The Pro12 returns this weekend, but without quite a number of Six Nations players. How will their absence affect the outcome of this week’s games?
Newport Gwent Dragons vs Leinster
The Dragons are not hugely affected by the Six Nation call ups, and they have the bonus of welcoming back winger Hallam Amos from the Welsh training squad. Leinster, however, have 16 players missing through international commitment or injury, and they have made 12 changes to the team that faced Wasps last weekend. The Dragons did the double over Leinster last season, but in their previous encounter this season, the Irishmen ran out 37-13 winners. With such a depleted Leinster squad, the outcome of the game is much more difficult to judge. The visitors though can still call on the likes of Ben Te’o and Garry Ringrose in the centre and Zane Kirchner and Fergus McFadden on the wing.
This extra bit of quality in the back division might just make the difference and help deliver their eighth Pro12 victory in a row. Leinster by 4.
Connacht vs Scarlets
These are perhaps the two surprise packages in the PRO12 this year. Much has been made of their early season success, and how the Rugby World Cup didn’t have the same impact on squad numbers as some of the usual ‘big hitters’. If this theory is true, then we should expect to see both teams taking advantage during the Six Nations as well. The reality, though, is that the Scarlets are contributing seven players to the Welsh squad now and they will have to field a much weakened team. They do however welcome back Liam Williams from the training camp in order to get some valuable game time having not played for the since May. For Connacht, Finlay Bealham, Nathan White, Ultan Dillane, Kieran Marmion and Robbie Henshaw continue to train with Ireland; whether any of them are made available to Pat Lam remains to be seen.
These two played each other only three weeks ago, with the Scarlets winning 21-19. Expect another close game, although on this occasion Connacht with home advantage will come out on top. Connacht by 4.
Zebre vs Munster
Zebre’s four game winning run in all tournaments came to an end with their Challenge Cup reversal at home to Gloucester. They won their back to back fixtures against Treviso over the holiday period and will be trying to win three PRO12 matches in succession for the first time. Munster’s only loss in the last four matches has been to Stade Français in the Champions Cup.
Players from Zebre make up half of Italy’s total training squad, whereas Munster only contribute seven to Ireland’s, and although some may be returned, Munster are well placed to take advantage of this disparity. We have seen a bit of return to form for Munster, and they can boast an unblemished record against the Italians having won the last nine fixtures against them! Munster by 8.
Cardiff Blues vs Edinburgh
Head Coach Danny Wilson has challenged his team to build on the momentum of recent months. The Blues will be without nine players lost to international duty when they face Edinburgh, but Wilson has urged his squad to maintain an impressive home record in the PRO12 this season. Edinburgh’s only victory in their last five encounters with the Blues was at Murrayfield in November 2014 whilst they have not been successful on Cardiff soil since September 2012. The normally strong Edinburgh pack are likely to be decimated without the services of some key front-rowers in Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford, WP Nel, Stuart McInally and Rory Sutherland.
The Blues have three home games and an away trip to Treviso over the next four weeks, so there is a real feeling that they can push on in the league. They have been in good try-scoring form lately, and it is this extra threat and the lack of Edinburgh forward power which should see them home. Cardiff Blues by 8.
Benetton Treviso vs Ulster
The dreadful losing streak shows little sign of abating for Treviso on Saturday as they welcome the ‘in form’ Ulster. Whilst Italian home defeats have not been quite as heavy, they have been no less painful for their long suffering fans: it has now been nearly 12 months since they last won a game! Ulster will doubtless have a number of changes as key players are committed to the Ireland squad, however they should remain too strong for their opponents in every facet of the game.
Unless we see an unexpected combination of Ulster self-imploding and a revitalised Treviso, this should be a very comfortable away win. Ulster by 12.
Ospreys vs Glasgow Warriors
The home side will want to recover quickly from their European disappointment at the hands of Exeter last weekend. Although they are missing eight players to the national side, the impact is more significantly felt in the Glasgow team who have lost 17! The Warriors four game losing run ended with their impressive victory over Racing 92 at Kilmarnock, and the defending champions have lost just once to the Ospreys in their last nine fixtures.
These sides sit just one point apart in seventh and eighth position. Both suffered at World Cup time, so they will need to be more resilient during the Six Nations if they intend on being involved in the play-offs come the end of the season. Based on there being less disruption to the Ospreys team, particularly in the backline, a home win is the more likely outcome. Ospreys by 6.
By Keith Mackenzie
Follow Keith on Twitter: @Keith_Mack7
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images