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Six Nations 2016: France vs Ireland Prediction

France haven’t beaten Ireland since 2011 – can Guy Noves change that when they welcome the men in green to Paris in the Six Nations this weekend?

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Following their dramatic draw against Wales in Dublin on Sunday, Ireland travel to Paris to face a Les Bleus side who only just managed to spare their blushes in a 23-21 home win against Italy that could have so very easily gone the other way. The last time these two sides met was in Cardiff during the group stages of last year’s Rugby World Cup, and a fine performance from the men green gave them a well deserved 24-9 victory.

It has been six years since France last won a Six Nations fixture against Ireland in Paris, a match that contributed to their 2010 Grand Slam success. The French did win the 2011 Rugby World Cup warm-up matches in both Paris and Dublin, the later of which being the last time that blue has defeated green. Ireland’s last Six Nations win in Paris, in 2014, was a dramatic affair which saw them stave off a French attack in the dying minutes to clinch a 22-20 victory which won them the Six Nations title.

IRELAND

The side named to face France tomorrow contains just three changes from the side who drew against Wales in Dublin. After an impressive debut last weekend, CJ Stander retains his place in the starting XV, with Tommy O’Donnell dropping to the bench following the return of Sean O’Brien.

Rob Kearney is also back from injury at full back, with his brother Dave promoted from the replacements to join him in the back three in place of Keith Earls. Despite injury doubts about the fitness of Johnny Sexton and Andrew Trimble, both players have been cleared to play in Paris.

Player to watch: Rob Kearney

Having missed last weekend’s Dublin draw with Wales, Kearney will be relishing the opportunity to help Ireland get back to winning ways. An incredibly safe pair of hands under the high ball, and equally dangerous on the attack with ball in hand, the Leinsterman has established himself as one of the world’s top full backs. With his brother alongside him on the wing, he will be hoping they can cause some Kearney chaos in Paris!

FRANCE

As New Zealand great Sean Fitzpatrick once said, the French are “predictably unpredictable”, and so despite an incredibly disappointing two-point win against Italy at the weekend which will have left the French supporters more than a little uncomfortable, you can never be certain what the French will provide a week later.

Coach Guy Noves has reacted to that result by making six changes, most notably the inclusion of Jefferson Poiroit and Uini Atonio to bulk up their front row. Dangerous runner Gael Fickou drops out of the match day 23 due to personal reasons with Bonneval, Slimani, Ben Arous and Jedrasiak dropping down to the bench.

Possibly the most glaring omission from the French team sheet is that of Louis Picamoles, the powerful but athletic number eight who suffered a hamstring injury against the Italians. Yacouba Camara takes over from Damian Chouly at flanker, who replaces Picamoles at number eight.

Player to watch: Damian Chouly

With Picamoles injured, Damian Chouly has some big boots to fill. However, he is just as comfortable playing at number eight as he is on the flank, where he was in Paris last week, so it should be a role he is comfortable with. There’s no doubt that France will miss the athleticism and powerful, direct running that Picamoles has provided them with since his 2008 debut, but a strong performance from Chouly will help to minimise the impact of an injury to such a key player.

PREDICTION

Ireland are a far more settled side than France, with a large proportion of their players automatically written onto the team sheet.The French will be disappointed after last week’s efforts against Italy, however. They will be hoping for a strong performance that will give the Stade de France something to cheer about after a difficult few months in the French capital. However, recent results between these two sides have been in favour of Ireland and so the men in green are clearly the favourites. Ireland by 12.

By Sophie Freestone

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images