After a crushing defeat in Cardiff on the opening night, Wales have heaved themselves back into contention for the title with some dogged defence, aerial assertiveness and the reliable right boot of Leigh Halfpenny.
But their resurgence will count for nothing, unless they can score enough points to post a superior difference for England and Ireland to chase. Italy have not beaten Wales since 2007 and they are unlikely to fare any better against an in-form Welsh outfit.
The hosts are used to playing their final Six Nations match purely for pride, but on Saturday they will be desperate to produce a performance worthy of redemption, after a dire display against France.
Italy
Every ounce of quality and composure they showed at Murrayfield was washed away in the Roman rain last Sunday, but if nothing else, the Italians have always been resilient.
Italy know that they need to improve in defence, but they are also aware that any more aimless kicking will cost them dearly, as the Welsh back three are not only authoritative in the air, they also have also recently developed a dangerous counter attacking game.
Jacques Brunel has high hopes for Kelly Haimona, but his teammates do not have a great deal of trust in their fly half. Italy are capable of playing an expansive game, but if things start to go wrong they will revert back to the 10-man brand of rugby they are most comfortable with.
Sergio Parisse will be sorely missed but the return of Martin Castrogiovanni and Mauro Bergamasco will bolster the Italian pack. The Azzurri forwards’ menacing maul was dismantled by France, but it remains their most potent attacking threat.
When Italy were last at the Millennium Stadium, they were expecting the Welsh defence to be belligerent at the breakdown, so Eduardo Gori used a collection of acute chips to keep Wales’ forwards scurrying backwards instead of smashing into rucks. Expect Italy to deploy similar tactics on Saturday.
Wales
The Welsh currently sit in third place, joint on points with England and Ireland, but with an inferior points difference. They will have to approach their Six Nations showdown with more attacking intent than a trailing Barbarians team.
Warren Gatland has made two-injury enforced changes to the side that battled past Ireland last Sunday. Rob Evans and Aaron Jarvis are set to start in the front row, in the absence of Samson Lee (achilles) and Gethin Jenkins (hamstring).
The duo will be part of a pack that will be tasked with confronting Italy’s rolling maul. Wales seriously struggled against the green machine last weekend and they know that if they want to thwart the Italian maul, they will have to sack it at speed or break it up with brute force, as Les Bleus did.
Wales have always relished close-quarter contests, but if they want pile on the points in Rome, they will need to attack Italy out wide, where the blue wall is weakest. Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar must ensure that Wales avoid being dragged into an arm wrestle, by supplying the Welsh backs with swift service.
All eyes on
Andrea Masi was spared a bludgeoning from Mathieu Bastareaud last Sunday, as the French wrecking ball was confided to the bench until the 70th minute, but the Wasps centre must now prepare himself for the blunt-force trauma that comes with tackling Jamie Roberts.
If Wales want to work it wide then they will use Roberts to get them over the gain line, but he will have to bully his way through a hugely physical Masi. After a defiant defensive display against France, the Italian will not shy away from the imposing presence of Roberts.
Prediction
Wales have not won by more than a margin of seven in this year’s tournament but they are well aware that another close win will most likely land them a third-place finish. So Gatland’s side will start this match in the same way they did against France, with plenty of pace, purpose and width.
The visitors will come flying out of the blocks and look to work the ball wide and use their wingers to exploit the outside channels. Wales may not establish a commanding lead early on, but if they can set a high tempo in the opening stages and pull the Italian pack around the pitch, the hosts will tire in the last 20 minutes, as they did against Ireland and England.
Obviously Italy will not just roll over. They will look to slow the surging Welsh down by dragging them into an attritional dogfight. However, with more rain forecast, they will need to find a way of grasping the greasy ball to stand any chance of scoring.
The visitors have not come this far to stumble at the Stadio Olimpico and they still have everything to play for. Wales by 25.
By Nathan Hyde (@NathanHyde2)
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
10 replies on “Six Nations 2015: Italy vs Wales Prediction”
No Parisse?
Wales’ task just became a little easier
I disagree, i think they will aim for a quick start and probably get an early try; but i dont think the game will be slowed down into a dog fight until the 2nd half and even then i think that will be short lived. Parisse out to me really dent’s any fear I had of not attaining the 25+ bracket.
Despite the records and history that is required to be broken my only fear that wales won’t win the 6nations rests on the other 2 games of the weekend, i can’t look behind a v.big margin in this game. – I don’t expect them to whitewash like France did but I do think any italian score will be marginal at best no more than 7pts for them. My eyes are looking at more like the Wales v Scotland 51-3 – yes this may seem unrealistic and with a glint of welsh hope – i accept that :p
You keep mentioning that Scotland game, don’t forget that the majority of the match was against 14 men.
I dont think i have kept mentioned that individual game, but the last 2 final games of the 6nations were bigger margins than expected. the scotland game and the england game. These are rare and v.much unexpected but it just (atleast for me) goes to show that it can occur. I feel Italy are the weakest side regardless of whether they aren’t bottom this year, shown by how many points they are losing by. If as with the last 2 wales win by unexpectedly large margins, the 20-25pt people expect this weekend could but much greater.
Added to that Parisse who again in my eyes is the key part to Italy putting up a good fight leads me to feel its more possible – against essentially making Italy a 14man team because of how important I feel he is to the squad.
I don’t mean this as disrespectful to the Italians, but they aren’t at the level of other 6nations sides, as is evident in the regular 0 or 1 win each year, down the line this may change but for now they rely heavily on one or two players within the team and without them they tend to crumble.
Not at the level of the other 6N teams? Regular 0 or 1 wins? Rely heavily on one or two players? Sounds like Scotland…. Think the degrading of the Italians compared to how Scotland always seem to get away with “gallant losers” is a bit unfair.
Im thinking a 30+ point margin with Italy scoring about 10 and Wales in the low 40’s.
Italy will know Wales need the points so will try to frustrate them in the first 20 hoping that the games opens up for them later on. Narrow 5 point lead for Wales at halftime however Wales will pull away in the final 20 with a couple of quick scores to set a points target for England and Ireland to beat
I hope I’m wrong but I don’t believe the Welsh scrum, missing their 1st choice props will be strong enough to give Wales the platform they will need to amass a huge score, Castro & Berga being back will give Italy the edge I fear. Having said that, I do think that Wales will win comfortably bringing on TIps, G Davies & Williams to hopefully rack up some points against a tiring & hopefully despondent Italy ( if they are well behind by then ). Parisse’ obviously is a big loss for them but I would be happy to have him playing if we still had our two props …
Italy by 20 – @ least! Only kidding. Wales should be too strong & have too much out wide, regardless of their scrum. Afterall they beat Ireland, albeit ‘with a little help from their friend’, Barnes @ the death & with c. 1/3 poss & terr! But that was last week.
And mind you, Wales won’t want to lose too many more props with 1 eye on the WC horizon. If I were Gatland I’d buy Adam an expensive, slap up dinner, tell Jones that he (Gats) can be a mite hasty @ times & talk about AJ’s Int’al future – yesterday!
Fr put 29 on Italy… but WITH a scrum. More difficult to predict a scoreline this time, with Wales’ rookie scrum, but still Wales by 15? They need more pts than that, but don’t see Italy rolling by too much @ home.
Well in the 1st 1/2 anyway!
Italy have preformed well this year beating Scotland and putting up a brave performance against England. I think they will get around 10 points in this game and can win if they get a good start. However I still think this will be a rout and Wales will win by at least 20. Maybe in the area of 9 – 26? If Wales lose to Italy then Ireland will lose to Scotland so either way I back Wales to get second place.