Six Nations 2015: Ireland vs France Prediction

Both Ireland and France have a point to prove in Dublin this weekend. Ireland may well have won last week in Rome, but they stuttered throughout the match against Italy and will want to show this time why they were pre-tournament favourites.

On a similar note, France also won last week but they used roughly eight different game plans over the course of the 80 minutes, with none of them working. They will want to prove in Ireland that they still have the Gallic, off-the-cuff flair of old, but also make sure they keep the grittiness that saw them grind out the win against Scotland.

Ireland

The men in green welcome back the big guns who have been struggling for fitness through injury recently. Loosehead Cian Healy comes onto the bench, while in the back-row Jamie Heaslip pushes Jordi Murphy onto the bench. Tommy O’Donnell finds himself highly unlucky to drop out of the entire 23 altogether, as does Ian Keatley; Lions Sean O’Brien and Johnny Sexton return to push them out.

The rest of the team stays the same as the Italy game. Luke McGrath, Rory Best and Mike Ross start in the front row, supported by Paul O’Connell and Devin Toner in the engine room. Peter O’Mahony keeps his place on the blindside. Conor Murray remains at nine to rekindle his highly effective partnership with Sexton. Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne will hope to have more of an impact from the midfield, and provide Simon Zebo and Tommy Bowe with more possession on the wings. Rob Kearney, as ever, will sweep everything up at fullback.

France

Philippe Saint-Andre makes the thoroughly un-French move of only making one change, despite France’s failure to produce much in attack Scotland. Alexandre Menini is injured so Eddy Ben Arous takes his place at loosehead, in an enforced change.

The rest of the front-row consists of Guilhem Guirado and Rabah Slimani, who struggled last week in the scrums and made little account of themselves in the loose. Pascal Papé and Yoann Maestri will be key carriers and lineout men like last week, and fortunately for French supporters the back-row of Bernard Le Roux, Thierry Dusautoir, and Damien Chouly remains after their impressive performance.

Rory Kockott and Camille Lopez look like a half-back partnership that the management are keen to back, so keep their places, while Wesley Fofana and Mathieu Bastareaud, both surprisingly quiet against Scotland, will be hoping to have more of an impact this week. Yoann Huget and Teddy Thomas provide plenty of devil as the starting wingers, and Scott ‘The Spade’ Spedding™ will marshal at the back.

All Eyes On

I don’t know whether it was the emotional pre-game interview or the fact that you just can’t miss him on a rugby field, but Mathieu Bastareaud has been the name on many people’s lips this week. He’s a bulldozer with ball in hand and, believe it or not, can has even been known to hit a handy drop goal (see below), but he is also a man that Ireland will be looking to target on Saturday. He’s slow to turn and as Mark Bennett showed last week, easily stepped – but they will need to ensure they don’t run straight down his channel.

Video credit: EaglesXVrugby

For Ireland, prodigal son and one half of the best half-back combo in the world, Johnny Sexton returns. They look a completely different team without him at the helm and he will be looking to ignite the exciting Irish backline and return to Paris with bragging rights over his teammates. He is also vital to the way they set up tactically – Schmidt’s game-plan is based on intelligent kicking, and there are few better out of hand than the Racing Métro fly-half.

Prediction

It all depends which France team turns up. Such a cliché, but for a reason. In theory, Ireland will hammer them in the set pieces and France will just breakdown if it’s one-way traffic after 15 minutes. If they rely on Lopez too much, then the only way they’ll get on the scoreboard is through penalties, and that won’t be enough against an Ireland side who will be much more free-flowing than last week with plenty of their bigger names returning. Ireland by 14.

By Calum Gillon (@C_Gillon)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images