Before the Six Nations started, we highlighted a few key matches where Lions candidates would be going head-to-head, and with the help of Accenture’s match data, we can see how they went.
Second Row
Richie Gray, Jonny Gray, Devin Toner and Iain Henderson will all be hoping for a ticket to New Zealand, but not all will travel, so Warren Gatland must decide between them.
Here are some key stats from the match in terms of their individual contributions.
The Tackles and Rucks stats seem to reflect the game, where Ireland enjoyed 59% of possession so the Irish pair cleared out more rucks, whilst the Scots made more tackles. Nevertheless, 27 tackles in a match from Jonny Gray is quite extraordinary. Richie and Jonny Gray between them made over 20% of Scotland’s tackles, and that sort of work rate in defence is likely to be very helpful against the All Blacks.
But the Scots also contributed more in the loose, with 27 carries compared to 9 from their Irish opposition, which is all the more impressive given the overall possession stats, and I’d say the Gray brothers would have their noses in front on these results. Keep an eye on them in Paris this weekend.
Tighthead Prop
Given that Tadhg Furlong seems to be inked into most people’s Lions teams, it’s interesting to see how his opposite number Zander Fagerson measured up on Saturday.
The stats suggest that Furlong offers more options in attack, whilst Fagerson is more defensive-minded. The Irishman 11 carries and 6 over the gainline are notable – and tighthead props shouldn’t be beating 3 defenders! The four locks assessed above beat 0 defenders between them all, so this is remarkable from Furlong.
By contrast, Fagerson’s tackle count is eye-catching – 17 was more than any other prop on the opening weekend of the Six Nations. Something tells me that the Lions will need to make a lot of tackles in New Zealand, and this sort of defensive workrate could come in handy.
Wing
Like in the second row, we had four viable Lions contenders on show at the weekend in Keith Earls, Simon Zebo, Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour, and the stats suggest that there’s not much between them.
Seymour and Zebo are potentially nudging ahead of Maitland and Earls according to these stats, and those missed tackles have to go down as a black mark against the latter pair. However, the turnovers conceded – particularly the three from Seymour – might be cause for concern in light of the All Blacks’ propensity to attack from turnover ball. This stat does not appear above, because there weren’t any.
The Irish pair are noticeably ahead in terms of rucking, although I’m not sure of the relevance for a wing – perhaps it just shows that Ireland were attacking more in the wide channels and so Zebo and Earls were often the first to arrive at the breakdown. Keith Earls’ ‘ruck effectiveness’ was scored at 77%, which suggests that for three of those 13 rucks hit, he didn’t actually do anything.
Nevertheless, competition remains very tight here, with Seymour and Zebo the ones to watch this weekend.
Thanks to Accenture for the statistics – follow @AccentureRugby or visit accenture-rugby.com
Follow Hutch on Twitter: @Hutch_James
Is the ‘wings’ graphic working for others?
Thanks, fixed!
This was a really interesting article, nice work. Also, Cam, that graphic worked on a laptop but not on my phone!
it should be noted the importance of not relying too heavily on these statistics. Maitland might have missed a tackle, but his defensive effort really helped Scotland out of some holes.
Likewise on the lineout stats, i presume it was the lineout caller (R or J Gray) who spotted the gap and called it for dunbar to go through (correct me if I’m wrong on that one though)
Clearly a planned move with an option to change it if dunbar was marked. The interesting thing about that was that it was furlong who turned his back on dunbar and created the hole
It would be interesting to see where on the field the missed tackles were. This would indicate the level of danger to the try line. Maitland’s try saving defence was outstanding, but the stats don’t necessary reflect his contribution to the team in this respect.
Personally I would select Maitland over Earls and Zebo over Seymour. The fact that Maitland and Zeboe can both play at 15 helps as well.
Kearney and Hogg’s stats would be very interesting?