Guinness PRO12 2014/2015: Round 15 Predictions

With the Six Nations taking the first of its two scheduled breaks we turn our attention back to domestic affairs. As always during these international windows the tug-o-war between club and country means that the teams aren’t as cohesive as they should be. Some players get released back to their clubs, some don’t and it makes for interesting and somewhat unpredictable outcomes.

Benetton Treviso vs Cardiff Blues

First up we have two teams who haven’t won a match since Round 12. Treviso are coming into this game after a humiliating drubbing by Ulster (43-3) last weekend whereas the Blues’ loss to Munster was a marginally more respectable (33-16). It’s safe to say that neither side have lived up to the potential they’ve displayed in seasons past and will be desperate for a win, if only to try to lift themselves from the lower third of the table. Recent history and form favour the Blues, whereas Treviso have home advantage, some returning internationals and can draw strength from the fact that they beat table-topping Ospreys here in their Champions Cup clash back in January. I expect it to be a tight affair with the visitors sneaking the win.

Prediction: Blues by 2

Edinburgh vs Ulster

Under normal circumstances you’d have to favour Ulster but this Edinburgh side have improved markedly from their form in recent seasons. The men from the capital are even potentially challenging Connacht for the title of ‘most improved side’ this year. Not many people backed them to beat Ospreys last weekend which they did in style to maintain a home ground unbeaten streak of eight games, and Edinburgh have defeated three of the top four teams at least once so far this season. They also welcome back some of their top players released from the national side. Ulster meanwhile welcome back Irish international Iain Henderson as one of two changes to the to the side that trounced Treviso by 40 points last weekend. The Ulstermen won’t be taking this fixture for granted though, especially when you consider that they’ve only won one away game in their last eight outings. This match really could go either way – history favours the visitors but home advantage and current form favour Edinburgh, but only just.

Prediction: Edinburgh by 1

Leinster vs Zebre

Leinster’s shock defeat to the Dragons last weekend has taken them back out of the top four. It’s been an up and down season for Matt O’Connor’s side, but it’s not all doom and gloom as history shows that Leinster have not lost three in a row since 2012. If they are to get their season back on track yet again, then they couldn’t have asked for a better opponent than Zebre. The Italian side sit firmly at the bottom of the pile with two wins in fourteen matches this season. Given form, history and home advantage, should Leinster lose this, Matt O’Connor’s tenure at the club will likely come to a very abrupt end!

Prediction: Leinster by 25

Llanelli Scarlets vs Munster

Both these teams come into this game on the back of a win. Scarlets have had a great run of form at home, not having lost a PRO12 match at Parc y Scarlets in over a year. Munster now sit second in the table behind Glasgow and will be looking to hold on to a spot in the top four, wary of Ospreys and Ulster who are both breathing down their neck. With no teamsheets I’m forced to go on history. The last four clashes between these two went to the home side, and given Munster’s recent run of poor away form I expect this trend to continue.

Prediction: Scarlets by 7

Glasgow vs Ospreys

This has the potential to be the game of the weekend. The current table toppers against the side who held that spot for so long, with a radical change in the top four spots depending on who wins or loses. Again without teams I’m forced to go on form and history, both of which currently favour Glasgow. Although, with the current injury to lock Jonny Gray and Tim Swinson being called up to the Scotland squad, Glasgow will have two Edinburgh-based players on loan for this fixture. With home advantage they should triumph over the Welshmen, who have lost their last four away games in the PRO12 since round five, and you’d have to go back to 2009 for the last time Ospreys beat Glasgow at Scotstoun.

Prediction: Glasgow by 15

Newport Gwent Dragons vs Connacht

Last weekend coming into the last game I was cruising towards a 6/6 perfect weekend, with only one match left: Leinster vs the Dragons. Money in bag, right? Wrong. 21 games unbeaten at the RDS was brought to a crashing halt by none other than the Dragons. That was quite the upset, the question now is can the Welsh side make it two in a row over the Irish provinces? Recent history tells us that they’ve won just two of their last six home matches. Connacht’s away form since October has not been good but they have won twice in their last three trips here. The Dragons lost by five when they last faced Connacht, and I think they’ll reverse that outcome here and probably by a similar margin.

Prediction: Dragons by 5

By John O’Brien (@tiptackler)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images