leinster just about favourites.

The other game is an all-English affair between London rivals (for now) Wasps and Harlequins. Wasps have been playing the better rugby this season, and look more like a team that could trouble the knockout stages than Quins, despite the latter winning last weekend. Quins have beaten Wasps already this season, but that game was at the Stoop, and at Adams Park, Wasps should get their revenge. Expect Christian Wade to be out to prove a point.

Castres vs Leinster: Leinster by 7
Wasps vs Harlequins: Wasps by 5

Pool 3

Ulster against Toulon looks like the standout game of the weekend, which is saying something given the quality of matches across the board. Ulster’s losing bonus point at Welford Road last weekend saw them play some scintillating rugby, but the fact they allowed Leicester to build such a lead is worrying. Give Toulon that sort of head start and they will punish you. That said, their failure to get a bonus point at home to the Scarlets speaks of a team who don’t quite look that comfortable at the moment. Toulon lost their first game on the road last year in Europe, and it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise if the same happened again this year.

The Tigers’ season seems to be heading back towards the right track, after their meltdown in the Premiership. Nonetheless, they will be dismayed at allowing Ulster back into the game last weekend and at not securing a winning bonus point themselves. Anthony Allen, midfield linchpin and arguably the most important man at the club, comes back into the side with Owen Williams moved to fly-half to pull the strings against his old club. The Scarlets were impressive last weekend, but they do look a bit flaky at times, especially in the pack – not something you can afford to be against the Tigers.

Ulster vs Toulon: Ulster by 2
Scarlets vs Leicester Tigers: Leicester by 8

Pool 4

Bath have a mini-injury crisis going on. Their starting line-up against Toulouse features four (FOUR!) locks, including one from the academy. Two of them, Dom Day and Charlie Ewels, start in the back row with fellow youngster Dave Sisi. Guy Mercer is, bafflingly, on the bench – he must be carrying a serious knock for that to be the case. Toulouse, by contrast, have Dusautoir, Harinordoquy and Picamoles starting, with Nyanga and Maka to come off the bench. On paper, there is no contest, and yet the French side’s form away in Europe has been historically so bad that Bath will still be confident. Flip a coin.

Glasgow face a real litmus test of their European credentials, with a trip to Montpellier. Leicester and Ulster both won on French soil against them last year, but they look a more composed team this year and seem to be taking Europe more seriously. A losing bonus point at Toulouse means they will still be confident of making a charge towards the knockout stages. The Warriors are not a team to be written off, but the Montpellier line-up oozes class and at home they should have too much for the travelling Scotsmen.

Bath vs Toulouse: Toulouse by 2
Montpellier vs Glasgow: Montpellier by 9

Pool 5

Northampton welcome the Ospreys to Franklin’s Gardens hoping to put last weekend’s nightmare in Paris behind them. To come away with no bonus point was a real blow and they’ll be looking to counterbalance that with a five point win here. The Ospreys, however, are defying everyone’s pre-season expectations and will not just roll over. Their comfortable win against Treviso tells us very little about how they will go in Europe, but their ability to get a bonus point, or even win, here will do so. Despite their electric start, a win at the Gardens will likely be beyond them.

The other game in this pool involves Treviso which means, sadly, it’s a foregone conclusion. They’ve looked a shadow of the side that was starting to become seriously competitive at home in Europe, and if Racing don’t get a bonus point at the Stadio Monigo it will be a shock.

Northampton Saints vs Ospreys: Northampton by 12
Treviso vs Racing Métro: Racing by 20

What are your predictions for the weekend?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images