After ‘that’ Japan result, there seems to be a collective rubbing of hands from anyone not regarded as a ‘tier one’ nation (whatever that means), as a belief starts to rise that anything may be possible for the underdog in this World Cup.  In response, some of the more established nations should be giving off a collective nervous squeak – and particularly perhaps the Australians, who are my dark horses for this World Cup, and not just because the ‘underdogs’ that they are facing are a group of supremely talented and (mostly) professional athletes.  

This game has become a bit of an unknown quantity due to the polar opposite build-up both sides have had – Fiji played in a brutal fixture on Friday; the Australians haven’t fielded a first choice side in one and a half months.  That Fijian banana-skin just got a whole lot bigger.

AUSTRALIA

Michael Cheika has gone and done what we were all afraid he would do – select Michael Hooper and David Pocock in the same starting XV.  Whilst being seemingly unfair to other countries, the performances of both men – two of the world’s standout opensides in their own right – in the Wallabies’ fine win over the mighty All Blacks was enough to convince Cheika (and the general rugby-watching public) that this was the right way to go.  

That display, where Pocock played at eight with Hooper taking the seven jersey, meant that both had free reign to play to their strengths, with Hooper hurtling around the pitch, making tackle, carries and generally causing mayhem, whilst Pocock was more considered, picking his moment to attack the breakdown – where he is, undoubtedly, the best in the business.  The same shirt numbers have been assigned for their opening World Cup game, which means the hard-grafting Scott Fardy, who is also a useful lineout option, gets the six shirt.  

It’s certainly a mobile backrow that is probably capable of disrupting any side’s attacking flow, but I do question their ability as a unit to make big yards with the ball in hand, especially in a narrow game – notwithstanding that Hooper is like an extra centre.

The other big calls are in playmaking shirts; with the scrum now looking seemingly solid, the real concern for Wallaby fans should be the half-back combination.  Nobody, this season, has grabbed the jersey with any authority and they’ve all looked flaky under pressure, leading to speculation that Chieka would be tempted to put the old trickster Matt Giteau in at fly half with the solid presence of Matt Toomua outside him to try and lend some stability.  

With Toomua on the bench, we might end up with that, but Cheika has stuck with Foley – who broke through so convincingly last season – and paired the Tahs man with the experienced head of Genia, rather than his clubmate Phipps, to try and bring greater control to the game.

One to watch: Will Genia

The back row will quite rightly be the area that gets a lot of scrutiny, but arguably greater pressure will fall on Will Genia, selected to start no doubt because of his previous World Cup experience.  Where the Wallabies have looked vulnerable is in that 9-10 link when the pressure’s been on from an aggressive and physical back row – which is exactly what they’ll face against Fiji.  Nick Phipps in particular has looked very wobbly and that’s why Genia’s role, above everything else, will be to play smartly – slowly and for territory if necessary – rather than putting more pressure on his half back partner.

FIJI

Most fans are in agreement that the scoreboard was a tad misleading in the opening World Cup game, and that Fiji were unlucky to concede a try bonus point to the hosts.  Undoubtedly the highlight for Fiji, blasting well against the old stereotype, was their defensive structure and aggressive line-speed, which consistently led to English players being chopped down behind the gainline, as well as their breakdown work which forced 10 turnovers and very handy number of penalties.  

Akapusi Qera – himself outstanding on Friday night – can take some comfort in the fact that, if Fiji hadn’t made the nervous mistakes that they did in the opening quarter of the game, they could have taken England right to the wire.

The big area that does need work, however, is their attack.  Unbelievable, I know.  Don’t get me wrong, we saw some cracking carries from Nemani Nadolo, some nice touches from Ben Volavola and of course the electric pace of Nikola Matawalu, but in that second half, when they caused England so much frustration, did they look like scoring a try themselves?  

The simple answer is no.  To that end, they have to work on going through the phases and looking after the ball, and not going for the ‘Hail Mary’ at every opportunity.  They have the size and power to get teams backpeddling by carrying through the fringes – as they did in the first half on Friday – and that is enough to create the space for some of the monsters lurking in their backline.

One to Watch: Nikola Matawalu

Whilst most Aussie eyes will be understandably fixed on that behemoth, Nemani Nadolo, Matawalu showed on Friday why he is the man who can really keep the Wallabies honest and fixed around the fringes.  His ‘non-try’ against England demonstrated breathtaking pace and impressive strength, the kind of attributes that cause any fringe defence nightmares.  Although his primary focus should, correctly, be on making sure his service is smooth and playing smartly where necessary, he needs to make sure that he tests those fringes on a semi-regular basis to slow the opposition defensive line’s advance.  The more space he gives Volavola, the more dangerous Fiji will be.

PREDICTION

I read somewhere that the Fijians were only targeting England or Wales as potential ‘upsets’ – but pay no notice of that, they will fancy their chances here.  Not only because of Japan’s phenomenal victory, which will have every Fijian wondering ‘Why not us?’, but also because this is a Wallaby team that will be rusty; their first string haven’t played since the end of the Rugby Championship.  Of course, the flipside is that Fiji played in a bruising encounter just five days ago.  In summary, the Wallabies will be rusty; the Fijians will be knackered.  Expect a close first half – perhaps even a Fijian lead – but for the Aussies to come away with it at the end.   Australia by 16.

By Mike Cooper (@RuckedOver)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images