Six Nations 2015: Wales vs England Prediction

Friday night matches aren’t everyone’s cup of tea, that much we know. But it’s tough to deny that Wales against England on a Friday night in Cardiff is a hell of a curtain-raiser for what is the biggest Six Nations in living memory.

The WRU have gone out all guns blazing to put on a spectacle (DJ Spoony has been recruited to provide a pre-game mix, if you can believe that) but in truth this is a game that needs no hyping. What has gone before – most notably England’s capitulation in Cardiff two years ago, but also their brilliant riposte last year at Twickenham, which seems to have been forgotten in some parts – means this is undoubtedly one of the games of the tournament.

And that’s before you even consider the fact that these two will meet in the Rugby World Cup later this year.

England

England have injury issues, yes, but they still name an immensely strong team, even if it lacks a little in experience. Arguably, it has allowed (or forced, the cynics will say) Lancaster to pick one of the most ambitious back-lines of his England tenure. If they get it right, Luther Burrell and Jonathan Joseph could be a sublime midfield partnership, the former’s power complimenting the latter’s guile.

George Ford is the perfect man to bring the best out of them both, and starts again at 10, while Jonny May and Anthony Watson are both devilishly difficult to bring down when given space. The biggest question marks in the back-line actually surround its two most experienced members – Mike Brown and Ben Youngs are lacking for form and need to step it up from what they have offered in the Premiership this season.

In the pack the front and back rows look strong, Dan Cole returning to anchor the scrummage and assist at the breakdown, where he can be surprisingly difficult to shift. Is he back at full fitness yet? Probably not, but that just means Kieron Brookes will come on for another cameo appearance and after the way he went in the autumn, that is no bad thing.

The engine room is where the greatest doubts will be, with George Kruis talented but raw alongside Dave Attwood who faces the biggest game of his career as the senior head. The line-out will be an intriguing battle, but the jet-heeled Tom Croft’s inclusion at some stage from the bench will be a boon if things aren’t going to plan.

Wales

The Welsh come into this game with a hugely settled look to their side. 11 of their starting 15 are test Lions, which gives you an idea of the core of experience and quality that runs through this team.

The only area they lack for Lions is in the half-backs, but the Ospreys duo of Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar know each other’s game inside out and both have been instrumental to the region’s relentless charge up the PRO12 table this season. They are far from a weakness.

The centres are full of brawn with Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies combining, while out wide George North has been told to come looking for the ball more – which means we are unlikely to see a change in Wales’ style of play to something wider. Expect Roberts and North to run hard and often at the 10/12 channel, where the former had such joy against Northampton recently.

The back-row battle is going to be vital and whoever wins it will go a long way to deciding their side’s fate. The triumvirate of Lydiate, Warburton and Faletau can flatter to deceive at times, but when they get it right they have all the elements that a successful back-row needs. Against an in-form England trio, they need to be at their best.

The front five sees the youthful exuberance of Jake Ball and Samson Lee dovetail nicely with gnarled warriors like Gethin Jenkins and Alun-Wyn Jones – the only slight concern for the Welsh will be how Jenkins holds up against the scrummaging prowess of Cole.

All Eyes On

You just get the feeling that this could be the Championship of Jamie Roberts. The hard-running, chisel-jawed centre seems to be peaking at just the right time, with barnstorming performances in recent weeks for his club against tough opposition – Toulon and Northampton Saints, no less. The fact that his chief victim in the latter game was the man he lines up against on Friday will have escaped neither player’s notice. It’s not like Burrell has tough tacklers surrounding him, either. Roberts will fancy his chances at breaking the gainline more often than not.

One of England’s greatest problems when they lost to South Africa and New Zealand in the autumn was their inability to get on the front foot as they carried the ball. For this reason, Billy Vunipola has an immensely important job against Wales. He was ineffective in those two games, but to be fair to him no other players looked like they were willing to make the hard yards. If the likes of Attwood, Kruis, Haskell and Burrell can smash some holes too, Wales won’t be able to focus all their energies on big Billy. Give him even a hint of a weak shoulder and he will punish you. If he can carry successfully and give George Ford a front foot platform to play from, England will do well.

Prediction

Wales are rightly favourites, given the game is in Cardiff and they have a fully fit starting XV. It is far from a foregone conclusion that they will win, however. Those England players with a memory of two years ago will certainly not let that happen again. As Warburton has pointed out, that game was a ‘freak event’, and the odds of it being a 27 point winning margin again are slim to none.

That said, it is difficult to look past Wales. The first half will be cagey as both sides shake off the rust, with England’s likely set piece advantage perhaps giving them the lead at half time. But Wales will emerge stronger in the second half as all their fitness work pays off, and their more settled combos start to click. Wales by 5.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images