European Rugby Champions Cup 2015/2016: Round 6 Predictions

POOL 1

Ulster have a mathematical chance of qualifying for the knockout stages, but they know they will need the full five points from their home game with Oyonnax, as well as other results going their way. Ruan Pienaar is absent from their line-up, which is a blow, but the livewire Paul Marshall is an able deputy to partner the in-form Paddy Jackson at half-back. Oyonnax have named close to a full second team for this trip, their focus firmly settled on securing Top 14 safety. This could be a cricket score win for Ulster, who will know that every little could help.

The other game is a dead rubber and thus difficult to predict. Saracens are already guaranteed a home quarter-final spot, while Toulouse have been so woeful in Europe this season that they have been out for some time now. The English side rotate and rest some of their bigger names, but still have enough quality in their team to see off a disinterested Toulouse.

Ulster vs Oyonnax: Ulster by 52
Toulouse vs Saracens: Saracens by 6

POOL 2

Pool two is deliciously poised, with all teams technically still in with a chance of progressing. The Ospreys are in the nice position of having their fate in their own hands – a win at Exeter will see them qualify as pool winners no matter what. They could still qualify if they lose, but would need other results to go their way. Exeter, meanwhile, need to win with a bonus point, stop Ospreys from getting one, and hope Bordeaux beat Clermont but without getting a bonus point. Got all that? The Ospreys haven’t won a game away in Europe since 2009 – a stunning run of over six years without a win outside of Wales. Given what’s on the line, this may well be the year they break that horrific run.

Elsewhere there’s an all French affair as Clermont know they need a win over Bordeaux and to hope that the Ospreys lose if they are to qualify. Bordeaux managed a draw at the imposing Marcel Michelin back in September, but this weekend it should be a comfortable win for the home side.

Exeter Chiefs vs Ospreys: Ospreys by 2
Clermont Auvergne vs Bordeaux Begles: Clermont by 15

POOL 3

Northampton travel to Scarlets in need of a win that would likely see them qualify as one of two best runners up. They name young Harry Mallinder, son of boss Jim, in the centres after his try-scoring heroics against Glasgow last weekend kept their qualification hopes alive, consigning Luther Burrell to the bench. The Scarlets have rested some of their own first choice players, with the PRO12 firmly on their mind. They’ve yet to win in this year’s Champions Cup and, sadly, they may well end the tournament that way.

Racing are one of three unbeaten sides left in the competition and their stunning 64-14 victory over Scarlets last weekend sees them already qualified with a home quarter-final assured. It makes their trip to Glasgow a dead rubber; they have rested some players (no Dan Carter, for example) and against a Glasgow side in need of something to celebrate after last weekend’s crushing last minute defeat to Northampton, they may well come unstuck.

Scarlets vs Northampton Saints: Northampton by 9
Glasgow Warriors vs Racing 92: Glasgow by 3

POOL 4

Pool four is all sewn up for Leicester, whose impressive form sees them with a 100% winning record as we enter the final round. They face undoubtedly their biggest test this weekend, however, as they travel to Paris to take on Stade Français. The Frenchmen need a win to be in with a shot of qualifying as a best runner up, and will be a different beast to the side that meekly lost to Munster in Ireland last weekend. Manu Tuilagi shifts to the 13 shirt for the visitors, and as ever will be the centre of attention, while Tom Youngs skippers the side and will be raring to prove his point to Eddie Jones in a hostile environment. There is still plenty of motivation for Leicester, and we may well find that Stade’s focus has already returned to the Top 14.

Elsewhere Munster travel to Treviso looking to build on last weekend’s win over the Parisians. They know a loss against the hapless Italians would wipe out all that good work – it is unlikely to go down that way.

Stade Français vs Leicester Tigers: Leicester by 3
Treviso vs Munster: Munster by 12

POOL 5

As always, we save the best until last. Both Toulon and Wasps are in with a qualification chance, and indeed if they both win, will probably both go through. The French side, astonishingly, have a points difference of zero, despite winning four of their five games. That stat, along with the fact that they are yet to pick up a single winning bonus point, tells you everything about how scrappy they have been – last weekend’s last gasp win at home to a depleted Wasps side was indicative of that. They travel to a wounded Bath side who have themselves entirely underwhelmed, but despite all the stellar names in their line-up there has been very little to suggest that Toulon have what it takes to win at the Rec, even against this poor Bath side. The hosts know a win over the European champions would be huge for morale, and stranger things have certainly happened.

Wasps will be chasing a bonus point win against Leinster after their heartbreak in Toulon in round five. The English side deserved more than a losing bonus point from that game, but a five-pointer here would give them 20 points which would be enough to see them go through. Wasps have Joe Launchbury and captain James Haskell back in the side, while Nathan Hughes returns to the bench. Leinster are playing for little other than pride, which is unlikely to be enough against this fired up Wasps side.

Bath Rugby vs Toulon: Bath by 1
Wasps vs Leinster: Wasps by 18

How do you see the weekend going?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images