European Rugby Champions Cup 2014/2015: Semi-Final Predictions

Clermont Auvergne vs Saracens
Stade Geoffrey Guichard, St-Etienne

The Geoffrey Guichard becomes the 24th stadium to host a European knockout game, and a classic it could be. Revenge is on the brain for Clermont, as they look to avenge their 46-6 humbling by Saracens at this exact stage last season. That game was played at Twickenham; that this one is in France, albeit far from their colourful, bouncing Marcel Michelin home, will be a mini-boost for Les Jaunards. Their sublime win over Northampton in the quarter-final, in which the likes of Fofana, Abendanon and Nakaitaci showed just how potent a backline this team possesses, was somewhat undone by their baffling home loss to US Oyonnax in the Top 14 last weekend. Still, that was a much changed side, and the most recent on-pitch memories for most of the men wearing the shirt this weekend will be cutting loose against the Saints. Play with the accuracy and intensity of that game again, and Saracens don’t stand a chance.

Sarries’ job is to ensure they aren’t allowed to do that. They will have to be tactically astute, especially with their kicking, in order that Clermont’s electric back three don’t get a chance to counter. They must find a way to keep it tight, and if they can build a lead then the wobbles that affect Clermont at this time every year will surely start to kick in again. If it becomes an arm wrestle, a game in which a single mistake rather than a single bit of genius will win it, then Saracens will become favourites. Last year they hounded Clermont’s playmakers, to the point where they completely crumbled, and once ahead they never looked back – to their credit, running in some excellent tries of their own. Like Clermont, they have made the business end of European competition without winning the trophy for the last few years. They have plenty of hurt to avenge, too.

Key battle: Brock James vs Charlie Hodgson

With Owen Farrell likely to be on the bench and Camille Lopez injured, it is a case of the two second choice playmakers taking the reigns. James is perhaps the one player that has personified Clermont’s astounding ability to crumble under pressure in recent years; he is a supremely talented individual, but has lacked the bottle to make the right decisions at crucial times. Opposite him is a man every bit as inclined to attack, but the crucial part of Hodgson’s game this weekend will be his kicking. At the posts, his radar has wobbled in recent weeks; that cannot be allowed to happen if Saracens are to remain in the contest.

Prediction: We’re not going to see a repeat of last year’s brutal battering, by either side. The question is, can Clermont hold their nerve? They have all the talent to win this game, but belief is a quality that Saracens have in spades. It will be close, but a team with so much raw talent at its disposal surely has to make the final, doesn’t it? Clermont by 6.

Toulon vs Leinster
Stade Vélodrome, Marseille

On paper, this is an easier game to call. Leinster have been so far from the side that won three Heineken Cups between 2009-2012 that they are most likely not even going to finish in the top four of the PRO12 this season. That said, here they are again, in a European semi-final. You do not consistently get this far by accident. Their semi-final win over Bath was an ugly one – they ground out penalties in the first half and banged over a load of penalties, then hung on for dear life as Bath battled back into the game. Such tactics will not work this weekend, simply because they will not force the same number of penalties from the mighty Toulon pack. They will have to open things up a bit more, which might be a struggle given that they average the second lowest number of offloads per game in the competition (only Treviso average fewer).

And by happy coincidence (or perhaps not) the side that averages the most offloads per game is their opponent this weekend. It is impossible to pinpoint a weakness in this Toulon side – with no Matt Giteau or Leigh Halfpenny in the quarter-final, you fancied game management and goal-kicking might suffer with Freddie Michalak at 10. But the magic of Wilkinson’s shirt seemed to seep into Michalak as he smashed over all his kicks and generally ran the show in a manner that would have baffled anyone used to seeing him flake in a France shirt. This Toulon side oozes international class, but they have not hit their best form this year, in truth. They have an aging pack and Leinster will likely try to move it around, although Steffon Armitage’s ability to cover seemingly every single blade of grass will negate that somewhat.

Key battle: Steffon Armitage vs Sean O’Brien

Armitage and O’Brien are the definition of modern sevens – neither in the traditional ‘fetcher’ mould, but both equally adept at pilfering ball at ball at the breakdown, mainly due to superhuman levels of strength. O’Brien has taken his time to come back to form, but if Leinster are to pull off an unlikely win then they need him to be at his rampaging best, because you can be sure that Armitage will be. Once again the Englishman has been at the heart of Toulon’s charge, and is in the driving seat to be named European Player of the Year two years in a row. O’Brien simply must match him.

Prediction: Something just hasn’t quite clicked at Leinster this season. They have battled to some good victories, particularly in Europe, but too often they have looked insipid; void of ideas when it comes to breaking teams down. Working in their favour will be the heavy underdog tag – something great rivals Munster used to their advantage on this very stage last year, almost pulling off one of the great shock wins at the same venue. In truth, though, Toulon are the real deal and know how to win this sort of game. They should do so comfortably. Toulon by 12.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images