Warren Gatland has selected his side to face Italy on Saturday, looking to post a big score to win the title on points difference.
Can this team win well in Rome?
Wales:
15 Leigh Halfpenny
14 George North
13 Jonathan Davies
12 Jamie Roberts
11 Liam Williams
10 Dan Biggar
9 Rhys Webb
8 Taulupe Faletau
7 Sam Warburton (c)
6 Dan Lydiate
5 Alun-Wyn Jones
4 Luke Charteris
3 Aaron Jarvis
2 Scott Baldwin
1 Rob Evans
Replacements:
16 Ken Owens, 17 Rhys Gill, 18 Scott Andrews, 19 Jake Ball, 20 Justin Tipuric, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Rhys Priestland, 23 Scott Williams.
26 replies on “Six Nations 2015: Wales team to play Italy”
Hmm … grind em down then bring on Tips, Williams and Gareth Davies?
Spikey is not going to be happy at all. Great to see Ken Owens back in. Real depth at hooker for Wales now. Props are obviously a concern…
Especially against a strong Italian pack that pride themselves on the set piece
Looks like Castro (aka mad dog) will be back
Grind them down yes Brighty spot on win first point tally later Wales know that and the win is the priority above everything
On paper Eng to win and Ireland to complete the results however the great 6 nations has been a wonderfull breath fresh air in 2015
As a welsh exile of choice down under would love to see the reverse of the above results and Wales to grab the replica trophy no 3
However what ever the results bring on last Weekend well done Wales for being the brave Team in 2015 World Cup year
Cymru am byth
Will fatigue be an issue. Wales put in a hell of a shift against Ireland? Also Italy’s pack I suspect will have a point to prove after the French match, the front row being the only area where Italy may have the advantage.
Italy will try an pull Wales into an arm wrestle do Wales have the where with all to break free?
Italy will definitely be taking a close look at the scrum. That said, if they had an effective kicker (even 60%) it might be a concern for Wales. Wales by 25. Not enough to challenge for the title.
I looked at each of the odd years and applied the equivalent fixtures’ score differences to this year’s current table to see who would have won. This is how it ends up:
2001: England – Eng 66, Wal 22, Ire 11
2003: Ireland – Ire 63, Eng 45, Wal 4
2005: Ireland – Ire 60, Wal 42, Eng 36
2007: England – Eng 45, Ire 43, Wal 9
2009: England – Eng 61, Ire 40, Wal 17
2011: England – Eng 45, Ire 36, Wal 20
2013: England – Eng 47, Ire 29, Wal 29
So Wales will need a hitherto unprecedented set of results to bag enough points. Not impossible, just interesting.
Looking at even’s
2002 – Wales 22, Ireland 21, England -5
2004 – Wales 34, Ireland 21, England -3
2006 – Wales 0, Ireland 7, England -25
2008 – Wales 39, Ireland 21, England 11
2010 – Wales 23, Ireland -3, England -2
2012 – Wales 21, Ireland 18, England 2
2014 – Wales 8, Ireland 22, England -2
So Ireland every year there (based on current standings).
Look at final games (regardless of opponent) – last 5years
2010 (wales) – Wales +23, Ireland -3, England -2
2011 (ireland) – Wales -19, Ireland +16, England -16
2012 (england) – Wales +7, Ireland -21, England +21
2013 (wales) – Wales +27, Ireland -7, England -27
2014 (england) – Wales +48, Ireland +2, England +41
Cummulative Wales +86, Ireland -13, England +17
Trend shows Wales finish better; i don’t doubt that Wales, Ireland & England will all record win’s, the question is purely points… can wales repeat 2014 and get 40+ winning margin? If they did repeat and get 48pt (not impossible against current Italian side) are Italy or England going to attain the +20 they would need?
Today the question is, can Wales win by a large margin? yes/no
If it turns out to be a No, then it’s who can get the better Ireland or England
If it turns out to be a Yes, can Ireland or England record a similar big win against tougher opponents? (Despite Scotland current run i think they are tougher than italy)
What’s the point in looking at evens? We all know home advantage makes a huge difference, so why look at games where Ireland and Wales are at home – they’re away at the weekend.
Because there’s alot more going into this weekend then home field advantage; in the last 5years squads have changed; tactics have changed. Hell that occurs every year – otherwise why do we bother with an annual tournament?
Let’s not forget; injuries and form changes throughout the tournament – prior to this 6nations (autumn) North was in v.good form; but we haven’t seen much of him in 4games. Injuries in Ireland v Wales (and condition) could be pivotal.
We can look at any/all data and point it to what we want to occur; you want England, I want Wales – but until the weekend that’s all we have. I got confidence in my lads to put in a big margin and I you have confidence that England will see out the tournament in pole position.
Best of luck 😉
made a few mistakes above, 2010 wales would have won since Ireland & England both lost.
Then after the 48pt comment Italy or England should have been Ireland or England (italy on my brain :p)
Wales average margin over Italy in Rome is 9 (rounding up), and it’s 26 in Cardiff – it’s completely disingenuous to look at home results when Wales are away this weekend.
There’s alot to look at; for example closing out a tournament – how well have each team done at that in the lastr 5years – ie position going into final game, and final game result. – Can they cope with the pressure? thrive or fall under it.
So you think home advantage is irrelevant. That’s an interesting theory.
No irrelevant but not the only factor.
I would rather a team who a good “closing” record playing away.
Than a team with poor “closing” playing at home.
I don’t think it’s possible to nail this weekend down based on past performances; or where the games are taking place. Did anyone think France would do Italy so heavily without Italy scoring a singular point? and they did that on the road. Last weekend people were saying how the MS wasn’t a factor because Ireland do well there – on the day they lost. Stadiums play a factor but occasion; players, form, condition etc are more important in my eyes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/wales/11477716/Six-Nations-2015-Six-reasons-why-Wales-will-win-the-championship.html
That article is very selective with what it says. “They can score enough in Rome”, citing the one and only time they’ve scored more than the 27 they need to top the table *as it stands*.
Just go with it mun Geat. Feel it. The greatest comeback since Lazarus is on. Chumps on the 1st weekend, champs on the last. Stop with all of your logic, sense and analysis. Wales do Italy by at least 50, Ireland lose to Scotland and England fail to circumnavigate Bastareaud so can’t make it to the tryline enough.
(*I may still be feeling the effects of Saturday).
Winning the title would be lovely but it ain’t gonna happen for us this year. Still, should be 4/5 which I think makes the last 4 seasons for Wales (5/5,4/5.3/5/4/5) the best 4 season run we’ve ever had in the tournament, a nice builder for the world cup and it’s nice for our worst season to be the one midway between the WCs for a change.
I can’t bear the thought that Lancaster may have had to endure 2nd, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd come the final whistle on Saturday. In his three 6N so far he’s picked up 3 more wins that Johnson in that time (12 to 9), but has no titles to Johnson’s one. Doesn’t feel like justice!
However, I was chatting about it earlier, and if it came to pass that Wales, Ireland and England all lost in such a manner that France lifted the title, it would be so hilariously absurd I don’t even think I could be disappointed.
I like how they covered Wales, England & Ireland…
For wales the advantage of playing first meaning no pressure.
For ireland the advantage of playing second meaning they can play there natural game
For england the advantage of playing last so they know what they need to do
found that quite hilarious lol
Six reason why Wales won’t win the championship
1. Injuries to key players (especially front row)
2. Tired battered and bruised bodies
3. Away from home
4. its points difference that counts which means not only do they have to score a hatful but they need to effectively shut Italy out
5. Ireland probably win win increasing the target
6. England probably win win increasing the target
Yes i think they will win
I even think they could pick up a 30 point margin.
I just think they will need a 40 point margin and that is a bridge too far
Ok Guys Wales can thump Italy no Doubt. If Wales put in the aproach of 1st 40 tiring Italy out up front then next 40 they run at them with the backs… Wales can easily put up a margin of 48 pts, but Ireland can also out do scotland (Remember italy beat the scots) the big one is England vs france… If England Under estimate the french… We can be in for another frenchy surprise.
Italy’s biggest-ever home losing margin in the Six Nations is 47. Do you really believe that Wales can do better than their grand slam side of 2005, or England in 2001 and 2003?
Sorry, 2000 and 2002.
Given he posted he thinks they can you have ot assume he thinks they can (as do I).
I get the position your in much be frustrating; to be in pole position going into a match with a small margin and having the tougher of 3 opponents. 3 games; the pt’s needed scale with the opposition – wales need alot – have weakest opponent, ireland need a few – have weak opponent – england need to hold on – play france (could be either france that shows up)
But you have to accept – the faith of a supporter 😉 We all know wales can rack up a 50+ scoreline if they show up on the day. 2years ago v england – no-one expected that result, last year scotland people expected a win but not that margin. This weekend people expect wales to win by +20(ish) so prepare for them to blow italy out completely 😉
It’s not frustrating for me, this post is about Wales and nothing to do with England. I just think it’s disrespectful of Italy and pretty arrogant to think Wales will rack up the biggest ever 6N win in Rome. Maybe they will, but form and history would suggest tempered expectations wouldn’t go amiss.
Easily? When was the last time they did it? Bear in mind they haven’t been scoring that many tries, I think Wales can expect to come 2nd at best. England have won 7 of the 8 encounters at Twickenham since the 6N started, by an average margin of 14 points. That would increase out points difference over Wales to 39. I can’t see Wales putting that on Italy, in Rome, with a knackered front row against one of the toughest front rows in the competition.