The hosts in Cardiff on Friday night, Wales, are progressing well through this year’s competition, managing an impressive win against Scotland in round two – a fixture which is producing some classic matches in this era. The game also saw George North return to his try-scoring ways, and Jamie Roberts continued his sensational form, carrying the ball into contact time and time again, working hard to get Wales over the gain-line.
New-look France have shown moments of brilliance amongst some rather scrappy rugby. Their win against Ireland will give Les Bleus hope before they travel to the Principality Stadium tomorrow, a 70th minute set-piece try from full-back Medard showing that, as always, France can crank it up a gear when they need to – and they’ll need to in Cardiff on Friday night.
WALES
Warren Gatland has made three changes to his starting line-up for tomorrow’s clash against France.
Alex Cuthbert comes into the starting XV once again after having a spell on the fringes; he had a chance to stretch his legs for the Cardiff Blues last weekend in their narrow defeat at home to Leinster, and will certainly have a point to prove.
Davies and Roberts partner up again in the centre displaying a healthy combination of skill and raw power, and George North will be looking to make a big impact on the game again this weekend on the wing. Wales fans will no doubt be delighted that Dan Biggar has managed to shake off his ankle injury from the opening weekend as he retains his place at outside-half, and Gareth Davies, who showed how dangerous he can be in broken play last weekend, holds on to his number nine jersey.
In the pack, Taulupe Faletau will be instrumental in getting Wales over the gain-line, and changes in the back-row mean that Warburton shifts to his more established position of openside and Dan Lydiate comes in in place of Justin Tipuric, who will have to get comfy on the bench at the starting whistle for the first time this tournament.
Alun-Wyn Jones, who has failed to impose himself on the first two weekends, starts in the second-row, partnering the experienced Bradley Davies who comes in for Luke Charteris who has been ruled out with a knee injury. Samson Lee continues to defy his critics, coping exceptionally well in the scrum and Rob Evans and Scott Baldwin join him to complete an unchanged front-row.
Player to watch: Jamie Roberts
Jamie Roberts will be key in unlocking the French defence. He is arguably in the form of his career, and if he carries as well as he has done in Wales’ last two fixtures, he has the potential to make some huge ground and ensure that his side keep themselves on the front foot.
FRANCE
Coach Guy Noves has made no less than five changes to the side that managed to sneak a win against Ireland on the second weekend.
The ever-elusive Maxime Medard retains his full-back berth, and the sensational Virimi Vakatawa starts on the right wing with Djibril Camara making his debut on the left. Jonathan Danty and Maxime Mermoz will have their work cut out in the centre trying to close down straight-running Roberts, and the impressive Jules Plisson starts at outside-half with François Trinh-Duc coming onto the bench. Maxime Machenaud starts at scrum-half tomorrow night after impressing off the bench two weeks ago.
In the pack, the versatile Wenceslas Lauret starts at blindside flanker, Antoine Burban and Damien Chouly joining him at eight and seven respectively. Alexandre Flanquart and Paul Jedrasiak make-up the second row partnership, and in the front-row, Jefferson Poirot and Rabah Slimani partner-up with captain, Guilham Guirado, to form a starting XV that looks significantly different for the third round in a row.
Player to watch: Maxime Machenaud
The Racing Metro 92 scrum-half has been recalled to the starting line-up after his intelligent dart of the base of the scrum opened up the space for France’s game-winning try against Ireland. With his opposite number Gareth Davies also in fine-form, it will be an interesting contest between the two number nines under the Friday night lights of Cardiff.
PREDICTION
Whilst France are very much a new-look outfit, the counter-attacking threat from players such as Medard and Vatakawa is plain to see. They are one of only two teams left in the tournament who can win a Grand Slam, so there is plenty of potential for Les Bleus to come out of the blocks hunting a big win.
Wales will need to call upon their big-game experience in order to secure the win. They too will be looking for a big result in order to keep them on the road to winning the championship, albeit without the giddy heights of a Grand Slam.
The hosts have the potential to win well and with players like North and G. Davies proving that they still carry white-line fervour with them to these games, anything is possible. I expect France to force Wales into a scrappy, territorial battle, and I suspect that Wales may just make hard work of it. Wales by 3.
By Daniel Jenkins
Follow Daniel on Twitter: @DanWJenkins
16 replies on “Six Nations 2016: Wales vs France Prediction”
At fear of being shouted down by the Taffia…
I didn’t think Wales were that impressive against Scotland, George North’s brilliant solo try withstanding which I felt was scored in spite of not because of the way Wales play the game, and I really don’t get the Jamie Roberts love in. Yes he manfully tackled, and yes he drove into contact time and time again. But, outside of his try (which was harder not to score) what did he actually contribute in attack? Look at the facts, Stuart Hogg made more metres in 23 minutes than Roberts (and quite a few other Welsh players) made in the whole game. And how many times did we have to put up with Jonathan ‘It’s on’ Davies call an overlap on commentary only for Roberts to run inside into heavy traffic making an inch over the gain line?
I think Wales still will win 6 Nations, but I can’t agree it will be an impressive win .
“Taffia” thats brilliant, how have I not heard of that before?
I love hearing that anguish and frustration in Jiffy’s commentary! “They have to go wiiiide!” swiftly followed by a groan as the ball is smashed up the middle again. Got to feel for the poor bar steward. 🙂
It’s almost like Stuart Hogg plays full back or something. What a silly point…
Oh come on, you may not be a fan of Roberts style but comparing meters made between a 12 and a 15 doesn’t make any sense. Full backs always have really high meters made stats because they run the ball back when it is kicked too them. All of Roberts yards made are in the tight, on the gainline and are therefore considerably more valuable.
Yep for Roberts to get over the gainline he has to get to it first, with the ball inevitably having travelled 5-10m back before reaching his hands. For a fullback they just need to catch the ball and take one step foreward to cross the gainline, often unopposed for the first 5m-10m depending on the kick chase.
Interesting stats came out of Accenture as reported by bloodandmud on his podcast. They did stats for ‘carrying effectiveness’ – so it looks at total metres made by individuals, and reports what percentage of the total metres made were made over the gain line.
Hogg & L Williams – Lowest 20% ish.
Campagnaro – 85% (166 metres total, of which, 85% were made over the gain line)
Billy V – 58%
CJ Stander – 100%
Roberts – 75%
Not one for stats generally, but found this one interesting.
If this game is scrappy and tight affair I fancy France to win it with the strength of their counterattack but TBH I don’t think it will be close at all.
France have edged two scrappy affairs at home against weak or weakened opposition. Now we get to see how well they travel and historically the answer is not well at all. I expect this will be over as a contest by halftime and then Wales will cut loose in the second half for a 20 point win
Am 85% sure of a Wales win, but if France get the upper hand in the set piece they could win an unedifying arm wrestle of a match. Have they agreed to a closed roof I wonder?
Optimistic to say 20 point win, but it would be very welcome. The fact Cuthbert has been picked suggests the ball is unlikely to pass 13, and a big score I feel unlikely. Selection appears to me to be a move to stand up to strong French counter-rucking.
With regards to Doc Roberts, I get why he has as many people question his game play as admire it. But is it not indicative of a good player when you don’t always see or appreciate the hard work done, because they make it look ordinary? The try he scored wasn’t just a case of “smash and grab” – he ran a very well timed and angled line; training ground move or not. In defence he holds the back line shape and rarely leaves the gate open. His ball retention in the tackle is good and (I expect someone will have the stats) he isn’t easy to turn over.
All said, I would have preferred to see Liam Williams to 14 and Anscombe at 15. But again, Rabbit is clearly resorting to type in order to secure the win first and foremost. I only hope with England building moment, there isn’t too much of an eye on 12 March, and not enough concentration on tomorrow.
Given the talent and experience in the Welsh squad, they should really be taking the French by 2+ tries but they’re still not clicking. North’s try against Scotland was impressive but the Scottish defence was in tatters. I hope that with a fit Biggar (if he is) and J Davies coming back into form, North and even Cuthbert should be sailing over the whitewash a couple of time each plus a cheeky try from G Davies… but I can’t seeing it happen just yet. With the back row Wales have, there should be quick ball flying down the line putting the back 3 into space but the ball always seems to slow up on the way. Wales seem to have the players just not the execution in attack that they threaten. I can’t help but think the current coaching setup is part of the problem rather than the solution – thoughts?
The likes of Guscott et al will say Wales are in a period of transition from their “Warrenball” approach, to a more expansive style of play in the wide channels. That is the mark of a good coaching team if true – to identify when you have been worked out and change the game plan.
And the introduction of players based on form rather than reputation before the tournament also looked a welcome move – Dropping Cuthbert for James, holding back on Liam Williams rather than rush him into the side so soon after injury (a plan I appreciate was forced to change with late injuries), not picking Jenkins, trialling two 7s… But now there seems to be a resorting to traditional game play. As if, “that didn’t work – we gave it a game and a half.” One thing you have to admire Eddie Jones for is his bringing in new players gradually rather than a wholesale change in direction. And these things take time – something you don’t have when results count.
There are still some players who could, in my opinion, be bled into the team to add more cut and thrust. But by and large, I think the coaching staff are caught between a desire to change, and the fear of disrupting a tested format. We may see more experimentation on the NZ tour, when everyone will say we’re already on a hiding to nothing, so why not?
To add a caveat to the notion of moving to an expansive game. That only works if your final receiver is a Shane Williams or a Matthew Morgan. If it’s a lumbering oaf who’s out of form and low on confidence, then it’s just going to be another case of, Samoan sidestep, lose ball in contact, turn over, counter attack try with 4 minutes to time…
I genuinely hope that Cuthbert finds some confidence and North returns to the form he had during the Lions tour (just not against England, speaking personally). They still need to be put into space though and I’m not sure Gatland knows how to do so. You could see his reasoning at the time, but his decision to play JD instead of BOD with the Lions rather smacked of a refusal to play a more expansive game. Separately, I do wonder how the coaching team will re-integrate Halfpenny now that Liam Williams is fit and Dancing Dan has the kicking duties. I would assume he’ll play on the wing in place of Cuthbert which makes frankly a pretty impressive and experienced backline. Perhaps Halfpenny has the skills and speed you mention above.
I think a fit 1/2p would always trump Williams at 15 for Gatland purely for his defensive duties, but then L Williams must surely trump Cuthbert for the wing. And true enough, before the Lions tour North looked the favourite over Cuthbert, but after that year’s 6N game against England, Cuthbert had moved to be the in form winger with his dance around Mike Brown.
Unpicking defences these days is normally done through fast feet or strength, or, if you’re lucky, you get to expose a defensive error where someone gets over excited and creates a dog leg back line (much like that which lead to the Welsh try over England at RWC). In the centre, we have a good blend of both with Roberts / Allen at 12, and JD2 / T Morgan or S Williams at 13. I’d also argue that JD brought something BOD was lacking by the time we reached that last game in 2013.
Maybe it comes down to player confidence and mind set as well as coaching. They tried something different, it didn’t work, confidence ebbs, so they return to form? I only hope they keep ball in hand tonight and don’t try to outmuscle in the air. Sure we have Biggar and L Williams, but otherwise a game of kick ping pong could leave the game without momentum.
Wales by 10pts+