Six Nations 2015: Scotland team preview

Over the course of the week, we’ll be previewing each Six Nations side, looking at their strengths and weaknesses and giving a prediction of where we think they’ll finish. First up, it’s Scotland.

Strengths

To point to Scotland’s midfield as its strength is to venture into pastures untrodden for some time. Quite simply, Scotland have acquired a lively set of backs from 9-15 for the first time since 1999. In the centres – fitness permitting – Alex Dunbar will be partnered by either Matt Scott at 12 or Mark Bennett at 13. In case of injury, Pete Horne is a skilful option who adds significant ball-playing ability.

This quartet constitutes greater strength in depth in midfield than Scotland have had for some time. Dunbar’s performances in the Pro 12 and Champions Cup have been tremendous, and as a unit the Glasgow midfield tore apart the much hyped English trio of Ford, Eastmond, and Joseph at Scotstoun in October, and also played with no little panache at the Recreation Ground in January.

Out wide, Tommy Seymour’s pace, strength and enthusiasm should assure him a place on one wing with Sean Maitland or Tim Visser on the other depending on injury. Stuart Hogg provides a counter-attacking threat as long as he maintains enough confidence in his support arriving to run the ball back. Greig Laidlaw will take on captaincy and goal-kicking, both activities in which he displays valuable competence.

In the pack, the pairing of the Gray brothers in the second row produces both good PR material and concrete benefits on the pitch in the form of their unexpected try-scoring. In the front row, Fraser Brown is one to watch coming off the bench at hooker, having drawn much praise for his performance as a stand-in flanker in Glasgow’s last match with Bath.

Weaknesses

Traditionally an area of strength, the Scottish back row selection has raised a few eyebrows. The main talking point is the choice of New Zealand-born flanker Hugh Blake at the expense of John Barclay, Kelly Brown and (initially) Johnnie Beattie. Barclay, having made his Scotland debut aged 20, has a status approaching that of national treasure and has been outstanding for Llanelli this season. Kelly Brown is a former Scotland captain and has long been a permanent fixture in the national set up.

His performances for the now defunct Borders region stick in the memory as nothing short of heroic, and more pertinently, he consistently holds down a starting place in a Saracens team which, for the last five years, has been one of the best in Europe. There are few Scotland players with similar credentials. Will the loss of players with such experience and stature hinder Scotland’s chances? The omission of Beattie, aside from his ball-carrying, seemed to ignore both the injury to Adam Ashe and the fact that Dave Denton is these days far more comfortable at blind-side than number 8.

Controversy aside, the Scotland pack is not one that will steam roller many opponents, and in particular may find the going tough in the set piece away to France and England and at home to Wales. However, it is, in a sense, a pragmatic selection – Scotland have rarely possessed a pack in the professional era that physically dominated opponent’s to any real effect. The current selection is based on providing quick ball for the backs, disrupting opposition play, and aiding the move towards what Cotter believes is an identifiably Scottish style of play.

Key Objective before World Cup: find/settle on a front row that can hold its own against the best at scrum time, and give an exciting back-line a platform to play from.

Player to watch: Finn Russell

In Russell, Scotland finally have a stand-off with a balance of pace, vision, and the ability to kick the ball a fair distance off his right foot. What’s more, Russell attacks the defensive line with real intent and tackles above his weight, and his small stature belies a certain ruggedness. His performances in the last year for Glasgow and Scotland have caused many to burden him with hopelessly unrealistic expectations raised the hopes of many. In the Six Nations, he will undoubtedly have less time on the ball, although he proved against the All Blacks and Argentina that he can execute his tactical kicking game under pressure.

Last season: 5th

2014 was an odd tournament for the Scots. Comfortably beaten by Ireland, they were embarrassed at home by England, before recovering to snatch victory in Rome with a last minute drop goal from Duncan Weir. The good work was then thoroughly undone against France.

Having scored two first half tries, a dominant Scotland conspired to shoot themselves in the foot in comically inept fashion, Yoann Huget intercepting a long miss pass to run 80 metres and score, before a 78th minute penalty in front of the posts gave France a two point victory. The final match was a miserable affair, the Scots conceding 51 points to a rampant Wales after Stuart Hogg had been sent off for foul play.

Prediction

January is most frequently characterised as a month of abstinence, consequent misery, and stark, realistic appraisal of one’s condition. Not so in rugby circles north of the border, where innocence prevails over experience and players, supporters, and the media endure a yearly affliction of principally groundless optimism. The final whistle had scarcely pierced the air at Rugby Park when Blair Cowan proclaimed that Scotland ‘could win the Six Nations’, and thus joined the company of Jim Hamilton (2014), Matt Scott (2013), Sean Lamont (2012) as the cause of a series of nauseatingly upbeat press articles.

In truth, this autumn was a genuinely good one when compared with recent standards. The hapless Pumas were convincingly dispatched, despite Scotland playing the last 10 minutes as if it were a late afternoon fixture at the Portobello Beach 10s. In contrast to recent contests, the narrow loss to New Zealand was commendable, featuring, for good measure, a speculation-inducing ‘what-if’ moment as Greig Laidlaw’s customary right to left draw failed to materialise, his 70th minute penalty falling wide of the uprights.

Most pleasing was the number of tries scored and the general improvement in skill levels. However, winning Six Nations fixtures against teams of the quality of the Ireland and Wales, in addition to facing daunting away trips to Twickenham and Paris, is a tall order. Scotland’s pace of progress must outstrip that of the other nations to make up the shortfall. It is not just a question of quality of play, but of learning how to win games. Two from five, amidst positive competitive performances, would represent a good return. Predicted finish: 5th

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images