Six Nations 2016: England vs Ireland Prediction

England vs Ireland in recent times has been a crucial battle in the hunt for the Six Nations title, and while it could be again this season, you sense that Ireland – with no wins from their first two games – may have missed the boat. Nonetheless, they will scrap for every inch at Twickenham on Saturday – zero from three would be an entirely ignominious situation for the back-to-back champions to find themselves in.

And when the sides run out onto the Twickenham turf on Saturday evening, the narrative will be one of transition. England are still coming to terms with Eddie Jones’ way of doing things, undoubtedly markedly different from his predecessor. Ireland, meanwhile, are struggling to get to grips with a new outlook on the game – last season’s kick-chase experts have put boot to ball less than any other side in the first two rounds. It has not sat wholly comfortably with them so far.

ENGLAND

There are a couple of changes from the side that won in Rome, both cases of players that impressed from the bench entering the starting line-up. Joe Marler was relentlessly physical in the tackle and shored up the scrum when he came on against the Azzurri; he rotates in for Mako Vunipola.

But most intriguingly, Maro Itoje makes his first start. Jones has shielded the young prodigy from the media limelight this week, but all eyes will be on him regardless. He will add another dimension to England’s breakdown work, while he must ensure he does not carry with too upright a body position or he will fall foul of Ireland’s famed choke tackle.

Elsewhere, Elliot Daly could win his first cap from the bench. Named in the 22 shirt, he has apparently been covering 12 in training, which would be a difficult situation in which to win his first cap. Hopefully, he can come on in the 13 channel that he has so dominated in domestic rugby this year.

Much focus too will fall on Mike Brown at fullback – the Harlequins man has come in for stick for failing to link well enough with the rest of the dangerous back three. He is undoubtedly a good counter-attacker, but can sometimes seem a bit blinkered in his approach when there are other options available to him.

Player to watch: Billy Vunipola

With no other recognised battering ram amongst their ranks, so much of England’s attacking play will depend on whether Vunipola can put his side on the front foot. He has done it with aplomb so far, but you can bet that Joe Schmidt and his team will have a plan to stop him. He and CJ Stander have been the standout ball carriers of the tournament so far – their battle on the gainline should send shockwaves throughout Twickenham.

IRELAND

Ireland’s injury issues have forced their hand somewhat, but it allows them to bring in two exciting youngsters. Josh van der Flier has been tearing up trees at Leinster in Sean O’Brien’s absence this season – he is brought in to do the same thing in the green of Ireland. In the midfield, Stuart McCloskey starts at 12 and Robbie Henshaw shifts to the 13 shirt in Jared Payne’s absence.

McCloskey appears to have all the tools to become an excellent international centre – he is a powerful runner, but has the intelligence to know that aiming for a weak shoulder will pay greater dividends than simply smashing over the top of someone. He is also a sublime distributor and has a well-rounded kicking game. Still, Twickenham is an intense environment in which to make a debut. England will also surely look to exploit Robbie Henshaw in the 13 channel, where greater positional awareness in defence is key.

The set piece has been a huge worry for Ireland so far, so it is with great relief that Schmidt welcomes the rock that is Mike Ross back on the tighthead side of the scrum. Donnacha Ryan represents a less stable option in the engine room, but with the raw power and athleticism of Ultan Dillane – a man many in Ireland have compared to a young Courtney Lawes – to come off the bench, their set piece wobbles could be behind them.

Player to watch: Johnny Sexton

An obvious choice, perhaps, but Sexton is never far away from the focus of any Ireland game. He has yet to play a full 80 minutes this tournament, being forced off with injury on both occasions. Eddie Jones’ barbed comments about his wellbeing will not have made an impression on his playing style, but there’s no doubt that having such an injury-prone first choice fly-half has hampered Ireland’s attempts at expanding their game.

PREDICTION

Ireland may not have won yet but their points difference of minus one tells you that they most certainly could have done, had a couple of things gone differently. As ever the set piece battle will be crucial and it will be intriguing to see what George Kruis’ plan B will be at the lineout – Italy worked out his desire to call every one to himself, so you can bet Ireland will be ready for that. Mike Ross should ensure the scrum is a 50/50 battle – as, to be honest, much of the game will be. Jones and Schmidt are both master tacticians, and despite Ireland’s publicised troubles with injury this one is on a knife edge. England by 3.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images