European Rugby Champions Cup 2014/2015: Round 6 Predictions

Hugh Foyle previews each pool ahead of the final round of Champions Cup matches this weekend, sharing his SuperBru predictions for each fixture.

POOL 1

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Demoralised from a demolishing by Saracens, Munster is at an all time low. A resounding victory for the home side makes us wonder how people thought Munster stood any chance before this game. Sale fought gallantly for 70 minutes in their clash with Clermont before the away side pulled two scores ahead before the final whistle. Much heart can be taken from Sale’s showing this year at home. Only narrowly losing to three topsides. Shows how far the Sharks have come this year.

We look at the dead rubber first. Munster welcome Sale to the one time fortress of Thomond Park praying they can put on a show for their magnificent support. A special mention must go to the traveling “Red Army”, 3000 strong, who helped create a homely feel for Munster in the Allianz Park. Sale will make the trip to Limerick with confidence from a solid showing in the last five rounds. They will battle hard but I believe Munster, even without Conor Murray and the likely absentee CJ Stander, will have too much for the Sharks.

In a winner takes-all clash at the Stade Marcel-Michelin, the first of many in Round 6, Clermont welcome Saracens. Clermont did what they had to do against Sale and have looked good so far this year but not yet their brilliant selves. The news that influential captain Aurélien Rougerie was out of this one would have been hard to take but there’s enough class in this team to overcome a competent Saracens team without him. Munster made Saracens look far better than their form this season suggests. A solid squad well drilled to execute Mark McCall’s game plan; Sarries aren’t quite the team that came second to Toulon in last years Heineken Cup. They will cause Clermont problems and their ruthless finishers Ashton, Strettle and Wyles will capitalise on any sniff they get. Clermont are a different beast at home however and will overpower the visitors and see this one out by two scores.

Munster vs Sale Sharks: Munster by 9
Clermont Auvergne vs Saracens: Clermont by 12

POOL 2

This pool just got even more interesting. Who expected that result from Wasps? Yes, Harlequins are an average side who were made to look good by Leinster, but I did not see such a comfortable away win for the Coventry based outfit. It means another winner takes all clash in Round 6. The Ricoh Arena this time plays host to one hell of a dual between Wasps and Leinster. Castres were an irrelevance in this pool after Round 4 (though some might argue even sooner than that) and proved it with a dismal showing in Dublin. It is hard to gauge too much of a conclusion from Leinster’s performance. They were very good in parts, scoring well-worked tries and operating efficiently at set piece time, but they were playing against a team not at the races.

Wasp’s third game in the Ricoh Arena is a real humdinger. They have topped forty points in their first two games since moving from Adams Park. Something tells me they won’t hit anywhere near that mark this time out. Both teams will be flying high on confidence before they meet on Saturday. Leinster had a strong showing at scrum time in the RDS last week but Michael Bent and substitute loose head Jamie Hagan can be got at. Wasps possess in Ashley Johnson and Nathan Hughes what Leinster are missing through injuries to Cian Healy and Sean O’Brien and that is two monstrous ball carries. Leinster has more flair and excitement in the backs, although Joe Simpson, Christian Ward and Tom Varndell offer enough electricity between them to cause them problems. Expect this one to go the distance and keep you on the edge of your seat. Based on Leinster’s quality and a more accomplished eight, nine, ten axis I see the men from Ireland crossing the line, just!

Harlequins’ visit Castres deflated after sitting a top of the pool leading into Round 5 but now staring down the barrel of elimination after Round 6. Mathematical chances of progression cloud realism. Better-placed sides in their respective pools have more points and a likelier chance of moving into the quarterfinals. That said Harlequins cannot take they foot off the gas and must travel to France with a bonus point win their main objective. Castres are distracted with a relegation dogfight in the Top 14 and will be hoping for this game to come and go quickly. Although restoring some pride in front of their home fans would help build some much needed confidence. I still expect ‘Quins to show up and dominate but fall short of the required four-try bonus point.

Wasps vs Leinster: Leinster by smidgen
Castres vs Harlequins: Quins by 12

POOL 3

Toulon is after spanking Ulster up and down the Stade Félix Mayol pitch. The Ulster men fought courageously for much of the first half, but the reigning champions turned on the style in the second half and showed why they are the team to beat in this competition. All the talk before the Leicester game was of a bonus point, from both coaches. Richard Cockerill was the only one smiling at the end of the game though as the Tigers gave themselves a real chance of advancing.

Will the Scarlets manage to stop Toulon at the Parc y Scarlets? No chance! Toulon need all five points to guarantee a home quarter final and I am certain they will do just that. No disrespect to Scarlets but they have nothing but pride to play for in this one and with the French outfit looking so good last weekend I expect them to leave Wales with all five points in the bag.
Joe Schmidt will not have been a happy man watching Ulster last weekend. Not only did he see one of his provincial sides getting trounced, he also had to witness two eligible players for his Irish Six Nations squad sustain injuries that will rule them out of selection. Paddy Jackson and Stuart Olding will not feature in green any time soon. What of the game itself? Leicester have given themselves a great chance. They travel to the Kingspan Stadium with a real opportunity to get out of the group, but only if they secure a bonus point win. A tough task given Ulster will not want to bow out of Europe without a parting shot. I expect Ulster to stick in to them but to fall short. Leicester will be unable to secure the four-try win they require.

Scarlets vs Toulon: Toulon by 21
Ulster vs Leicester Tigers: Tiger by 9

POOL 4

The only words to describe it are, Wow! Bath played some of the most beautiful running rugby we have seen this year. How Lancaster could justify not starting with Ford, Eastmond and Joseph at ten, twelve, thirteen would be beyond me. They took Toulouse to school for large parts of the game and got a bonus point win. Don’t be fooled by that Toulouse side though. Indifferent in Europe and only seventh in the Top 14, they are not the team of old. Three try Glasgow went close but no cigar in their game. They will be kicking themselves for not securing all five from a game they controlled well. Montepellier, like their French pals Castres, have offered little this year.

The winner of this pool could be one of three teams. Toulouse stand the best chance of moving into the quarter final as pool winners as they face whipping boys Montpellier at the Altrad Stadium. Five points here will seal the group for Toulouse and they wont need to worry themselves with the events in Bath. Lying seventh in the Top 14, Guy Nóves will know his most likely chance of silverware this year is in the Champions Cup. Montpellier lie only two points behind their opponents on the domestic front and under Jake White’s tutelage they are more competitive. I don’t expect them to have enough to overcome a determined Toulouse side that I think will win with the necessary bonus point.

The Recreation Ground will host arguably one of the ties of the Round. Bath is riding the crest of a wave after their win in France that looks like washing right over the visiting Glaswegians. The Scottish side is enjoying life under Gregor Townsend and will feel they have as much a chance as Bath of winning this one. How though do you bet against this Bath side doing the business and sneaking through? It seemed a very unlikely occurrence after Round 2 when Bath were beaten in their opening two games, one of which, a 37-10 drubbing by Glasgow at the Scotstoun Stadium. An on-song Bath team is a thing of beauty and with Joseph and co. in the backline; I think it’ll be Bath’s day. Whether their win will be enough to see them through, only time will tell.

Montpellier vs Toulouse: Toulouse by 19
Bath vs Glasgow: Bath by 8

POOL 5

The tales of two teams, Racing Métro and Northampton, have dominated Pool 5. Ospreys couldn’t handle the sheer power both these sides brought to the group. The less said about Treviso’s involvement the better. Racing rolled over Treviso last weekend while Northampton did enough against a spirited Ospreys team to win at the Liberty Stadium. What the last five rounds have being building to is a mouth-watering game in prospect this Saturday between the top two.

Let us get the other game out of the way first before we discuss the big one. Ospreys travel to Italy to take on minnows, Treviso. Treviso’s performances in this year’s competition must call into question whether they deserve a place at all. Such has been their mediocrity that for them to occupy a spot in place of a Connacht or Gloucester is astounding. Ospreys are a very good side and sit on top of the Pro 12 but they never stood a chance against Northampton and a resurgent Racing Métro. They will score at least four tries in Italy and try to take some positives from this year in Europe.

Now on to the big one, Northampton are still reeling from their Round 1 lose to Racing. Sitting top of the Aviva Premiership this English Champions side love playing in front of the Franklin’s Gardens faithful. The loss of Ben Foden for the rest of the season is a big blow. Foden is a main stay in this Saints side and will be a tough man to replace. However, with George North and the Pisi brother, Ken and George, they have enough firepower out wide. Racing have had to deal without their commander-in-chief Jonny Sexton for a long time now. Benjamin Dambielle has filled his boots well in a star studded Paris outfit. This one is going to be a titanic arm wrestle, which is exactly what the Northampton pack love. I am expecting George North to have a big game and score the try to see the Saints top the group and achieve a home quarterfinal.

Benetton Treviso vs Ospreys: Ospreys by 25
Northampton Saints vs Racing Métro: Saints by 4

By Hugh Foyle
Follow Hugh on Twitter: @hfoyle

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images