Scotland and England come into this Six Nations in entirely different places. The hosts, it is largely accepted, had a better World Cup than expected, playing some exciting rugby and coming closer than any other Northern Hemisphere nation of breaking the southern grip on the semi-finals.
England, meanwhile, begin yet another post-World Cup Six Nations with a new coach. The beginning of the Eddie Jones era has been fascinating, with a complete revamp of the coaching staff preceding a much less complete change in playing personnel. Will his tenure begin with a win at Murrayfield?
SCOTLAND
Scotland name a team that shows just two changes from the one that crashed out in such devastating circumstances to Australia on that drizzly October day at Twickenham. Matt Scott takes the number 12 shirt from the injured Peter Horne, while John Barclay returns after a long international exile to slot in on the blindside flank.
And the latter change is a hugely interesting one, given that Barclay will play with John Hardie giving Scotland two ‘genuine’ opensides to England’s none. In the game against Australia they battled well at the breakdown in David Pocock’s absence, and with no breakdown specialist in England’s ranks, it will be an area they target. If the Gray brothers can use their power and mobility to effectively clear the ruck area, Hardie and Barclay could cause havoc on England’s ball.
The back-line looks as dangerous as ever, with Mark Bennett’s return from injury a real boon in the centres. His battle with Jonathan Joseph should be immensely entertaining, while much focus will as ever be on Stuart Hogg and his livewire counter-attacking.
Key player: Finn Russell
Russell’s emergence as a bona fide play-making fly-half has allowed Scotland’s attacking game to reach the next level. He is a decent physical presence who enjoys taking the ball to the line, and his kicking is excellent also. What he needs to re-discover is some form – he has been part of a Glasgow side that have stuttered since the World Cup. If he can click with his back-line, Scotland will score tries.
ENGLAND
Eddie Jones has resisted wholesale changes, naming no debutants in the starting line-up and sticking with players that featured under Stuart Lancaster. He is showing respect to Scotland by picking a team of players that will know how to deal with what will undoubtedly be a hostile atmosphere in the capital.
George Ford and Owen Farrell both start, the latter filling the playmaking role at 12 that Jones wants to develop. Danny Care is preferred at scrum-half and will ensure the two playmakers see plenty of quick ball, but with Jonathan Joseph also preferring to run at the outside shoulder of defenders, it will be intriguing to see if they can avoid the trap of attacking too laterally.
The front five, with Dylan Hartley back in as captain, will be fired up, especially after a poor World Cup showing. It is one area that England certainly look stronger on paper, and under the tutelage of Steve Borthwick and Ian Peel they will certainly be hoping to find an edge at the set piece.
Much intrigue will come if and when the bench is emptied, with three players set to win their first caps. The 20 year old prop Paul Hill is a baby in front row terms, while Jack Clifford will provide an explosion of energy whenever he is introduced. Ollie Devoto will have to put a lack of game time at Bath behind him, and offers an alternative play-making option in that 12 shirt.
Key player: James Haskell
Haskell has been entrusted as Jones’s openside, even though it is arguably his weakest position in the back row. He does not wear seven for his club but has been working with the man who does, George Smith, to improve his influence at the breakdown. Up against Barclay and Hardie, he will have his work cut out, and while breakdown duties of course do not sit solely on his shoulders, he must lead the charge.
PREDICTION
Scotland undoubtedly impressed at the World Cup, but it is worth remembering that they did not actually beat another tier one nation. They came so, so close against Australia, but nonetheless came unstuck. The theme of shooting themselves in the foot is one that arises often in Scottish rugby’s recent history, and so despite having the more settled – and, you could argue, more dangerous – line-up on paper, much depends on whether Vern Cotter can instil real belief in his players that they can beat this England side.
And that is a tough task given that England have won the last six instalments of this fixture, with a draw in 2010 the closest Scotland have come since 2008. But with such turnover behind the scenes south of the border, and the hosts’ tails undoubtedly up after playing some excellent rugby in the autumn, I just fancy Scotland to shade this one. Scotland by 2.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images
24 replies on “Six Nations 2016: Scotland vs England Prediction”
I wrote this about Sco v Eng on another blog and with a few changes I think it is apposite here as well…
Back row – Sure Hardie is a better 7 than Haskell – but Barclay a better flanker than Robshaw and Denton a better 8 than Vunipola? Not a chance.
Bennett and Scott are decent centres but neither are up to the level of Joseph if he plays as he did last year. Farrell is a bit of an unknown at 12 mind and I am concerned he could be a complete disaster – that said he is the form 10 in Europe with the exception of perhaps Carter and has played 12 next to Ford in the past.
9-15 Scotland play the same side that got beaten last year, with the exception of Maitland in for Fife. Their back three can score tries but I’d select none of them over the England equivalent – the closest would be Hogg but I don’t rate his defence and he has a tendency to make awful errors and pick up cards.
Like Ford, Finn Russell is not in good form
Front 5 is all closer but Dickinson is not much of a threat and Ross Ford is almost as inexplicable as Brad Barritt. Nel is the biggest concern come scrum time but EJ must be seeing something improved in Marler to have picked him ahead of Vunipola and the inclusion of Hartley should strengthen the scrum.
Scotland’s performance in the RWC has been somewhat over-played in my opinion. They should have lost to Samoa and were lucky enough to play Aus when they had a stinker, gifting tries left right and centre.
There’s no doubt that Scotland have a good team and that this is a banana-skin for England but there’s no guarantee that Scotland have got over their implosive tendencies. They also look very light on the bench, especially in the forwards.
if EJ has done any kind of decent work with them, England should win this – although probably not by much
Have to agree with Pablito here. Put each player up against their opposite number, and you’d have to fancy England really. To say England don’t have a genuine openside is playing it down a bit. Haskell played quite a lot at 7 for Wasps and England in his early days, and when he played in NZ it was his preferred position. Combine this with the work he’s been doing with George Smith, and I think he will be better than we expect.
I think the key battle is the second row. Launchbury and Kruis up against the Grays should be a monumental battle, and I think the lineout could come down to the hookers, where I think Hartley and George will be far better.
Set piece will be where the game is won and lost, and England (with Borthwick and Peel on board), should come up trumps.
England by 6.
I agree on the 7 point as well. I think Haskell is the best of the ‘6 n a halfs’ at the breakdown and tbh the issue of not having an out-and-out-7 has only been an issue when playing top level southern hemisphere teams like Australia and New Zealand. And Wales in Cardiff in 2013 (still hurts).
The lack of a real 7 wasn’t an issue in the last 6N for England so don’t think it will be as much of a problem this year as some people are saying. We played Robshaw and Haskell in the backrow last time, and I think they will be more effective this year with their numbers reversed. Launchbury and Cole are also back and they really add to the work done at the breakdown.
What concerns me more is the loose turnover ball often generated by a team with a brand new game plan (running lines slightly off, players not quite in the right position and throwing speculative offloads) – with Scotland’s pace in the back three I can see this being determined by a turnover try.
Good point. Fine players though the Scottish boys are, they aren’t Pocock and Hooper. They’re capable of causing us problems, but if Haskell and Robshaw can just get to the rucks and clear them out they’ll go okay, even if they don’t turnover much ball themselves.
Neither Hardie nor Barclay played last Six Nations, however, just to play Devil’s Advocate…
Bennett is every bit as good as Joseph if not better IMO.
Agreed. If Bennett played for any other home nation, people would be saying he’s a nailed on to start for the Lions in 2017.
Well I shall bet on England and cheer for Scotland.
I am a Scotland supporter so I don’t really want to comment unfairly. All in all I’d say I don’t see how either side can afford to lose this. If this was Twickenham England would run away with it. But as it’s at Murrayfield it’s going to be very interesting.
“I don’t really want to comment unfairly”?
You are entitled voice to your opinion here. Scotland have a very real chance of winning this going into the clash as the more settled side, playing at home with debatably better form. Us England fans are nervous, hopeful but nervous
My point is my prediction will be swayed by the fact that I am a Scotland supporter. It would probably end up a biased opinion. My heart says Scotland. My head says England.
‘Entitled to voice an opinion’.
As long as it does not contradict the Pro-English Master Race/BBC view that all the Non-English inhabitants of these islands get rammed down their throats every time the England team takes to the field.
As all the Scottish lads I knew at Uni would universally tell you…
‘So much for a Union of equal partners’
The fascinating aspect for me is to see if EJ can get a group of players all capped under Lancaster, mostly first choice, to produce a coherent and cohesive performance.
Will we see some structure and pattern of play? Will the foundations of the set piece be solid? Will Cole play the game on his feet or on the ground?
For all Lancaster’s bull on culture and identity, not many people would identify a retreating tame pack as English. We lost our identity, if EJ can rediscover it we have much to look forward to.
I think we’ll prove too strong, but I wish we had a bit more pace in the backrow. I do fear there will already be a blue shirt over the ball before we arrive.
England by 8
same England team as world cup !??? scotland by 3
Not the same by any means. EJ has stripped out the deadwood, retained the best, and added some fresh faces and ideas.
Where ?
But all in the squad that was traumatized by the World Cup ! Do you think jones can turn it around that quick ? If he had the choice he would have got rid of 50% of these players ! I would say that quite a few of these guys will not be around for 2019 !
Yes exactly the same.
Apart from Hartley over Youngs.
And Kruis over Parling.
Launchbury over Lawes.
Haskell over Wood.
Billy V over Morgan.
Care in for Youngs, and no Wigglesworth on the bench.
Ford over Farrell and Farrell replacing Barrett.
And Nowell in for May.
Oh and the bench is completely different bar Mako.
EXACTLY the same as the side that crashed out of the World cup.
England should be winning this game and by a comfortable margin tbh. That is the reality of the situation. However as they have been traumatised by the World Cup and Scotland are at home it is fair enough that people will doubt England.
Far too many polite and modest comments on here so far. Time for an arrogant git to enter the fray.
I think England will win this by between 10 and 20 points.
Scotland were nowhere near as good at the world cup as everyone seems to think they were.
Conversely, England weren’t really that bad – I mean yes they were shit, but not much worse than any other six nations teams.
England have a real point to prove and a new coaching set-up, which brings with it a motivational boost.
They also have better players in most positions, including superior replacements.
Well, maybe I was a bit over-enthusiastic, but that was not a bad start for England.
Scotland never really looked like threatening the England try line, which is a massive first step. Some solid performances throughout the team and, a couple of individual brain farts aside, discipline was pretty good.
Most people seem to be gong for England and that would be the same money, but Scotland have a chance. Three areas which I believe will decide this game:
1 – Nell’s scrummaging technique, if it is accepted by the referee then the England scrum could be in a for a tough first half although I have seen referees go against him early on in the game, in which case the Scotland scrum would be in trouble.
2 – The Breakdown, as always, England’s biggest problem in the world cup was the clamp down on neck roles at the ruck. England tended to arrive late, the new interpretations make it almost impossible to move the small squat player who is over the ball. If they referee the ruck in the same fashion tomorrow then Hardie could have a field day with the English forwards.
3 – The gain-line, England’s other problem at the WC was getting over the gain-line, this hurt their rucking more than any Australian did. With Youngs out, they have lost another ball carrier, Billy needs to be on his game if England are to do well, but he will be well marked. The other issue is the backline looks a little light. Who is going to carry bad quality ball? This is a real area of weakness for England but to be fair EJ did not have many options, I would have put Mako in because of this.
Summary
If Nell is allowed to twist in the scrum, Neck roles are punished and Scotland stop Billy, Scotland will win but there are a lot of ifs there and I still fancy England.
England by 3. I think that sheer determination to win and the lack of pressure and expectation on them will make the difference. This team is not vastly different to the one that beat Scotland in the 6N last year. Not entirely convinced that Scotland will be able to sustain their RWC form. I hope I’m wrong.
By the way, where is the Fra v Ita preview? I believe that France are going to be the team to beat over the next few years under Noves. Noves is a very different coach to PSA and Leivremont and will give France what they need to get them back to their best and scare the SH teams. They wont win the 6N this year but give them another year and they will be ready.