Warren Gatland has some more decisions to make this week, and here is the team I would pick for the deciding Test this weekend.
The weather forecast could be a factor, but it’s New Zealand and likely to be wet, even if it isn’t quite as heavy as in Wellington. Here’s the forecast for the week:
With that in mind, I’d look for minimal changes to last weekend’s team, with room for improvement in just one or two areas.
1. Jack McGrath
Mako Vunipola’s indiscipline could have cost the series, and I actually think he’s a better impact sub. Let McGrath start and dominate some scrums, with Mako let loose later on.
2. Jamie George
One of the tour’s standout players.
3. Tadhg Furlong
Stick with Furlong starting, with the impact of Kyle Sinckler later on.
4. Courtney Lawes
AWJ had a decent game, but Lawes is on another level and can bring more disruption, aggression and line speed.
5. Maro Itoje
One of the first names on the teamsheet.
6. Sam Warburton
Had a good game last weekend and will be eyeing up back-to-back Lions series victories as captain.
7. Sean O’Brien
Thankfully free to play after being cited, and a ban would have left a huge hole.
8. Toby Faletau
No debate here.
9. Conor Murray
Murray to start with Rhys Webb on the bench feels like the right way around.
10. Johnny Sexton
His 10/12 partnership with Owen Farrell is worth sticking with, I think.
11. Elliot Daly
An assured presence on the wing, and that big boot might yet come in handy.
12. Owen Farrell
He’ll be expecting Ngani Laumape running down his channel, but will be able to deal with it.
13. Jonathan Davies
A slow start to the tour, but he’s having a great Test series.
14. Jack Nowell
Anthony Watson hasn’t quite done it for me, and I’d be tempted to put Nowell in as a different sort of threat, with Watson on the bench.
15. Liam Williams
I’m tempted by Leigh Halfpenny here, because Williams has looked vulnerable under the high ball, but Williams poses much more threat in attack and is a better option with the twin playmakers.
16. Kyle Sinckler
17. Ken Owens
18. Mako Vunipola
19. Iain Henderson – unlikely that AWJ will be out of the squad, but Henderson is a great bench option.
20. Justin Tipuric – I’d have Tipuric ahead of CJ Stander, given that Henderson and Vunipola offer ball-carrying options.
21. Rhys Webb
22. Ben Te’o
23. Anthony Watson
What do you think? Feel free to share your selections in the comments below.
Follow Hutch on Twitter: @Hutch_James
Agree with McGrath for Mako. Disagree with Lawes and Nowell.
Itoje was great last weekend, but gave a couple of pens away and couple of unforced errors. AWJ has a lot of critics, but I think he is in for his experience / leadership and that will allow Itoje to thrive. Let AWJ start, make sure set piece is working and we have built a solid foundation, and then let Lawes come on early and cause havoc at 50 mins.
Watson hasn’t done much, but has looked v.solid in defense and will finish if given half an opportunity. Don’t trust Nowell’s positioning in defense.
Agree with your assessment of Williams – bit nervous about him under the high ball, but need his creativity. Also agree with Tipuric over Stander.
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I’d keep Watson over Nowell, for his pace, (since Nowell was exposed for flat speed earlier in the tour) with JJ on the bench covering centre/wing (since the starting back 3 have fullback covered)
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Can’t just have Daly for his boot. Watson had a massive game in the kick chase department, offers huge amounts of counter attacking ability as well as being able to find time and often space within tight and congested areas. Easily the tourists best finisher, has to start.
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Well done Hutch – absolutely spot on selection… Henderson and Lawes are carrying and competing so well… they both deserve a place… AWJ experience doesn’t do enough to keep out a very experienced Lawes, and the hunger and ball carrying of hendog… good call with Nowell!
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Hutch, I would not even have Vunipola on the bench after last week. I’d give Marler a chance as he has been very solid. Nowell does bring something different to Watson but is not as quick. I would stick with him. Agree with your second row choices but it won’t happen. AB’ s by 14.
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Have to agree with Andy here, Vunipola’s tank is empty. Marler has done enough to warrant a bench spot.
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For me Watson has done enough to warrant starting. He’s involvement in Murray’s try alone justify selection.
On AWJ I’m prepared to eat a bit of humble pie as he had a very good 2nd test. I think whether he starts or not is down to how Garland sends the team out.
I hope he sends them out ready to throw it all at the Kiwis, to build on the momentum gained, to go all out to defend through attacking and to really look to force the ABs onto the back foot. If he’s to do that I’d want Lawes and Maro to start with Alun coming onto to help hold a lead where his experience will prove invaluable.
And if Gatt sends the team out to do this, win lose or draw, I personally will publically rescind my criticisms of him. And assume Steve Borthwick has locked Rob Howley up somewhere.
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while Watson hasn’t done it for you i think he has been one of the better players looking threatening ball in hand on the counter and pressurising with his kick chase. Other than that i agree with the changes
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Only change in the Starting XV is Vunipola swapping with McGrath on the bench. On the bench bring in Tipuric for Stander and that’s yer lot
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I also think MV to the bench is the only change.
AWJ didn’t set the world alight last weekend but he was solid and did little wrong. Much better we have him on to help build a solid platform and being Lawes on to smash holes at 50mins.
I also think Watson has been great defensively, that catch in the first test from the BB cross field kick was awesome. In fact if anything I’d say move him to FB and bring JK onto the wing and drop LW to the bench! Though I would like to see JJ stretch his legs in a test!
I’m hoping that the AB will be so mad and full of anger that it will count against them and they will try too hard and make silly errors. Wishful thinking but so was a win last weekend…
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Id say drop Tipuric and put POM in the bench, it offers great lineout option and aggresiveness/energy, and is for me as good as Tipuric at the breakdown.
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Agree with the McGrath for Mako, but not Nowell for Watson. Watson has been outstanding all tour, and did nothing wrong last week. Can’t help thinking Nowell could be outdone for pace pr in the air against the ABs.
I also disagree about Lawes for AWJ. I would bring Kruis back in to partner Itoje, as they play together so much, why break up a winning partnership. Look how good they were for England last year and for Saracens for the last two seasons. They compliment each other and work better together. Lawes or Henderson on the bench to come on later and make/stop hard yards.
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The above is what everyone else thinks, but does Gatland think? Will he ACTUALLY change his starting line up? Poss, but unlikely. He’s pretty conservative @ heart & will therefore prob stick to last wk’s team. Don’t see Nowell starting as he was skinned x2 earlier on tour. Like most, better going fwd. Poss swap McGrath & Vunipola for the latter’s 2 penalty foul plays on Barrett. Will need people who can stay disciplined & the AB’s won’t intend to be the 2nd team to lose a series @ home. They will prob keep their discipline. And besides, it’s how the individuals play as a team rather than as a team of individuals. Bit much down playing of the red & some up playing of the 3 pt win in some 1/4ers. Likely to have little significance for nxt Sat however.. unless history repeats!? Esp if in reverse! Best team with best tactics should prevail. All things being equal, still AB’s by 20.
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Mako does so much unseen good work in the maul like his brother but agree would let him come flying off the bench at half time. Although Sexton and Farrell have all the heart in the world, I still worry about our defences being breached down the middle in open play. I think Watson has an amazing jinking try in him, so I would start with him – he’s also been so safe (famous last words).
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NickMM
If MV does so much ‘unseen’ good work in the maul, how do you know he does it then? Better to judge by what CAN be seen innit?
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Don’t know why you refer to your selections as Lions, this is yet again a Tri-nations team and for 3rd test with no Scots a poor representation of the 4 home nations. Greig who played 80 minutes in last mid week game and never threw a bad pass and in the few games he played Tommy Seymour was top try scorer but with no one on coaching staff, as Gregor went with Scottish team, no chance for the Scottish boys as none of the coaches seem to even consider them.
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May, its because it is a Lions selection.
As Stesco says, Hogg would have most likely played. Nel too, had he not be out injured for so long.
Laidlaw did throw some poor passes – in fact his service in the last game was quite mediocre, so i do not think that it is unreasonable to see him as the third choice, at this time, of the squad 9’s.
Seymour started very poorly on the tour – otherwise he may well have got a test spot. He is a good player, but so are the others, and in all honesty any of the other wings could have scored the tries he scored, and possibly even the one he butchered.
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Sorry but Hogg would have been the only one worthy of getting into the test 15, Gatland is there to try & win a test series not an equal opportunity contest. Scotland have done well over the past year as a team but individually they are not as good as the other nations, harsh but true.
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Looking at this team I think it is very different to the team I expected after the six nations. If every one was fit I would of picked this team:
1- Mcgrath
2- George
3- Nel
4- Itoje
5- Kruis
6- O’Brien
7- Watson
8- Vunipola
9- Murray
10- Russell
11- Nowell
12- Farrell
13- Jones
14- Watson
15- Hogg
16- Owens
17- Vunipola
18- Furlong
19- R Gray
20- Falatau
21- Price
22- Joseph
23- L Williams
In terms of nations this team is compiled of 3 Irish, 7 Scots, 3 Welsh and 9 Englishmen. Which I think is a slightly better spli
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are you talking about the last 6N/ the one when that Wales outplayed England to see them score a last min winner and then get beat by an Ireland team that Wales smashed ? ,..seems a it dis-proportionate to me , and the Welsh back row won every contest of every game if my memory serves me right , and as a 3 prob only ABs have a better back row , i thought North had 4 trys? , Murray outplayed by Webb AGAIN!, I have yet to see Kruis prove he is world class, i don’t get the hype, i must be missing somethin’!
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You’re correct Osiboy, you are missing something. The word is objectivity.
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This is the most hilariously biased comment I have read in a long time.
Are you really talking about the 2017 6 Nations, when the Welsh were so poor that they only just managed to come above Italy in the table?
When they lost comprehensively to Scotland for the first time in an entire decade and were beaten by the worst French team in years, failing to score a single try?
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Osiboy
Take little note of Blub’s lecture on objectivity. He seems to prefer that the Lions play with 14 as it would make zip difference as to a matches outcome. Agree with you regarding Kruis. Mainly built a rep in a WINNING club side Saracens, but he is NOT even 1st choice for England. Also if he’s so ‘w class’, why did Gatland ditch him? Subjectivity’s a funny old thing. Sometimes dressed up as patriotism or jingoism.
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I’d suggest George has been 1st choice for England. Injury kept him out of 6 nations. Before that he was first choice as he called Englands line outs.
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Don, Have I lectured on objectivity?
Of course, it is a worthy concept so I could do, but not sure that I have. Have I?
“He seems to prefer that the Lions play with 14 as it would make zip difference as to a matches outcome.”
Do you mean me??? I certainly do not prefer that the Lions play with 14, so I have either mis-represented my views, or you are more muddled.
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Ummm Don. Kruis was an integral part of England’s winning streak and 2016 Grand Slam. He is first choice and had he not been injured would have been first choice throughout the 6 nations. That is where his rep has come from as well as his success in the world’s most competitive club competition.
It is notable that Kruis was apparently one of the first names on the Lions team sheet, despite his lack of game time.
He had a bad day in the first test agreed but Gatland’s dropping of him and retention of AWJ says more about Gatland than it does about Kruis.
And even world class players are allowed the occasional off day. Witness Whitelock’s performance last Saturday
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Pab
Kruis had another bad day in Dublin & is part of a winning set up when most look gd, incl Whitelock admittedly, but 1 day in a depleted pack, like 1 swallow & a summer & all that, by the latter doesn’t reflect his proven record of getting to where he is today. It’s just that Kruis has yet to do it consistently do it @ the top table yet.Ask Gatland?
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Kruis was injured for the Dublin fixture Don…
He is undoubtedly first choice for England when fit and was an absolute mountain in Australia last summer. I’m sure is AWJ didn’t have so many Lions caps under his belt and was compared just on his rugby playing attributes, Kruis would be leaving this tour with 3 test starts.
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Pab
Kruis keeps missing vital line outs! Recall Dublin? I’ve mentioned it often enough. Also 3rd test when he was yanked? Lions line out down to 77%! Whitelock was in a 7 man pack FCOL. Please.
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Loving the debate, some get a bit techy and precious and think theirs is the only worthy opinion. Mine is that Launchury is the number 1 second row in the NH and would be first on the team sheet, even above itoje. Others are good too but are behind Launchbury and I really can’t understand why he is not on this tour! I am completely baffled by this.
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Not seen McGrath dominate anything in any game he’s been involved with so far. In fact quite the opposite. Hopefully he has a much better game in him and may show it if he starts
Personally though I’d start Marler who may have his moments but has played very well this tour in the tight and the loose. His aggression, if it can be contained and used, is exactly what the Lions will need.
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Totally agree Pablito.
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Some reports this morning (Times I think) suggesting that Marler may well replace McGrath.
…and Tipuric for Stander – which I like.
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Yeah, Stander hasn’t been bad as such, just slightly ineffective at what he is meant to be good at – making hard yards.
Tipuric has been very good and although I think he’s too lightweight to thrive from the start, from about 50/60 he’ll be a great impact sub.
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Yes agreed, Pablito.
No doubt New Zealand will have some thoughts on how to mitigate the Sexton/Farrell partnership, so depending on how this plays out it would be interesting to see a change through the game to Tipuric and Te’o, as I can see us really benefiting from Tipuric supporting the lines of Te’o and Davies.
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Blub
NZ may go down a man again, but as this is hopefully unlikely, they’ll combat Sexton/ Farrell, Tipuric and Te’o et all by dominating the breakdown as in the 1st test. And even if the Lions were to go down a man this time (although presumably also unlikely?), this prob won’t effect the matches outcome will it?
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Don given the ABs didn’t come close to dominating the breakdown in the first 25 mins while they had 15 men, I’m not sure why you are so confident that they will be able to do it this time
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Don,
When a team loses a player, it doesn’t necessarily affect the outcome of the game.
What is does affect is how the teams play, as both teams will change their approach, both to their attempted control of their game and to counter the changes that the opposition implement.
It is fair to say that the team with more players should perform better, but whether this leads to a successful result depends entirely upon how both teams change their approach.
Taking this Saturdays game in isolation, my opinion is that if there is a Red card (and I genuinely hope that there isn’t), the team that receives it will lose.
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Very true. Red cards can sometimes free teams as no one expects them to win. At the very least it makes them focus more on getting the basics right as there is no room for error.
For the team with 15, they can sometimes freeze under the weight of expectation and the longer a game lasts without them leading as they should be, the more panicked they can get.
See the England Argentina game when Daly got sent off in the first few minutes for an example.
Likewise it goes some way to explaining last Saturday. The ABs played a period of brilliant, simple rugby to take the lead whilst the Lions panicked and almost lost it. Luckily they recovered and took control at a crucial point
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Pablito ditto Blub.
Would you rather yr team plays with 14 or 15? Suggest that as it was an NZ red you’re downplaying its significance. If it it had been the other way around, what do think you would have opined then?
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Don, I am still puzzled that you infer I (and/or others) would rather my team played with 14.
Ridiculous.
From where does this thought process come?
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looking at the first two test and tour in general, the key area I believe we need to work on is discipline. With that in mind I’d pick McGrath, with Mako benching. Marler has played well this tour, but is prone to brain fart moments!
As for second rows, you could argue AWJ is necessary for leadership, experience and maintaining discipline, however he’s been in the starting XV for both tests and our discipline has been atrocious, so I don’t see the harm in bringing in Kruis to start for line out prowess and Lawes to smash from the bench
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Decent looking team, agree with MV on the bench, he was shocking last week. And I also think he will start with AWJ again.
I have a sneaky feeling (not what I would do mind) that Gatland will drop Daly, move Liam Williams to the wing (where he has always seen him playing) and put Halfpenny at full back. If it’s a tight game I suppose its a good thing to have the worlds best kicker in your team.
Just a Thought !
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Also had this thought, similar to dropping BOD, he would resort to what he knows best.
In this instance, it would be a shocking decision. Halfpenny has been pretty mediocre this tour; his defence has been ok, and sometimes questionable, but his contribution in attack has been non-existent. With Farrell on the field you have someone who is just as capable at slotting over the pressure kicks. There is no need to disrupt a back-three that performed pretty well in the last 2 tests.
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Jake
Surely the only back who has possibly ‘excelled’ on tour is Jon Davies. The wingers have hardly scored volumes of tries, have fumbled too often or thrown to an invisible team mate & Williams, e.g., whilst setting up THAT try, also dropped a few clangers which in 1 case led to Ioans’s score. The 1/2’s have been ok, also generally kicking a lot, but nothing scintillating & only looked better when NZ were down a flanker last up & so were exposed.
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I would say that if any back were to be dropped, it would justifiably be Williams. Though great in attack he seems less than solid under a high ball.
I think the wingers have done well with what they’ve been dealt; poor conditions have led this to be a test series dominated by Forward play with very little ball making its way out wide. There have been very few chances for either sides wingers; as you said Ioane was partly gifted his 2nd try – though I must admit it was impressive when he switch on the afterburners.
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Still a fascinating tussle though!
A different type/game of rugby which just because it doesn’t possess free flowing running rugby doesn’t make it a snorefest! The clash of styles i would argue makes it all the more fascinating watching.
Gatland is too wily to have made it a “lets beat them at their own game” type of match (he tried it with Wales and lost).
That is why the ‘best of british’ policy and strategy (excuse the pun for Brit and Irish Lions) is probably a template that is here to stay. Eddie Jones with England is certainly not going to encourage ‘running around like headless chickens’ to beat the ABs.
One style is no better than the other! NOT WHEN YOU’VE WON….right?
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