Newport Gwent Dragons vs Glasgow Warriors
Round 16 of the Pro12 starts early with this week with a Thursday evening game. Glasgow have won the last three encounters between the two teams and will probably start the game as marginal favourites. They managed to find some form and an all-important bonus point win last week at home to Munster. The Warriors include, perhaps surprisingly, Josh Strauss and Duncan Weir. The Dragons make four changes which include Phil Price and Matthew Screech returning to the forward pack.
Clearly Six Nations weekends have an impact and Glasgow feel it more than most, and when you add in Dragons home advantage, the tie becomes much more difficult to call. However, the visitor’s line-up still looks the stronger of the two. Glasgow Warriors by 6.
Connacht vs Ospreys
This is probably the tastiest looking game of the round bringing together two teams who are in fantastic form. Connacht have won their last four, whereas the Ospreys have lost only one of their last nine games. Their encounter earlier in the season during the World Cup saw the Irish running out 21-16 winners at the Liberty Stadium.
Connacht have recovered really well from their blip in form when they lost three games in a row at the turn of the year. They are a difficult team to beat at the Sportsground, and with a Saturday evening kick and a cold wind blowing in from the North Atlantic, home advantage may be significant. Connacht by 2.
Edinburgh vs Scarlets
Edinburgh have had a torturous three week period in Wales having lost consecutively to the Blues, Scarlets and Ospreys. They will be sick of the sight of Welsh opposition and are worryingly losing touch with the group of teams above them in the league. Last week they looked bereft of attacking ideas at times against the Ospreys, and their inability to turn pressure in to points cost them. The Scarlets surprised a few people with a hugely important away win against Ulster. It’s a victory which sees them remain in serious contention just two points off the top of the table.
These teams went head to head only two weeks ago with the Scarlets perhaps fortunate to win by a single point. It will be close again; Edinburgh will look to gain dominance upfront, whilst Scarlets will want a faster more open game. Given the difference in where each team’s attacking threat comes from, the weather will perhaps play a part. Scarlets belief and confidence is high, whereas Edinburgh are wondering how to recapture some of their early season form. Scarlets by 3.
Cardiff Blues vs Ulster
Another tricky game to call with both sides losing by a single point last weekend. The Blues came painfully close to upsetting Leinster, losing out 13-14, which was an impressive response to their humbling the week before in Treviso. Meanwhile Ulster were beaten at home by Scarlets 20-21. The Blues continue to get things ‘nearly right’ and will want to bring a pace to the game to make things as uncomfortable as possible for their visitors. Ulster have a good record in this fixture having only lost once in seven meetings.
Expect another close one, with the home side finally putting things right on the pitch and securing a narrow win. Cardiff Blues by 3.
Benetton Treviso vs Munster
Who would have thought that we would be looking at the possibility of Treviso winning their third game in a row? Well that’s the reality after having defeated both Cardiff and the Dragons. The arrival of new coach Kieran Crowley has clearly had the desired effect.
So can the trend continue? Well the omens are not good; they have played the Irish visitors three times already this season and lost on each occasion. Munster however, have managed to lose their last two games against Ospreys and Glasgow and really need to pick up a win to close the eight point gap from seventh to fourth place. If they fail to do so then their top four aspirations will start to evaporate.
It’s not the kind of foregone conclusion that it would have been three weeks ago, but Munster should have a bit too much experience and guile for this improving Treviso team. Munster by 8.
Zebre vs Leinster
Only two weeks ago, Leinster thumped Zebre 52-0 at the RDS Arena. Last week the Italians leaked a further 51 points to Connacht. Clearly there are some serious defensive issues needing addressed. Having Leinster visiting is probably the last thing they want whilst in such a fragile state. Despite only winning by a point on Sunday, Leinster will have been reasonably happy given the improved performance from Cardiff and this trip will not hold any particular fears for them.
Whilst not expecting a further 50 point rout, Leinster should win with plenty to spare. Leinster by 15.
By Keith Mackenzie
Follow Keith on Twitter: @Keith_Mack7