Well, hands up who saw this situation arising? I mean, I know this was the Group of Death and all that, and one of the big cheeses would have to drop out, but common consensus was that Wales vs Australia would be the ultimate pressure game – with qualification and elimination as the stakes.
Instead, courtesy of memorable wins over the hosts, both sides can go into this one pretty happy – but not too happy, mind… There’s still the small matter of deciding who will top the group.
WALES
Warren Gatland has made several changes to the side that dispatched Fiji, some enforced – as appears to be the norm for the Welsh these days – and some tactical. The one that catches the eye straight away in the pack is the selection of Justin Tipuric in place of Dan Lydiate, in a clear attempt to counter the ‘double-openside’ threat offered by Australia – even if Michael Hooper is unavailable for this one.
Tipuric and Warburton have proven themselves as a potent double team over the ball before – against England in 2013 being the prime example – and, despite not having as catchy a name as Cheika’s flankers (‘Warburic’ doesn’t quite compare to ‘Pooper’) it’s a clear statement of intent that quick ball will be the order of the day.
And you can understand why, when you cast your eyes down the backline. In meanders George North off his wing to offer raw power and pace in the midfield – not that it needed it, considering he’s partnering the good doctor Jamie Roberts – and, although his positional play at 13 is not always up to scratch, it’s a great chance to get him into the game more than he has so far.
There are more changes out wide, too, as Alex Cuthbert is brought onto one wing – where he will hope to rediscover his long-forgotten form – with Liam Williams returning from concussion to offer his brand of manic enthusiasm on the other flank. The 15 shirt is filled by late call-up and Kiwi import Gareth Anscombe, who is preferred to the inexperienced Matthew Morgan, to complete a dangerous back three.
The only other changes see the excellently named Samson Lee take Tomas Francis’ spot at tighthead and Paul James called onto the loosehead in an effort to stabilise a Welsh scrum that has looked more wobbly than Adam Jones following a Christmas dinner.
One to watch: Justin Tipuric
Don’t get me wrong, Dan Biggar’s ability to boot everything within 50 metres of the sticks will be critical, but Tipuric has been picked to do a job against the breakdown master that is David Pocock and his young padawan, Sean McMahon. McMahon doesn’t have the experience or relentless energy of Hooper, but he is another who is very strong over the ball and Gatland will be looking at Tipuric’s speed as a key factor to securing quick ball for his side and preventing turnovers. If the Ospreys man can regularly beat the men in gold to the breakdown, then Wales will have a foothold in this game.
AUSTRALIA
Michael Chieka is forced into making two changes from last Saturday’s masterclass, which was a joy to watch despite ruining my whole bloody year.
With Michael Hooper slapped with a week’s ban after a dangerous ruck clear-out on Mike Brown, 21-year-old Sean McMahon steps into the seven shirt for the crunch game to determine who will top the group. He make lack experience, but there’s no shortage of talent or confidence there, having been named the Australian rookie of the year – which, considering the competition, is no mean feat.
As described above, he’s a different type of openside to Hooper – he’s slightly more comfortable in the tight rather than the midfield – but he’s still a dead weight over the ball and that means that the Aussie backrow retains the slightly unbalanced but lethal ball-snaffling set up that has worked so well for them thus far.
The tight five – which outplayed their much-fancied English counterparts – gets another crack at a shaky Welsh pack, whilst Will Genia and the sublime Bernard Foley will be looking to work in tandem as well as they did last week. In the outside backs, the bad news for Wales is that Israel Folau has shrugged off an ankle complaint to add menace to an experienced Wallaby back three that now includes Drew Mitchell, who replaces the injured Rob Horne. A bloke with 11 World Cup tries to his name. Not a bad replacement.
One to watch: Sekope Kepu
I know, I’m so unsexy, talking about an Australian prop (somebody has to) when I could talk about Pocock, Foley or Folau – but their ability and importance is so well known, they need no introduction. Instead, Kepu is a man that Cheika will be looking to to provide the platform from which to unleash the danger men out wide. He’ll be packing down opposite Paul James, who has been brought in to stabilise a scrum that has been stuck in reverse, and given how he marmalised Joe Marler last week, the Waratahs prop will be licking his lips at the prospects of making a meal of another set piece.
PREDICTION
No, it’s not quite life or death – thanks to England’s contribution to the tournament – but there’s still a hell of a lot riding on this. Let’s be honest, nobody wants to face a resurgent South African side in the quarter finals. There’s bags of running talent on both sides here so we could be in for a cracker but, whilst Wales have ground their way to their wins, the Aussies were so fluid, dominant and impressive in every facet last week that I’m struggling to see anything other than a Wallaby win. Australia by 10.
By Mike Cooper (@RuckedOver)
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
Tipurton?
Warburic
Good write up. I think you’ve read it well. All us Aussies are hoping our boys can provide consistency. Should be a bloody fast match.
Maybe Folau needs to be worried of Wales rather than vice-versa ;) http://cdn1.rugbydump.com/posts/george-north-folau-carry.jpg
Wales by 5 for no reason other than a fans blind optimism.
With my Rugby brain in gear I have to agree with you analyzation and the rationale in coming up with Australia winning by 10. However this Welsh team (Squad) has confounded the expectation place on them even before the RWC started. I am recorded on Scrum V after the Uruguay match openly stating that after the Welsh performance that logically England would beat Wales at Twickenham, gut was saying Wales but could see it happing. This Saturday the Aussies are starting as favourites but my gut is telling a Welsh win by 8.
….and with the rest of my brain in gear, I point out respectfully that ‘analyzation’ is not a word, ‘analysis’ is ;)
The two best managers in the RWC, Gats just has the edge so Wales by a whisker.
A change of scenery might do us good as well after 7 years of hurt at the MS.
Gonna back my lads. Wales by 7 more likely closer to 3 but 7 feels right
Wales by 1.
Given that we are in the 1/4 final regardless of this result I shall just be thankful for that fact alone.
From the 2014 6n onwards I and my rugby circle genuinely expected us to go out in the pool stages and that has not happened. Amen to that.
We would all prefer Scotland/Japan to the Boks as it would give the Welsh team a real chance of making the semis and maybe even the final.
HOWEVER and there is always a HOWEVER….whatever stage we exit from at RWC 2015 we all know that:
1: We got further than the hosts who somehow convinced themselves they were going to win the thing.
2: We beat the English at Snickers in their own tournament despite being 10pts down on more than one occasion in the game.
3: Boy oh boy doesn’t Robshaw now ‘look like a c+ck of all c+cks’ as Hitler/youtube says so amusingly.
4:The feeling of utter joy for 1-3 alone means everything else that takes place is just a bonus.
5: England now face another post RWC review/investigation/inquisition/meltdown for the 2nd RWC running. Recrimination….recrimination…… recrimination Mr Baldrick???
Every Welsh person I know would have more than accepted getting out of the group alone b 4 this tournament began and especially after the O2 Pygmies ‘who always back themselves at home’ got a bonus point win over Fiji.
Do us all a favor and pipe down.
Ah to be fair we have to take it all the chin. They beat us fair and square and have earned the right to crow on a bit (even if some of it does sound a tad resentful). The great thing is with this game though is that things will always turn around in 1/2 years, especially in the northern hemisphere – Wales in 07, out in the group stages, then a Grand Slam in 08. I’m personally just taking a mental note of all the abuse being thrown at the English, smiling and nodding and then, when it does (eventually) turn around, I am going to crow my face off. No-one can complain about the ‘arrogant English’ after some of the stuff I’ve seen thrown around!
Errrr…sorry Mike but I’m puzzled; why are you banging on about 6N, when there’s a World Cup happening right now? February’s the time for that, when Wales return to the scene of recent triumphs (i.e. Twickers!).
Errr… Not sure if the phrase ‘Six Nations’ appears anywhere in my post, although the words ‘Grand Slam’ appears once – when talking about Wales!!
Wales by a score. For a change, I’d like to see Australia ahead with 10 minutes to go, only for us to snatch the win from them at the death.
Would love to predict a Wales win but have to be realistic, even without Hooper the Aussies have a very good 23 and they have probably played the best rugby on anyone in this WC.
If Wales can bring their ‘A’ game then I think it will be very close but unless the Scrum is 75% better than it has been I cannot see they will get the platform to work off.
Another factor is Liam Williams who cannot be 100% after so little rugby in the past six months & Anscombe, who, although a fine player, has not really been tested at this level.
Aussies by 8 for me….. though I hope I’m eating my words tomorrow night …
Australia by 25. Welsh pack on rollerskates. Honestly won win against England & Wales are world beaters!
Oh Lord no Marmaduke. Beating England is the easy part so nobody thinks it says anything about us….
Now however we are on to the big boys stuff…
That’s your problem – you don’t beat the big boys.
Aye. I see your point. It was only England.
including Ireland i believe its 4 on the bonk , with a scratch side btw , so we’ve done ourselves proud in a world cup geared to get england thru to the QF , I say that because what other reason would this game be at twickers when our easier games were in cardiff ? ,…the same day as Wales have their biggest game in half a century in soccer , could it be that England thought they would already be through by now ? the whole competition/draw was a joke to have those 3 teams in the same group, luckily for wal/oz the joke was on england , you had the media on you side {thank god i never had any accidents during the WC , i would prob have English blood in me if i did!} the celts are small ppl by nature , how we beat an england side the size of houses is a huge achievement , even the rose was bigger than Alun Wyn ffs !, but as we all know,…..the bigger they are the harder they fall , ….regards the score { i predicted oz to bt eng by 17 } i think around the same for oz again , Its hard to see a Welsh second team winning by more than 1-2 pts if we get a lucky break , mind you IF wales do ok @ scrumtime we could just do it , ….we always back ouselves away ! lol
Aussies by 14 followed by Boks by 21
Col tipping Wales to lose again. Happy days :-). The win for Wales must now be in the bag.
Can’t see past an Aussie win I’m afraid. They were pretty immaculate in every facet of the game against us apart from the lineout where Parling managed to pinch quite a few. Who knows; with Charteris on the field and Wales already beating England by minimising the amount of scrums (a serious Aussie strength now), anything is possible as long as Biggar continues as he is.
Biggar vs Foley will be worth the admission alone, easily the two best 10s of the tourney.
As a Welshman and a lover of the game my heart says Wales but reality hits me and says the Aussies and regardless of the score tomorrow we’ve done well to get to the quarter finals however something is telling me that there might just be a Welsh win I hope so
My prediction is that Wales loose and Australia go on to win the WC. England are out but I am right behind the remaining home nations and I will relish a win by any of them. Realistically I don’t think Wales or Scotland have much more in the tank and Ireland’s momentum has subsided. If this is the WC for the ABs to lose, lose I think they shall ( they have not played well enough yet and when they meet a side that they have to play well against to win, I think their lack of intense rehearsal will tell a story) for there are only two teams I see as gaining momentum in this competition Australia and South Africa.
France may cause an upset otherwise I agree Sharpy. France are the only NH team to have the game to get there but you never know which France will turn up. NZ were very error prone tonight but as the breakdown law does not apply to them still won by 38 points, 2 point off my prediction Brighty please take note, crap kick from Carter cost me a bonus point !!!!
Just can’t see Wales getting the Aussie monkey off their back. You look at the two performances against England and the Aussies were streets ahead. Still think it will be close. One or two scores.
Every side wearing a red jersey at Twickenham in RWC 2015 has won. England v Fiji , France v Italy and Wales v England. So based on that fact alone Wales by 1 , it also means we win the Cup unless we decide to wear the alternative kit when no other team we play wears red as first choice !! Cmon Wales
Wartip
Easily the best option
sounds like the nuclear option. Good choice.
Wales struggled against England for 70%of game.England lost the game really and Australia outclassed England.Alot of English rooting for Wales pity it doesn’t happen other way round
If this game was Australia win and England go through a lot of people would be supporting Aus don’t kid yourself.
I back all home nations but when it comes Wales v England I back England everyday twice on msdays.
Whether we struggled for 70% of the game is irrelevant we won in the end and that is what matters today if were beaten for 79minutes so long as we lead at the final whistle we win. It’s all about closing
Back Wales every time lol hate using my phone can’t see where I’m at lol
It’s tough to be Welsh today. 15 vs 13 for 10 minutes give or take. Must give it to the Aussies, tough as nails.I have a belief that every team has one game in the WC that will be talked about for aeons. Wales had theirs at Twickenham vs England, Japan had theirs vs the ‘Boks, Aus had their one yesterday. SA, NZ, Ireland and France have not had theirs yet. Still to come.