Guinness PRO12 2014/2015: Round 10 Predictions

With European action behind us and Christmas fast approaching, it can only mean one thing: PRO12 local derbies.

Cardiff Blues vs Llanelli Scarlets

Cardiff finally got back to winning ways last time out in the PRO12 with a bonus point win over Treviso. That win has been a long time coming for Blues fans, as it was their first since the opening round, back in September. They’ll take some comfort in the fact that this Scarlets team have yet to win on the road. They come into this match on the back of a surprise upset with their victory against Ulster in the new look Heineken Cup. They’ve also won on their last two trips to Cardiff Arms Park (last April’s loss to Cardiff was played in the Millennium Stadium, as part of ‘Judgment Day’), so this match could really go either way. Scarlets’ poor away form does make me think about backing the Blues, but the Blues have only managed wins against London Irish and some poor Italian sides. I think Scarlets will get their maiden win on the road win this weekend.

Prediction: Scarlets by 3

Edinburgh vs Benetton Treviso

Next up we have Edinburgh hosting Treviso. Edinburgh had some modest success in the European Challenge Cup winning home and away to London Welsh and remaining one of only two sides with 100% records thus far in the competition. Their home form this season has been better too, with only one loss (and a draw) thus far. Treviso’s season has been, with the exception of that well earned draw they garnered against Leinster, absolutely abysmal. Not a single victory in any competition stretching back to April and culminating with a humiliating mauling by Northampton Saints 67-0. The hurt they must be feeling will have to continue however, as I don’t see them getting a win here this weekend either.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 18

Leinster vs Connacht

An interesting match up here. Who would’ve foreseen Leinster being fifth in the league table at this stage of the season and more importantly having Connacht breathing down their necks just one point behind them? In fact Connacht have won more matches (and lost fewer) than Leinster, not to mention that they are chasing a first ever victory at the RDS and a first ever season double over their provincial rivals. They’ll take confidence from their recent European form with wins home and away to Bayonne, but this outing will be another level entirely for them, especially with Leinster coming off tough matches against Quins. Leinster haven’t lost at the RDS in the PRO12 in 18 matches and haven’t lost to Connacht in Dublin since 2002. There’s no doubt that a win for Connacht here would be an awesome achievement and testament to the improvements this side is making, but I think it’s still a bridge too far at this stage.

Prediction: Leinster by 12

Glasgow vs Munster

Both Glasgow and Munster have had a difficult few weeks with each side losing both their respective European matches, leaving their hopes for qualification hanging by very thin threads. Domestically they’ve both fared much better, each having lost only two games this season. Munster are currently in the ascendency with a five game winning streak to their credit and sit atop the league table. They’ll not take this match lightly though as it’s the replay of last years epic semi-final in which they came off second best. History favours the Warriors, who’ve won three of their last four encounters with the men in red. Given how slim either side’s chances are of getting any European silverware this season, it’s safe to assume that both teams will be re-doubling their efforts to end top of the domestic table come May. This game really is a coin flip, current form favouring Munster (just about) and recent history and home advantage favouring Glasgow.

Prediction: Glasgow by 5

Ospreys vs Ulster

Again we have another top of the table clash. And just as with Glasgow and Munster, both Ospreys and Ulster’s European campaigns have been derailed. With so little separating the top four teams, every win is vital. Ospreys were top of the table and undefeated not so long ago, only to be stopped in their tracks by Ulster. In their defence the Autumn Test series was underway and they weren’t at full strength. They know that if they can prevent Ulster getting a season double over them, they’ve got a chance to jump back up into first place. What better revenge is there? Easier said than done, though, given the history between these sides – Ulster winning five of their last six encounters with this Welsh side. Still, they haven’t won in Wales since May of this year, and will be acutely aware of that stat going in, not to mention feeling the hurt from their loss to Scarlets last weekend. Again this game could go either way. I don’t have the teams named as I write this but home advantage has to count for something, right?

Prediction: Ospreys by 6

Newport Gwent Dragons vs Zebre

Not the greatest ending to the weekend’s rugby action, with a clash between two teams firmly in the bottom half of the table. Newport’s domestic season has been woeful so far with losses to everyone bar bottom of the ladder Treviso. They’ve had the better of the sides recent European action but it’s not like a victory over Bucharest is readily comparable to Zebre’s loss to Gloucester. Zebre’s home form has been marginally better than the Dragons, with wins over Ulster and Edinburgh, but on the road they’ve suffered. Here’s hoping that home advantage sees the Dragons through.

Prediction: Dragons by 3

As this will be my last set of predictions before Christmas, I’d just like to wish all of The Rugby Blog’s PRO12 followers a very ‘Merry Christmas’, ‘Nollaig Shona’, ‘Nollaig Chridheil’, ‘Nadolig Llawen’ and ‘Buon Natale’!

By John O’Brien (@tiptackler)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images