Here we go for the final round, where the England v Ireland showdown isn’t quite as exciting as it could have been thanks to England’s malaise, but it will still be a great game to see if Ireland can clinch the Grand Slam.
Here are my predictions for the final round of matches.
Italy v Scotland
The Azzurri have lost every match by an average margin of 27 points, and that feels about right for this one if Scotland can find some better away form. The home side has the wooden spoon already sewn up, but Scotland will be eyeing up the top half of the table.
Scotland by 23
England v Ireland
I’ll be at Twickenham for this one tomorrow, and thankfully I am half-English and half-Irish, so I can’t lose. Having lived in England all my life, I’ll be cheering on the home side, but I would also love to witness an Irish Grand Slam on St Patrick’s Day.
I’m excited by the England team selection, since I was concerned that Eddie Jones would stubbornly stick to his guns and retain the dreadful back row combination that has lost the last two matches. He may have done just that had the injuries to Courtney Lawes and Nathan Hughes not forced his hand, but whatever the cause, the outcome is satisfactory – Chris Robshaw at 6, James Haskell at 7 and Sam Simmonds at 8 has a more balanced feel and an injection of much-needed pace. Whether they’ll be able to deliver some quick ball and reduce the penalty count remains to be seen though, since Ireland’s back row has been effective throughout, and I’d still expect the Irish to dominate here.
The front row is a concern from a scrummaging point of view, and Ireland are likely to have the advantage here – so if their front row and back row get on top, it doesn’t really matter what is out wide.
But in games like this, it can come down to one or two moments and whether or not the expected performance of each side matches what we see in the pressurised heat of the battle. Ireland has always enjoyed p**sing on England’s Grand Slam parade, and now there is an opportunity to return the favour – but will England relish that prospect as much as the Celtic nations have in the past?
Or is their real motivation about proving that the wheels haven’t totally come off the Eddie Jones-led chariot? And if it’s the latter, will that be enough to counter Ireland’s desperation to secure the Grand Slam? And on St Patrick’s Day too.
Given the dross that England has served up over the past two matches, I can’t see how they can turn it around for an occasion like this.
Ireland by 7
I can’t wait.
Wales v France
Having just got myself excited for Twickenham tomorrow by writing the words above, I’m struggling for motivation around this one, although the result will tell us a little about where each team stands after mixed results in the tournament so far.
Wales have looked comfortable in their home matches so far, and French teams hate playing away, so Wales ought to win.
Wales by 13
What do you think of these predictions?
Follow Hutch on Twitter: @Hutch_James
And the stats say:
Scotland by at least 2.
Wales by 1.
England by 10.
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Dreamer, Hutch is about right.
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BigDia, always a downer, its just what the stats say, not going to change them because you think i’m a ‘Dreamer’ its from factual evidence.
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Not a downer just a realist. stats are a useful tool but they just analyse that game. I have only got one prediction wrong thus far and that was the Wales Scotland game were i predicted a Scot win. I have also been pretty accurate with the score difference. Scotland will win in Italy and more than likely with a bonus point, but they will leak try’s to Italy. 18 – 28. Ireland will beat England but without a Bonus point, probably a losing bonus point to England. Jones has not got his back row selection right all 6 Nations and this is where, MO, England will come unstuck. 18 – 24. Wales should beat France and secure a winning Bonus point. 27-18. This is all based on gut and a feel for the game, not Stats.
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Using statistics would be a the realist’s choice of choosing a winner. Going on gut is far more subjective.
Though I agree with you, the stats may not take into account the nature by which England have lost.
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Well done Big Dai theres someone slow clapping in the world just for you!
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Big Dai what a truly condescending person you are, I bet your a joy to live with if someone disagrees with you, at the end of the day it’s a matter of opinion and someone, based on stars or gut will be right but theres no need to lower it to playground tittle tattle you have your predictions and let Mr B have his.
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Don’t know whether to be offended or estatic that you have taken the time to reply to my opinions. ??
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Big Dai did I just dream that or were statistically two of the results spot on?
Well done getting one result right, what’s the lesson here?
Don’t be so smug and easily dismissive big head! ????
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Impressive Mr B. Pat on the back for the two you predicted re Score difference. ?
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The stats got the three results right last time out, right?
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GKDA yes they did, results but not scores but there wasn’t much in it.
Personally I fancy England by 5, Wales by 7 and Scotland by 14.
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Agree on Scotland/Italy and Wales/France games, but think the England Ireland will be closer, England maybe even sneaking a win. It won’t be pretty, and I doubt we will suddenly see the flowing attacking rugby we want from England, but there is a reason grand slams are so rare. Home advantage to tip it – England by 2.
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I wouldnt rule out an England win.
They will have to play a lot better than they’ve managed to date and several things will have to fall into place, but the team selected does have the capacity to exert pressure on Ireland in a way that they havent experienced so far.
We always play better at home and rarely lose.
I just feel there is a good performance tucked away in this team, though i accept Ireland start as favourites. A tight game, with no more than 3-4 pts. separating the sides.
Elsewhere Scotland will easily win in Rome and Wales will beat France, though i expect this game to be another close one with home advantage proving decisive.
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Currently top of the SuperBru, and yet I fear this may be the week it all slips away from me…
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How did you do on the last day?
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Anyone reckon the snow predicted for Twickenham will make any difference? Potential for even more kicking and even more reliance on the tight, ugly stuff than I’m already expecting. Suppose both of those developments would tip the advantage towards Ireland, but probably not a major factor. Would be interested to know if anyone here has a better informed opinion.
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Italy 12- Scotland 32
England 13- Ireland 18
Wales 12- France 10
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Just came here to give myself a pat on the back. 3 out of 3, and very close to actual points scored by each team except for Italy. Should have got involved in Superbru…
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Good picks Stroudos, definitely get yourself on Superbru
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Scotland seriously exposed Ireland when the ball was moved wide, and but for a few missed passes the game could have gone the other way quite easily. The last minute drop against France has been done to death. The question is wether Ireland have acquired an NZ like knack of winning close games, or knicked England’s rub of the green.
Personally I think England will spoil the party. England are due a game when things click, and the starting team has more balance to it. I think Te’o will expose Aki, and finally give JJ the bit of space he needs.
I would have liked to see Haskell at 8 and Simmonds at 7 as it would be development but concede the expierence levels have driven the positions.
A much improved back row performance from England is imperative, but it’s containing Murray and Sexton that will be the deciding factor, and that’s a mighty big task.
It’s gonna be proper test match rugby tomorrow….brilliant.
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Great predictions Hutch – enjoy the day, wish I was there…
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As an England fan I don,t care if we win I just our team to play well and play some decent rugby. However I think its unlikely. The Irish front and back row are superior to ours not to mention there Half Backs. Ireland by 12
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