It’s fair to say that England’s preparations for these QBE Internationals have been far from perfect. It’s becoming an increasingly tired refrain, but their injury troubles are catastrophic – they could essentially name a full XV of walking wounded.
Still, Stuart Lancaster isn’t one for excuses and you can bet that their opposition this autumn, not to mention the rest of the rugby world, won’t be shedding any tears for them. With all that in mind, let’s have a look at what might be in store for England this autumn.
STRENGTHS
The set-piece has long been a strength of England’s, and there’s nothing to suggest that it won’t be this autumn, too. Actually, that’s not true – they’re missing their first choice props and main line-out man. Courtney Lawes’ rise to line-out supremo in Geoff Parling’s absence, however, has been astonishing and his partnership with Dylan Hartley is a strong one, steeped in experience from club level.
The scrum might be a different matter, with no Dan Cole or Alex Corbisiero, but provided Dave Wilson doesn’t sustain an injury there should be enough strength in depth for it to not become a completely debilitating issue.
Psychologically, England know they can win at least three from four this autumn. South Africa are the only side they haven’t yet defeated with Lancaster at the helm, but they haven’t played them since 2012 when they lost by a single point. They have made strides in their quality of rugby since then.
They will be fresh compared to the touring sides, having had a couple of weeks away from any action and having not played any test match rugby for several months. That should see them with plenty in the tank when it comes to the final few minutes of a game.
WEAKNESSES
Of course, for freshness you could just as well read rustiness – England will, understandably, take a little while to hit their stride and get into their patterns again. With that in mind, it is far from ideal that they face the only two teams above them in the world rankings on the opening two weekends – they will have to hit the ground not running but charging if they are to reach the Samoa game with at least one win under their belts.
As has been the norm in the past few years, the composition of the back-line remains shrouded in uncertainty. There is plenty of talent – how best to use it is the question. Owen Farrell provides a reliability at fly-half but his play-making deficiencies (relative to others) means much attacking responsibility falls on the centres – something Billy Twelvetrees has never seemed comfortable with, to the point where it will be a surprise if he plays this autumn. Kyle Eastmond and Brad Barritt look like the frontrunners, and do provide a good blend of flair and defensive solidity, but it is yet another new centre partnership for England.
KEY PLAYERS
Dylan Hartley
With so many front five players injured, England need their most experienced head in that grittiest of areas to really stand up and be counted. So much responsibility will fall on his shoulders, not just at the set-piece but in terms of leadership in general. England are missing lots of their most influential characters and will need Hartley to be not just a player but a leader. With Rob Webber snapping at his heels after a strong tour of New Zealand, too, Hartley will know he needs to perform well.
Mike Brown
Brown is one of the very few English backs justifiably guaranteed of a starting spot for the autumn. This time last year he went from being a good, solid fullback to being that first name on the teamsheet, who always seemed to duck and weave his way out of a couple of tackles. In a backline that is likely to be shaken up thanks to injuries and loss of form, performances of that ilk once again can inspire the rest of the backs onto greater things.
WIN/LOSS PREDICTION
Anything less than three wins will feel like a failure for England. A year out from a home World Cup, they need to be sending the message that Twickenham is a fortress – any side that arrives here in 2015 will have that feeling that last time they did so, they ended up beaten. Do not underestimate the importance of that.
I think they’ll get their three wins, just about, but one of either New Zealand or South Africa will prove too strong for them. Samoa should be swotted aside with relative ease, and the Aussies, despite some reasonably impressive recent form, look the weakest of the big three and arriving last at Twickenham, they could have run out of steam a bit. Wins: three, Losses: one.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
20 replies on “QBE Internationals 2014: what can we expect from England?”
I’m a bit confused by these predictions – much as I am by those in the Guardian predicting a NZ v Eng world cup final with half of them saying Eng will win it. Undoubtedly Eng are a decent team but if I was talking up Wales this much then I’d be rightly pilloried for it.
Wales – 0 wins against the big 3 oppo under Gats. 0% wins. Abuse dished out about this by the bucket load, for both Gats and Welsh rugby in general.
Eng – 2 wins out of 11 against the big 3 oppo under SL. 18% wins – Aus it’s 50% ratio, NZ it’s a 20% win ratio. Eng lauded as an up and coming team who will clock in time for the WC, SL feted as someone who turned the ship around.
He’s only got a 33% win ratio against Wales (played 3, lost 2).
Mathematically undoubtedly better than Wales against the big 3 under SL. But is 18% better enough to expect them to beat, say, SA and Aus this autumn and then go on to a WC final that they’d have a good chance of winning? I just don’t see it. That’s before I see the midfield for this weekend and beyond (pedestrian this weekend, uncertain for the near future), the injury problems up front and in the second row and the dips in form of players key to these 2 wins – Mike Brown, Ben Youngs, Danny Care, etc.
Much seems to be made of 2 things
– Lancaster has “changed the culture”. Not impressed. Getting rid of old pros with massive egos, pointing out that drinking and gallivanting around after losses is not on. Basic stuff. Even Gats did this with Wales – nobody lauded him for it, it’s basic.
– England are an improving team and hence will be better in 6 months than they are now. This latter one seems to be the key basis for talking up their future results. But the same thing was said 12 months ago.
So my confusion comes from the fact that I can’t see the solid basis for why England are seen as the most likely NH team to do the top 3 this year and conversely the chances of the rest are largely dismissed. I can see why loads of people would want that to be the case though.
I like your use of stats Brighty, but I’m not sure how they’re that relevant. The ones that really matter are over the last couple of years – any further back than that they get increasingly irrelevant. In the last two years England have beaten New Zealand and Australia – that’s a fact, and means psychologically they go into these games knowing they can win (note – I’m not saying that means Wales think they can’t win).
Lancaster et al have stated time and again that they’ve been building ever since they took over, focusing on basics first then gradually adding more to England’s game. That’s why fans are optimistic they can keep improving.
Re the culture thing, you can scoff at it but this article (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/england/11196506/Revealed-How-Stuart-Lancaster-transformed-England-from-national-laughing-stock-into-World-Cup-hopefuls.html) does prove how hard he’s worked to instil the kind of pride in the jersey that NZ have. Maybe Gats has done that too, I don’t know, but if he has then I think it’s definitely something to be lauded, not swept under the rug. It’s exactly what England needed post 2011.
I don’t think you can take from this that I think England are the most likely to turn over the SH sides though – I’ve not commented anywhere on what I think their chances are. For reference, I think Wales have a good chance too.
Normally I’d agree with you about stats – I have little time for them. Except for one – wins. I think looking at SLs entire record, given it’s only been since the last WC, is reasonable. If England had beaten either of Aus or NZ more than once then I’d agree with you much more but one off wins don’t do enough for me to convince me of this progression and plan. Eng’s win record against SL has been fairly consistent – he has a higher win ratio than Gats. I don’t see this progression that is mentioned – I still see confusion over selection, reliance on some injury prone guys and key questions unanswered e.g. who is really the best FH?
I did read that article – I “scoffed” at that one as well. I’m just not that impressed by coaches expecting players to be pros, adults and to die for the jersey. I think England were at a low ebb around 2011 but that that was a blip. SL has been in charge while it was returned to the norm i.e. utter pride in the jersey. It looks great in contrast to the post-2003 era but I say that says more about that era than SLs ability to turn it around.
I take your point about Wales and the others. I’m reading this with a Welsh perspective. Leaving that aside then I just think that basically predicting a win against Aus and SA doesn’t stack up against recent performances or results of Eng and both of those teams.
If we’re looking at stats for the WC then we really need to be looking at home matches.
Under SL, England have won 2, lost 3 at home vs the Big 3. A 40% win ratio
(In the same time frame, Wales have won 0, lost 4 at home. A 0% win ratio)
So looking at the stats, England have a 40% chance of beating the big 3 at home – pretty reasonable when it comes to one off games.
If we then win 3/4 this autumn ( accept its a big if), we’ll be looking at a win ratio of 55%. Given home advantage and this kind of win ratio, I really do not think its that silly to be describing England as potential RWC finalists
“If we then win 3/4 this autumn ( accept its a big if), we’ll be looking at a win ratio of 55%. Given home advantage and this kind of win ratio, I really do not think its that silly to be describing England as potential RWC finalists” – aye I agree, more or less said the same to Stu. After this autumn, if Eng have won those matches, then agree – they’re final contenders. My point was that the chances are being talked up before backing up the individual wins.
PS. If you win 3 from 4 this autumn then your home win ratio against top 3 will either be 4 from 8 or 5 from 8 (the latter assuming Samoa is the one you lose…).
So that s 50% or 62% at home … isn’t it?
Repeating myself – agreed, do it at home this autumn and nobody could argue with their credentials. But they’re not there yet.
For clarity – I know Jamie isn’t talking about WC chances here, I was also referring to the recent stuff from pundits predicting Eng/NZ final with half predicting an Eng win.
I don’t necessarily agree that going back to the WC is fair. Over half of the 2012 6N squad were not in the 2011 WC squad just a few months earlier. So come summer 2012 when we went away to SA, lost two and drew one – that team was not only completely brand new and inexperienced, but it is nothing like the team England put out today, in personnel and experience. We haven’t then played SA since Autumn 2012 when we lost by a point. Again, if the inexperienced England side of then got that result then I think it is perfectly reasonable to suggest we have a chance of a win this time around.
Australia – last time we played them we beat them. So yes, I expect England to beat them again. Am I sure they will? Of course not, but as I expect England to continually move forward a win therefore is what I’d expect from them.
NZ is an difficult one to predict favourably. If they play to their best – we are extremely (or definitely) likely to lose. Alternatively, if we play to our absolute best, and they underperform (much like 2012), then I do think we have a chance. England did go to NZ this summer and twice run them close in their own back yard. So again, why is it unreasonable for us to think we have a good chance at home? Fully aware I’ve ignore the fact we got trashed in the final test by the way.
Essentially, my point is, whilst you may see it as ridiculous English optimism, I think it is fair enough to expect three from four here.
As for the WC – can’t comment on why on earth we can be talking about winning the thing. There is though a great opportunity to whoever tops the Eng/Aus/Wal group to not play either SA or NZ until the final. So, if their point was that they believe Eng will top the group (hardly an outrageous prediction), then I therefore don’t think the final prediction is ridiculous either. Should point out it is not my prediction, more just trying to find a reason for theirs.
I mean just after i.e. from when SL became in charge. So I’m not including the WC itself.
I understand what you’re saying Jacob but I could take the same points and see them the other way e.g. England don’t have the same players that did ok in SA … so they have no way of knowing if they’ll do better or not now? If personnel changes discount the result then it’s no indicator at all going forward.
I still think it’s optimism though to go for 3 wins from 4. I take your point about Aus (as a side, the Aus team talks must write themselves as all of us assume that’s our best chance of a win) but you concede that you lost against SA, with different players, and you played an underperforming NZ so to expect to beat one of them now is optimistic. Add in the injuries, form dips etc. and I’d say 2 from 4 is the more realistic expectation, 3 from 4 is the stretch goal.
PS. I don’t think NZ under performed in that game personally. England outdid themselves – they clicked, some bounces went their way and they smashed NZ out of the way. They made NZ under perform. Unfortunately I think the manner of it, the alignment of perfect execution, players and bounces from England, makes it extremely hard to repeat. It was a win playing beautifully.
The reasoning for now believing we have more of a chance against SA is I truly believe we are a much better side than 2012, and when I consider the closer of the games then it gives me the belief that this time we have a good chance of a win.
2 from 4 wouldn’t surprise me, but I would be dissapointed. So what do I expect? Three wins.
If Wales get 1 win against an SH side you won’t be saying a 6% win ratio isn’t much better than a 0% ratio then? I’m sure it will (rightly) be seen as a massive result, not that another 5 wins are needed on the bounce for it to be statistically significant.
So having got a win against Aus and NZ and and away draw against SA is significantly better than having lost every time.
Let’s take the example of Argentina, there win ratio in the rugby championship isn’t too good, but the importance to them of getting the first win is massive.
I agree with the point that our record isn’t good enough to make us favourites, but disagree that the results we have got are not still significant.
Looks like we agree Matt – the wins themselves are significant, much better than losing. Getting the monkey off the back etc. My point is that predicting 3 from 4 this autumn and/or WC final appearance based on 1 win against NZ and 1 against Aus isn’t realistic. My point is that I don’t understand why Eng are being talked up so much (as to me saying less than 3 from 4 is a failure and/or they’ll be finalists next year is talking them up beyond their current track record).
Talking them up cos you’re a fan, you expect them to win/improve, etc.is a different thing to trying to take a pundits more measured appraisal.
Is the one-eyed profile pic a bit of clever irony or just coincidence?
Oh, the meta-irony of the one eyed pointing out one eyed-ness in others. A moebius strip of irony.
Brighty, I think your comment is perfectly reasonable and, as much as I would like to, i cant disagree with your assessment of WC chance.
The only thing I would say is I don’t think the results of this autumn will carry as much weight, if england lose, due to the massive casualty list. I know injuries are part of the game but no one could possibly say england will field a line up this month that would start the WC next year if all were fit.
In a way I think it could be a positive as losses won’t be so damaging but wins could add real excitement going forward.
I agree with that Stu – no Tui, Cole or thingy in the backrow (I am so bad at names…) is a big loss for England. Could also argue that Farrel isn’t on top form yet either. I’d say that makes the chance of 2 out of 3 against the top 3 even less likely.
Mind you – if it does happen then hats off and then Eng could rightly start talking about their chances. I’m just saying that the current situation and track record doesn’t indicate a 3 wins out of 4 to me. So say less than 3 is a failure is sort of one of the problems Eng encounter – they’re assumed to be better than they are so have little time or freedom to move and develop.
Brighty, I think Jamie’s predition of 3 from 4 is perfectly reasonable. And I say that as a completely one-eyed England fan.
Trying to be more realistic:
I will be very disappointed if we lose to Aus. I think we are improving and to be in with a chance next year we need to be improving. If we lose to Aus it is an indicator that, in relative terms, we have not improved, but got worse.
I will be “well chuffed” if we beat SA. They are playing fantastic rugby at the moment. and we have a particularly long injury list (though everyone has some injuries). Very little between them and NZ currently.
If we beat SA I would put us at 50:50 to beat NZ.
Unfortunately the games are in the wrong order. Losing to NZ may put SA beyond us. especially if we have any more injuries. But we will have to see. 2 out of 4 would leave me very confused, and inevitably giving it the “but we were close…” etc. Unfortunately for you, Wales have shown the relevance of “close” in the last few years (serious point, not a dig).
But as I said, 3 out of 4 is a certainty, and Jamie is not being at all optimistic/kind in predicting what we should expect.
Everyone is looking at NZ as the team to beat but I think SA are dark horses and maybe are going to be harder for NH teams. Meyer’s passion is turning them into a tough team
If the draw means NZ meet Fra on the way to the final then the rest of us can relax abut NZ and concentrate on Aus/SA …with hopefully the added advantage of seeing an even better match than the best WC match ever – Fra v NZ 99.
I think NZ might throw a game if France aren’t winning their group.
Ok I’m a South African… I love rugby… I’m going to be honest. If England ever had a good chance to beat the All Blacks it is now. All Blacks became sloppy. Look at there recent results in the rugby championship and the last game against Aus… The opening game of the championship they drew, then they got had a hard game against Argentina at home, they damn well nearly lost to the boks at wellington and then lost at Ellis park…. The All Blacks couldve aswell lost to Aus in the last game… Yes I believe England can Beat the All Blacks, and push Samoa aside and beat Aus…
South African and England Final that can be a festive game… New Zealand will fall out against france don’t stress people