Six Nations 2015: Scotland vs Wales Prediction

Whichever team you support, there is nothing quite like a first round loss to inspire a desperate sense of foreboding come the following weekend. The optimism of the opening weekend’s blank slate fades, replaced by an unpalatable insecurity, for the stakes are now higher: a second round win provides not only redemption but a return to championship contention fuelled by adversity; a loss sees hopes slip by for another year.

Sunday’s match against Scotland is timely for the Welsh, but also has the potential to erase the memories of their defeat rather more quickly than is helpful. Timely, in the sense that this is a Scotland team who Wales can beat by playing to their current strengths; unhelpful, because this is exactly what is least valuable for this team’s medium term development.

For Scotland, this is a game which will define the championship and assess whether the defeats of the last ten years can be solved through new personnel alone. If they cannot win this weekend, the prospect of Scotland genuinely competing in this tournament in the next few years seem distant.

Scotland

Two well-known hindrances, one very much the product of the other, have hung in the air this week. The first is the reaction to narrow loss against a team the Scots were not expected to overcome. It is fair to say that the press and public indulge the team in such defeats, particularly, as last Saturday, when Scotland play with genuine enterprise as well as their habitual commitment. But when all platitudes have been printed, Scotland were still some distance from winning in Paris, and one hopes that the assessment of the reasons why has been rather more rigorous inside the Scotland camp than outside.

Secondly, following Wales’ defeat to England, there has been a hint of a suggestion that the Scots might be odds-on to win this one. Real expectation, for so long absent, does not sit well with the Scottish head, and Scotland’s darkest moments have often followed the first flickers of a dawn. Where Paris was effectively a free hit, the match at BT Murrayfield will test Scotland’s composure and physicality. Wales’ basics are better, the defensive press stiffer, and there will be an even greater strain on possession, with every breakdown desperately contested.

Blair Cowan will need to have one of the best games of his career if Scotland are to live off more than scraps, while Johnnie Beattie will have to carry fearlessly. Much has been written during the week about the potency of the Scottish backs, and this is no longer in doubt. What is, however, is the forwards’ ability to give them ball to work with throughout the 80 minutes. If they can, this will be a watershed victory for Scottish rugby, the realisation of two decades of a struggle to adjust to the professional game.

Wales

There was a peculiar helplessness about Wales’ capitulation to England last Friday evening. It was the helplessness of a team refusing to adapt to a changing environment, refusing to accept the defeat of its principles rather than physical resources.

At times, it appeared that all that was required to nullify the Welsh attack was a sturdy head-on tackle eight metres either side of the previous breakdown. Such an over-simplification evidently does no justice to England’s ability to think creatively and play shrewdly, let alone their sheer commitment on the night, but there were no decoy runners from Wales, and a complete absence of variation from a leaden-footed back-line. No matter the size of the opposition, the very best professional teams are physically strong enough and technically good enough to defend the gain-line against such play for 80 minutes.

Perhaps, though, Scotland are not yet such a team, and for this reason you could argue there is little incentive for Wales to alter the blueprint this weekend. This is an arm wrestle they can win, and Warren Gatland is pragmatic if nothing else. Moreover, when called on, Wales do have the individuals to open games up. It should not be forgotten that this is a Welsh team who scored 50 points in last year’s fixture, with Stuart Hogg’s dismissal less of a factor in the magnitude of the victory than might be assumed. Rhys Webb provides a different dimension, while Jon Davies, virtually anonymous last week, will want the opportunity to run with the ball in Edinburgh.

All eyes on

George North’s non-selection following the concussion scandal – a case of the stable door being shut some time after the bolting of the horse – gives Liam Williams his opportunity, although many thought the Scarlets’ fullback should have started against England. As followers of the PRO12 will know, Williams has been an outstanding performer this season, slight but physical, and made of wrought iron. Since his emergence as a 19 year old, he has acquired greater pace to match his natural ruggedness and bite. His style is unorthodox, and the Scots will not relish his selection.

With the game being played on a Sunday, Geoff Cross takes Euan Murray’s place at tight-head in a Scotland scrum which performed creditably in Paris. In the 2013 fixture, Scotland won a mere 50% of scrums on their own ball and conceded 16 penalties, with Leigh Halfpenny kicking them out of the game. Cross needs to go well enough against Gethin Jenkins to win some of the inevitable penalties that will result. His notable beard gives him greater kudos as a front-rower this time around, but he has a particular score to settle in this fixture after his ignominious debut against Wales in 2009, when he was knocked out and yellow-carded within the first ten minutes.

Prediction

Wales’ physical game is based on the opposition giving an inch, and the Welsh working it into a yard. The inch is not always territorial; it comes at the breakdown and the scrum, and helps the Welsh to set up areas of dominance with which they chisel out an advantage on the scoreboard. Scotland’s pack faded as the contest wore on in Paris, and they could not match the French for guile. If they can keep the ball in play and away from the set piece in their own half, a victory is possible. However, it is difficult to see them lasting the course given what is at stake for the Welsh. Wales by 8.

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)