England will take to the Stadio Olimpico turf on Sunday afternoon with a point to prove. Their win over Scotland in Eddie Jones’ first game in charge was efficient, but nothing more. Although the regime is still green, with another week under their belts – and up against the supposed weakest side in the tournament – England will be expected to not only win but win well to sate the expectations of their demanding fanbase.
You could argue that Italy, bizarrely, came out of the opening weekend with the most credit – sure, they lost, but they pushed France all the way in Paris and but for a weird decision by Parisse to drop a goal, they could well have won. They played some good rugby in the process – the question now is, do they believe they can do it against a technically superior side like England?
ITALY
Italy played with refreshing abandon against France last weekend, but no-one will be exclaiming their brilliance quite yet. They have played sporadically well in this manner against France in recent times, but their record against the top half of the Six Nations table has been dire. We will be able to tell a lot more about this revamped Italian outfit after this game.
Brunel makes one change to the side that came within two points in Paris, Luke McLean restored to the fullback shirt. McLean has experience at fly-half and will dovetail nicely with Carlo Canna, whose performance in Paris has tongues wagging. Outside him, Exeter’s Michele Campagnaro showed against France the kind of form that saw him burst into collective consciousness with two tries against Wales a few years ago.
In the pack, Wasps’ Lorenzo Cittadini is again preferred to Martin Castrogiovanni, while Zebre pair Ornel Gega and Andrea Lovotti join him in the front row. They had the measure of a much-hyped French unit at scrum time last weekend – how they fare against a powerful England pack will be intriguing to see, and Cittadini in particular will fancy his chances against Mako Vunipola.
Player to watch: Carlo Canna
Canna’s performance in Paris felt like a coming of age moment for a young playmaker, but we have, of course, been here before in Italy’s lengthy search for a worthy replacement to Diego Dominguez. Luciano Orquera and Tommaso Allan both shone brightly at times; what neither of them had was consistency. If Canna can banish the kicking demons that plagued him early on last week, and continue to take the ball to the line with relish, he can cause England problems and perhaps, finally, put this debate to rest.
ENGLAND
Eddie Jones has been talking a good game this week, mentioning his desire to play a faster game against Italy than the fairly turgid, kick-dominated fare we saw at Murrayfield. In some ways, his changes reflect this; Mako Vunipola’s dynamism in the loose is well-noted, and Courtney Lawes is very mobile as a lock. Ben Youngs’ selection over Danny Care will give England more control from scrum-half, but Youngs also has an unpredictable streak that should see him enjoy any open game-plan they employ.
That is where the fun ends, however. Jack Clifford remains on the bench, despite calls for him to inject pace into what is a rather one-paced back-row trio of Robshaw, Haskell and Vunipola. The six-two split of forwards to backs on the bench does not scream ambition, either, although it is great to see Maro Itoje in line to make his first appearance from the timber.
Owen Farrell retains the number 12 shirt, and there were positive signs at Murrayfield that he can become well suited to this role. His part in Jack Nowell’s try saw him execute the basics accurately while he once cut a Jamie Roberts-eque hard line off George Ford’s shoulder – a tactic England must look to employ more often if they are not to become too reliant on Billy Vunipola to get them over the gainline.
Player to watch: George Ford
Ford’s form struggles have been plain for all to see, and while he showed some nice touches against Scotland, there were also too many misguided kicks and fumbles that belied a player scratching around desperately for some confidence. At the top of his game, Ford is a joy to watch with ball in hand, and with a bit of luck a more attacking outlook in this game will see him return to the level of the player that orchestrated some brilliant England performances in last year’s tournament.
PREDICTION
England fans were content with the win over Scotland, but more is needed this weekend. The visitors must win, and win with a bit of style. They have pummelled Italy the last few times they have met, and despite the improvements shown last weekend by the Azzurri – and the enduring brilliance of Sergio Parisse – there is an evident gulf of class between the two sides. Given the bulk of this England side have been together throughout Lancaster’s regime, there is no reason why fans shouldn’t be entitled to expect the visitors to go out and put a few tries on Italy. England by 21.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
4 replies on “Six Nations 2016: Italy vs England Prediction”
The 6-2 split actually tells me the complete opposite to what you’ve taken from it: he wants to keep the ball in play and keep it moving, hence his forwards will be completely knackered, so he’s named the extra one on the bench to keep up, possibly even increase, that pace. It’s not the way I’d have gone – once he let Kvesic go I’d have probably started Clifford at 7, moved Haskell to 6 and brought Beaumont on to the bench, and I’d have definitely kept the more traditional 5-3 bench, with one of Devoto or Hill on there. Still, looking forward to seeing Maro finally step out on to a field for the full side and for Clifford and Hill to have an opportunity to show what they can do.
I would hazard that the 6-2 split is not a brain fart by Eddie Jones, but rather a clever tactical gamble. It is no mistake that he has opted for the same heavy pack as last week; nor is it a mistake that he has named near enough a replacement pack, or that those players are lighter, more athletic players. I expect Jones to play exactly the game he has been touting, but only in the second half…
Prediction: up the jumper, route 1 rugby in the first half, entire pack change by 60 to a more dynamic pack, with Care coming on to inject yet even more pace against tiring Italian legs.
Seems to have played out pretty much per your prediction. 🙂
england to play up the jumper until they feel the game is won ,…15 points + up , then try to open up the game after italy heads drop , ….i got a feelin it wont be as easy as england think tho , i will go eng 32 – 16 ish