Six Nations 2016: Italy vs Scotland Prediction

There is a very familiar queasiness in the Scottish stomach this week.  Rome – and matches against Italy in general – have provided the backdrop for Scotland to push the art of calamity into new waters. 

There was the initial humiliation of losing to the Six Nations debutants in 2000 as reigning Five Nations champions; the winning Fabio Ongaro try-that-wasn’t off a botched lineout in 2004 (we’ve seen that one again since); there was the noble but misguided ‘run them off their feet’ folly in 2007 as Scotland conceded three tries in the first ten minutes; and finally, the travesty of last year’s squandered first half lead, the missed kick to touch, two yellow cards, and penalty try.  With this sort of baggage, there are few reasons for optimism this time around.

ITALY

At the start of this championship, ItalY coach Jacques Brunel took a hatchet to his World Cup squad, and the results have, on the whole, been impressive.  In the first two games, the fresh-faced, leggy Carlo Canna added, if not goal-kicking prowess, then a certain spontaneity to a backline which has always lacked inspiration.  Outside him, Gonzalo Garcia, a fixture in the side for some time, has looked remade, while Michele Campagnaro continues to impress at 13.

The big loss this week, then, is that Canna has failed to prove his fitness in time and as a result Kelly Haimona plays at 10.  He is the commentator’s dream during one-paced Italy matches by virtue of his size and comedy goal-kicking, but Haimona has never hit any great heights in this tournament despite four starts last year.  It must be said, however, that one of those starts came in the victorious visit to Murrayfield.

Italy’s pack has been solid as usual despite missing a player of the quality of Simone Favaro, the open-side, who was also instrumental in the victory against Scotland last year.  Most importantly, Sergio Parisse continues to defy age and the impact of 15 years of international rugby.  Quite simply, he was still the best forward on the pitch against both England and France.  His sheer presence was one of the reasons Italy prevailed last year, and Scotland have often struggled to subdue him.

Player to watch: Mattia Bellini

Bellini may not have played much rugby at the highest level, but he looks a real handful, much in the style of Jonny May.  His startling sidestep and deceptively strong running may pose a few issues for Tim Visser, not always the first to volunteer for tackling practice.

SCOTLAND

Unless you’ve lived under a rock for the last 16 years, Scotland’s failure to capitalise on a winning position in Cardiff was not news.  There was a certain novelty to last year’s tournament – losing while playing attractive rugby – but this has since faded with the prospect of a tournament win against anyone other than Italy looking still some way off.  For the sanity of the whole country, a win is vital.

The team reflects just one change, with Tim Visser replacing Sean Lamont.  Visser has been a valuable signing for Harlequins and appears to have rediscovered the try-scoring knack that made him such a hit in his first three seasons at Edinburgh.  That said, the fumbling of high balls and poor defensive work don’t appear to have been ironed out completely.  A better attacking player than Scotland’s other options, this Saturday is an opportunity to cement the 11 shirt as his own.  The good news is that Stuart Hogg is fit to start at fullback, with Scotland a much more dangerous team with him on the pitch.

There’s no question that Italy will pose real problems in the tight – and the driving maul is a very real concern – but you cannot help but feel that the real test will come if the game is still close in the last twenty minutes.  Can Scotland manage the pressure and expectation and find a way to win?  Unless a 15 point advantage is achieved before then, you sense it will be hairy.  Crucial in this will be Finn Russell.  In his debut Six Nations, he enjoyed a licence to experiment and make mistakes.  That licence still applies, but Scotland really need signs of maturity and a genuine test match temperament.

Player to watch: Ross Ford

What really cost Scotland in Wales was a malfunctioning line out. Ford simply must throw well in order to maintain field position and possession.  Despite having 47 Six Nations caps, Ford is arguably under pressure from the injured Fraser Brown and Stuart McInally, both converted back-rowers who tend to offer more around the field.

PREDICTION

The rut that Scotland are in is an absolutely wretched one, particularly because there are no obvious, systematic ways to improve – their defeats are a matter of simple mistakes under pressure.  Whilst Italy were soundly beaten against England in the last 30 minutes, they pushed what appears to be a half-decent French team all the way.  With Italy always a menacing underdog in this fixture, and on home turf this time around, I see a victory for them. Italy by 4. 

By Charlie King (@CharlescpKing)

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images