England welcome Italy to Twickenham in round two of the Six Nations on the back of a fine win away in Cardiff on the opening weekend. While they should canter to a win – they haven’t lost to Italy since the Azurri joined the competition to make it the Six Nations – they will need to put in a good performance to match.
Last year they loosened the shackles in Rome to run in 50 points, and while nobody will be expecting that again they will need to show similar endeavour with ball in hand. Italy, for their part, are on a hiding to nothing – they showed nothing against Ireland in Rome to suggest they can come close to competing this weekend.
England
For the first time since this exact phase last year, England stick with the same matchday 23 two weeks in a row. The back-row, which won so many plaudits in Cardiff, of Haskell, Robshaw and Vunipola get another crack, while in front of them Dave Attwood and George Kruis continue a power-packed engine room duo.
Ben Youngs and George Ford direct matters again from the half-backs, and will look to release the burgeoning centre partnership of Luther Burrell and Jonathan Joseph who looked lively against Wales. They have a chance to lock those shirts down with another good performance, and with competition for places in the midfield likely to heat up as the tournament progresses, they certainly need to.
England will hope to get Jonny May onto the ball more often this week, who lines up in the back three again with Anthony Watson and Mike Brown. The Gloucester winger is devastatingly quick when he gets a bit of space, but it was a commodity that was sorely lacking for him in Cardiff.
Italy
Italy make a number of changes from the side that went down to Ireland with a whimper in round one. Matias Aguero, who was given a surprisingly rough ride by Mike Ross in the scrum, is benched for Alberto de Marchi, while old stager Marco Bortolami brings plenty of experience into the engine room. There’s more where that came from in the back-row, as Mauro Bergamasco takes Alessandro Zanni’s place.
There’s a big blow in the backs with livewire Michele Campagnaro ruled out; Andrea Masi moves to centre, Luke McLean drops to fullback and Giovambattista Venditti joins on the wing. There is talent amongst the backs, but can they be utilised properly?
The continued entrusting of the play-making duties to 28 year-old Kiwi Kelly Haimona feels like a backwards step, particularly with a young talent like Tommaso Allan waiting in the wings. Haimona has not showed much to suggest he is anything other than a stop-gap in the ten shirt – although what exactly he’s a stop-gap for, it’s tough to say. He will not cause the English defence many problems.
All eyes on
It will be intriguing to watch the performance of young George Kruis in England’s engine room. He has taken to international rugby like the proverbial duck to water, after a nasty bout of injuries to those players ahead of him in the pecking order. And that lingering feeling that he is just keeping the shirt warm is exactly why he will remain such a point of fascination. At some point the likes of Launchbury, Lawes and Parling will return from injury and therefore if he is to keep his place, he has to play out of his skin while he can. It seems to have been spurring him on to good things so far – and he was brutally physical against Wales last week – so expect another good performance on Saturday.
Fans of the Aviva Premiership will know that Andrea Masi is an immensely talented player. He has impressed in a Wasps back-line that has been amongst the most exciting to watch this season, and Italy desperately need him to bring some of that devil to their own back-line – one that has looked thoroughly lacklustre in recent times. He was wasted somewhat at fullback last week, and wearing the 12 shirt at Twickenham he can expect to see plenty of ball from Kelly Haimona.
Prediction
As much as everyone wants Italy to be a competitive side and bring something more than a wooden spoon contender to the Six Nations, they have seriously regressed in the last couple of years. The days of them conquering Ireland and France for a fourth-placed finish seem like a separate age, not two years ago. And the strange thing is, the bulk of the players that were around then, still are now. But going on the way they played last week, they don’t have a hope at Twickenham.
England have their tails up after a hugely impressive win in Wales. The only thing that might derail them is complacency, but you sense that is not something that will be allowed to creep in under Lancaster. They will look to open the game up, but must make sure that they win it first. They have the pack to put the squeeze on the Italians early on, so there is absolutely no reason why they shouldn’t make it 21 wins in a row over their opponents this weekend. England by 25.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
One reply on “Six Nations 2015: England vs Italy Prediction”
Agree with your one to watch for England. I don’t think Italy have enough to beat us, so it will be interesting to look at individuals for England.
Along with Kruis (Parling and Lawes may be fit for the Ireland game, so he’ll need to nail his shirt down with a dominant performance against Italy), I’d say there is also a bit of a spotlight on Burrell. There isn’t too long to get the centres right, and he didn’t shine as brightly as some others in the game against Wales. With Twelvetrees looking handy as he came on and Barritt returning to fitness (and Tuilagi possibly coming back later in the tournament as well), I think a poor showing from Burrell against Italy and Lancaster may look to shuffle his pack slightly.
It will be an interesting game though. I think we may see some early substitutions again if we’re chasing a big score, as we have some real game-breakers on the bench. Mako Vunipola and Tom Youngs offer an explosive carrying game that I would say the starters lack, and Tom Croft can exploit any space in the wide channels. Cipriani too is one that can come on with a view to scoring tries in the latter stages of a game. However, Lancaster’s challenge will be not trying to do too much with his substitutions and hurting England’s momentum.