Six Nations 2015: Scotland vs Ireland Prediction

Ireland’s last visit to Murrayfield was a curious affair in which the away side scored only a single try despite making 350 metres with ball in hand through a number of first half line breaks. Scotland, through the kicking of Greig Laidlaw and the contrasting profligacy of Paddy Jackson, pulled themselves back into the match in twenty second half minutes and somehow held on to win. That fixture took place mid-championship in what was a disastrous season for Ireland and a misleadingly good one – in terms of results – for Scotland.

The circumstances of this Saturday’s match are wholly different. Both Championship and Wooden Spoon are at stake. England are Ireland’s most likely rivals, and with the French insipid, uninspiring, and increasingly at ease with mid-table finishes, Scotland away may well be the harder fixture. Behind England on points difference, the Irish have not scored many tries lately, although that is not to say that on a firm, wide track at Murrayfield against a hospitable Scottish defence they won’t fancy their chances.

In a season which has often offered Ireland as genuine big-hitters for this year’s World Cup, it would be unthinkable that they should only win three of five Six Nations matches. Scotland, however, urgently need to prove to themselves and a disenchanted public that they have not entirely forgotten how to win games during their fifteen year malaise.

Scotland

Torn apart in a ghastly first 20 against England, Scotland played with intent, accuracy, and creativity for the second, before submissively accepting what they seemed to consider their destiny after half time. No one could blame them for their surprise at being ahead, but they appeared to sit back.

The principal factor behind their encouraging 20 minute spell was simply that they stopped giving the ball back to England, and in particular stopped giving it back to an incisive England back three in acres of space. Secondly, Greig Laidlaw ran from the base of the ruck to create half-gaps for the forward runners. It is this running game that will be crucial against the Irish, fond of a momentum-sapping choke tackle. The Scottish forwards lack the raw power to carry effectively unless the nine can draw defenders in and create weaker shoulders.

In terms of changes, Adam Ashe returns to start for the first time since November, but in place of Rob Harley at blindside rather than Denton at number eight. Harley’s Six Nations has been quiet by his own standards, and Ashe brings a greater degree of athleticism and ball-carrying, the latter necessary in the wake of Alex Dunbar’s injury. While Alasdair Dickinson has coped relatively well with a serious of unappetising scrummaging assignments, the returning Ryan Grant has real pedigree in the tight and is an effective ball-playing prop. The backline remains the same, and should Bennett and Hogg get enough ball, there should be some entertainment at the very least.

Ireland

Ireland, in control of their first three matches, were hamstrung against Wales by a bad start, meaning they had to chase the game against a possessed Welsh defence. That Ireland were still well in it at the end is impressive, and more so when you consider other contributing factors – an off-colour Sexton, some counterintuitive refereeing from Wayne Barnes, and a frenzied home crowd. The accusation that this Ireland team and their recent style has been found out is off the mark.

At Murrayfield they will, however, be thankful not to have to face either Wales’ asphyxiating defensive press, or Barnes’ interpretation at the breakdown. The back-row of Heaslip, O’Brien and O’Mahony exerts a control on the floor that their Scottish counterparts will find difficult to match. With a different referee and the Scots’ lack of technical accuracy and/or cunning, there should be plenty of turnover ball and possession from penalties. Moreover, the Irish driving maul looked in fine condition in Cardiff, and this is another area of notorious weakness for their opponents on Saturday.

The Irish make two changes, with Cian Healy replacing Jack McGrath at loose head and Luke Fitzgerald, hampered by injuries since 2011, taking the place of Simon Zebo on the wing. The choice of Healy or McGrath is a real luxury. On Fitzgerald’s call-up, Joe Schmidt has said this week that Zebo was less than 100% fit, although it is also true that the Irish style of play in recent times has not allowed his undoubted talent the conditions in which to flourish. Fitzgerald, quick, skilful and solid enough to play regularly at 12 in his early days in the green jersey, will be exuberant on his return. It will be intriguing to see at what stage Ireland open up in search of the desired margin of victory. One also wonders if they have speculated as to what the required margin will be.

All Eyes On

Jared Payne has performed creditably but without showing his range of passing or the gliding outside break that has made him such an effective signing for Ulster, and which almost saw him gain a call up to the All Blacks while at the Auckland Blues. In good conditions, and with Ireland potentially seeking tries, it’s a day for Payne to make a telling impact.

Finn Russell is an excellent prospect and a undoubtedly natural crowd-pleaser. What has been absent in his game is the kind of assured decision-making and accurate execution which invariably characterises the performances of Sexton and Biggar. With national expectations of the team low, this is an opportunity to provide evidence of his progression from innocence to experience.

Prediction

In O’Mahony and O’Brien at the breakdown and the tactical kicking of Sexton and Murray, Ireland have all the experience and talent to stifle the enterprise of the Scottish attack. Playing to these strengths, however, may not provide them with the opportunity to win the tournament itself. Scotland have performed gamely if unsuccessfully this year. They have been competitive in each defeat, but these have surely been emotionally and physically draining. This is contest between two different kinds of desperation, and Ireland’s record in the last year tells you they are unlikely to accept failure. Ireland by 8.

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images