Six Nations 2015: France vs Scotland Prediction

For Scotland, this is a match that seems as much eminently winnable as it does an occasion for the receipt of a real tonking. The French played with genuine verve in defeating Australia in November, but lost to Argentina, a team the Scots put away with some ease. The Six Nations provides pressures of a considerably different nature, and both of these teams have had some awful times in the competition in the last few years.

France have finished 4th, 6th, and 4th in since 2012, Scotland, 6th, 3rd and 5th. The latter have undoubtedly lost games they should have won, incapable of holding on to dominant positions, incapable of staying in games during crucial periods of play. France, in contrast, have misjudged the ambition required and misapplied the talents at their disposal. All this makes for an unpredictable state of affairs.

France

On paper, this looks like a very good French side. The back-line is laced with attacking threats, and is not weaker for the inclusion of foreign imports Rory Kockott and Scott Spedding at scrum-half and full back respectively. The former was always lively in his Super Rugby days, and would surely now be a Springbok cap had he stayed in South Africa. At Castres, his all-action style has carried the club to two Top 14 finals in two seasons, while Spedding has been a stand out performer in the Top 14 for a number of seasons.

Camille Lopez plays with an enviable fluidity, and possesses a short and long range kicking game which will pull the Scottish back three all over the pitch. Stuart Hogg’s fielding of the high ball is the weakest part of his game, and Lopez will undoubtedly look to exploit this for easy metres through his precision. Yoann Huget and Teddy Thomas have both had their disciplinary issues, but are sublime natural talents who are difficult to pin down.

Up front, the French pack looks particularly formidable, if a little immobile. 31 year old Toulon prop Alexandre Menini has taken the long route to the top, having spent most of his career in the second tier of French rugby. Indeed, he and his front-row contemporaries will almost certainly target the Scottish scrums as an area of weakness and a source of cheap points. Thierry Dusautoir, a rare constant in an ever-changing side, will knock over Scottish ball-carriers with customary ease, and Yoann Maestri is a belligerent force at lock.

Scotland

This is a refreshingly honest Scotland selection, in the sense that it does not try to master an all-court game when the players’ natural abilities do not support such a thing. It is a team built on the identifiable strengths of its parts, which draws its playing style towards the intelligent application of dynamism and disruption, and away from attritional attempts to pitch unwinnable battles based on brute strength.

With injuries ruling out a number of alternative options, there were few surprises in the team named. The Gray brothers were an automatic selection in the second row, Jonny carrying effectively in the tight and Richie gaining metres in the wider channels. Rob Harley is a Cotter favourite on the blind-side flank with some justification, providing an influential dose of disruption and nuisance, as well as a tackling technique which stops opponents in their tracks. The French are irresistible when their ball carriers gain easy metres, and Harley’s defence will accordingly be a significant asset.

Blair Cowan is a physical fetcher at open-side, and Johnnie Beattie balances the back-row with a mix of ball-carrying and skilful link play, despite being left out of the original squad. Overall, there is enough mobility to move the chunkier French forwards around the pitch.

With Sean Maitland and Matt Scott injured, the backline picked itself. Scotland will hope for a dry evening, and Greig Laidlaw, sometimes guilty of trying to over-manage games, will have to provide enough ball to those outside him without ceding the French set piece possession in the Scottish 22. All three of Scotland’s substitute backs have the ability to alter the team’s style.

All Eyes On

The midfield, featuring assorted bludgeons and rapiers. The contest between Alec Dunbar and Wesley Fofana is well-matched, both players who pick good lines. Dunbar’s surging style is more muscular, Fofana picking the cleaner angles.

Mark Bennett against Mathieu Bastareaud is a clash of agility against bulldozing strength. If given the ball in space, one fancies Bennett might make the rotund Bastareaud look foolish through his sharp footwork. Equally, Bastareaud is capable of trampling underfoot the diminutive Scottish centre along with several of his teammates. The Scottish pairing at least have the benefits of playing together for Glasgow along with Finn Russell, although Fofana’s understanding with Clermont team-mate Lopez should also be finely tuned.

Prediction

Two years ago, Scotland led 6-0 at half-time in this fixture before succumbing to France’s power in both set-piece and loose play. They also failed to show enough ambition with the ball until it was too late. On Saturday, the Scots’ ability to manage the scrum throughout the game will again be important. Additionally, they need to find a way to stop the French gaining momentum, chopping down ball-carriers early and reorganising quickly, a matter of relentless concentration as much as honest commitment.

If they can achieve this, they will have time and space in attack, the French defensive press being somewhat softer than other leading nations. For France, the challenge is to turn up to this fixture in a frame of mind, and with a game plan, that can do justice to their undoubted talents.

It is difficult to see a Scotland win here, but having written in the tournament preview about the dangers of undue optimism, this contributor cannot help but feel that Vern Cotter may just have picked a Scotland side unburdened by what has appeared to be an institutionalised losing mentality in the Six Nations. What price the Scots to take a half-time lead, weather a second half storm, and sneak over the line to record a first win in Paris since 1999? Scotland by 2.

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images