Firstly, apologies for the lack of articles in the last few days. With limited Rugby action, Joe Large had the weekend off and I’ve been away on a quick ski trip in Italy – now back and raring to go for the Six Nations, mentally refreshed if not physically!
In looking ahead to the tournament, I have crunched some numbers to predict what I believe will be a very close-fought tournament. And if my match predictions are correct, we could be in for another Super Saturday with the tournament coming down to points difference on the final day.
If the tournament is indeed won on points difference, it’s likely to be about which side can put the most points past Italy, and whether Conor O’Shea has any sneaky tactics up his sleeve in a damage-limitation exercise. I can’t see the Azzurri winning a match, and looking at each fixture in turn, my prediction is for Ireland, England and Scotland to finish on 18 match points with four wins each.
If that is indeed the case, Ireland appears to have the best chance of racking up a big score against Italy at the Aviva Stadium, leaving Scotland with slightly too much to do on the final weekend.
In Round 1, I think Scotland can win in Cardiff, based on the Welsh team announced today and believing the annual hype around Scotland’s chances this season. Ireland should beat France, and England will beat Italy, but as is often the case on the opening weekend, teams are a little rusty and lots of tries can be hard to come by. A bonus point for England is a minimum requirement, but something tells me it won’t be a cricket score.
Then in Round 2, Ireland will be into more of a groove and could thrash Italy, whilst Scotland will beat France at Murrayfield. England versus Wales is always tricky to call, but I don’t much fancy the Welsh chances this year, and a home win should be on the cards.
Scotland v England on the middle weekend could be a cracker of a match, if both teams are two from two and looking like title contenders. I can see the Scots claiming a rare win there, whilst Ireland play Wales in Dublin also confident of remaining unbeaten.
But in Round 4, I suspect Scotland will come unstuck in Dublin, which would leave Ireland travelling to Twickenham on the final day in search of a Grand Slam. England should relish the opportunity to avenge the 2017 defeat, and give themselves a chance to win the title at the same time – they’ll know what they need to do in terms of points difference, after Scotland have beaten Italy earlier in the day, but I predict that Ireland will lift the trophy.
Here are my predictions for ‘match points’ each weekend, and how the overall table will look:
| Team | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | Total |
| Ireland | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| England | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 18 |
| Scotland | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| Wales | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| France | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
What do you think? Ireland for the title? Can Scotland live up to expectations? Will Eddie’s England make it a hattrick of titles?
Predicted this myself, the difference being that I can see Ireland not getting the required bonus against England on the last day and Scotland thereby taking the Championship.
I also think that Scotland will pick up a BP win against either France or Wales and interestingly enough I think could either deny England a losing bonus at Murrayfield or take a winning one themselves. For us to beat England, I don’t think it’s going to be an arm wrestle because we’d lose that – I think it’ll be a case of a frantic and ferocious counter-attack punishing them.
Really excited regardless!
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As a Welsh man I have already be getting some stick in work but this is because of what I have been forecasting as the result for the forthcoming 6 nations. Ireland and Scotland fighting it out for 1st and 2nd, France and England in a scrap for 3rd place, Wales 5th and Italy Last. Can’t see use beating Scotland and this game has the potential to launch Scotland to becoming the Six Nations Champions. England like Wales have too many automatic 1st team picks missing. As always will look forward to the tournament but with a little trepidation as a Welsh supporter.
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i think u got it wrong wales are in top form they will win in twickenham and will win grand slam
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I can see at least England and Scotland getting five pointers over France (depending on the personnel!). France have not really improved in the last couple of years and their defence and discipline have been poor.
I think England will hold on to the trophy by the skin of their teeth. Eddie is doing a good job of brining in some fresh blood to replace long term injured players, whilst keeping the core of experienced players hungry for more and growing a winning mentality.
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Interestingly England are still the bookies’ favourite but I’m not sure they’ve called that correctly. Ireland seem more complete in both their team and the way they want to play at the moment. However, more than any other team I think Ireland’s chances hinge on key players. Murray, Sexton and PoM are so important to them (esp without O’Brien and Heaslip) that an injury to any one of them would drastically affect their chances of winning. If they can stay fit, then Ireland will be very hard to beat.
Scotland have a great team on paper but I still expect them to have at least one and probably two complete meltdowns like against England last year.
England seem worse hit by injuries, so its a bit up in the air. They have the talent and strength in depth to win but they are quite inexperienced and it may take them time to gel together.
I’ll take Ireland to win on an exciting last day
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I’ll agree with you on things hinging on Sexton, but not Murray or PoM, we have in form scrum halves and back rowers coming out of our ears, but Keatley for Sexton would be a disaster.
A tentative Ireland to win, but it’s going to be a hard run thing. England’s injury woes have been blown out of all proportion, Billy, Daly and Robshaw are the only real losses. I think Scotland losing their front row and Wales losing their back row and half backs will have more of a say on the tournament.
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And out of those three, Robshaw is already back in full training and expected to be fit for the first game!
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I don’t think Wales actually have any back row problems. Shingler, Navidi and Moriarty with Tipuric and Davies as back up looks alright to me.
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I think they’d have liked Faletau and Warburton to be fit
Kendal – I’d have said Conor Murray was equally as important for Ireland as Sexton. His box-kicking is crucial to Ireland’s game plan. And PoM brings a hard-nosed experience that would be sorely lacking in the back row as Heaslip and O’Brien are both out.
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yes wales have no problems ans have their tail up after a good win over the scots it will be hard to see this welch team palling at last post against england
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England worse hit by injuries? 9 webb,10 biggar,11north,12 J Davies,15 L.Williams,…still think we will win , , Scotland are missing the whole front row!, England make changes for changes sake or for Eddie trying different combos, we are forever hearing of Englands strength in depth so what can 4/5 injuries do to their tittle hopes when others are equally or worse off, for Wales to be missing so many quality and important players is far greater than Englands imo, but then it is my opinion , ..Most Welsh ppl are positive who ever we play and i think Wales will beat England and loose to Ireland , France to be better than expected , no grand slam , Wales to win 4 IF we beat scotland , …i kno ,its a big IF
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im irish prows but our team weny without 1 try against a poor team i think ireland hate to be favorites and that was the problem .wales play without fear of away games so i think wales will shock english in twickenham i hope as does all ireland rather lose to wales than english.wales to pick up the grand slam
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Just like Farrell,Itoje,Vunipola are so important to England, what’s you’re point?
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I’m hoping for an England-Ireland Grand Slam shoot out on the last weekend. If Ireland can gt that far without any more big injuries I think they go in as favourites but losing Sexton would give England the decisive advantage. If England can win that then the ABs await in the autumn. Could Murrayfield be the bananaskin? If the great Scottish weather god intervenes then it’s anyone’s guess. Otherwise whilst a repeat of last year’s score is unlikely, I think England’s strength in depth will show through.
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england remember got 3 trys against them by a poor italian team i think england depend on fouling and win at any costs which may lose all for them depending on ref
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England starting 15 is only missing 1st and second choice No8 so I don’t get why people are righting them of?
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has the England Team been picked?
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Current absences as they stand is:
2nd, 3rd and 4th choice loose head (marler banned, Genge and mullan injured).
1st blindside (robshaw).
1st and 2nd no 8 (Billy and hughes).
Slade and Te’o injured in 13 shirt (probably 2nd string?)
1st and 2nd winger (Daly and nowell)
1st fullback (brown).
That is pretty sizeable and would be a challenge for anyone to deal with. For context aren’t Wales missing 3 back rowers as well (Warburton, Lydiate and faleteau)?
Scotland front row problems are ridiculous though and for that reason alone I can’t see them as contenders (fully fit I think they have a great team though)
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exactly,..you think you got problems!?
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According to the BBC, Robshaw, Brown and Nowell are fit and trained today. Apparently EJ said Robshaw and Brown will be in the matchday 23 and Nowell is in contention. Guess Brown keeps on at 15 and Robshaw probably at 7. Was pleased Nowell is fit but was quite glad to see Brown not available. Back row of Lawes, Simmonds and Robshaw? Would like to see Underhill given a run out at 7.
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I’m not sure that England’s injury problems have been over exaggerated. With the exception of a backup loosehead and number 8 we have almost the entire first choice 23. Added to this Marler is back after the first or second game so even least serious.
I also think ireland may become unstuck against France. Whilst their home results are great their away form in the last 2 years have not been .
2016: England away, lost. France away, lost. South Africa away, win, draw, lost. 2017: Scotland away, lost. Wales away, lost.
That’s only 1 away win against a poor South Africa side in two years. France always start better than they continue and I think we could see an upset here.
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I’m surprised to see so many writing England off in here. Injuries really aren’t that bad. Basically only three (Billy, Marler and Daly) missing from a first choice 23? That’s a bloody good situation to be in.
Mako, Hartley, Cole, Lawes, Itoje, Robshaw, Underhill, Simmonds, Youngs, Ford, May, Farrell, JJ, Watson, Brown
George, Hepburn, Williams, Launchbury, Mercer, Care, Te’o, Nowell
That is a squad very capable of winning the Championship. Keeping in mind Marler only misses Italy and Wales, he’ll be back in by game day 3.
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Jacob, you’ve just made me realise why Hartley should be on the bench, for the Italy game at least. We have inexperienced props on the bench and they will need his leadership more than Mako and Cole will. Wouldn’t it make sense to keep him fresh and bring him on for leadership and experience with Hepburn and Williams (or whoever is on the bench)?
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With the likes of Cowan-Dickie and Dunne waiting in the wings I have no idea why he is even a possibility for the bench Dazza. He is in rubbish form and had provided little leadership at Saints. If he had, you would have expected the likes of Brookes and Hill to be pushing for England places by now instead of sliding back down the pecking order as they have done.
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I don’t know why people bring up Hartleys Saints form in this. Jones, and all international coaches, regularly point out that they don’t put all that much emphasis on it. Rightly so.
Many top internationals over the years are different players for their club in different environments (Nonu comes to mind). Until Hartley is poor for England, he’s going nowhere.
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Jacob, imv club form should play some part in selection. I don´t remember Martin Johnson or Lawrence Dallaglio ever going back to their clubs and playing as indifferently as Hartley has this season. He was OK but no better in the Autumn internationals, and if at any time in his career he had showed that he had the possibility of being world class I would understand persevering with him. However he is a completely known entity whose stats show that he can´t carry the ball across the gain line and misses too many tackles. Combine that with a nasty tendency to take cheap shots and the fact that we have a queue of better hookers waiting in line and I would now be moving on and looking to replace him as both player and captain.
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I think we both know we’re never going to agree on Hartley.
However I would say, the line out has been one of Englands main attacking weapons under Jones and Hartley has been central to that. He’s also a great scrummager. His tackle stats for England are actually very good, so I’m not sure where that view comes from?
On carrying, I’d agree that it isn’t something he excels at massively, but I would say he’s been the best set piece hooker in England for a decade.
On club form, again I would say it’s irrelevant unless he brings it to England. That isn’t the case as of right now.
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You are right Jacob. We will have to agree to disagree on Hartley. I hate his cynicism and do not even think his scrummaging is all that special. He is adept at popping out of the top as soon as he is under pressure and getting away with it, but how often have you seen a front row with him in it dominating the opposition? Is he world class? No. Never was and never will be. Could George, Dunne or LCD become world class? Possibly. George is clearly a better player which is why he was picked for the Lions. The other two have huge potential and are getting better, and there are several others coming up behind them. There are other senior players who are clearly the best in their position who can provide leadership. I don’t think Hartley can hang on until the next World Cup so why not get rid of him now?
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Hartley would’nt get in any other team in the 6n except maybe Italy , a very average player, nowhere near a lion!
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Jacob – injury concerns have lessened since most people posted about England. It originally looked like we would be missing BV, Marler, Daly, Brown, Nowell and Robshaw
Things are bit brighter now!
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there not writing them off england they just dont want them to win because of their arrogance but i cant see ireland winning in england as the record shows bad for ireland there but had it been ireland in dublin well id go ireland but wales will win it all 6 nations
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The issue with injuries is when you get down to 3rd, 4th or 5th choice players. That does have an impact on performance. England have the depth to ride it out but will have to rely on key partnerships and some of their established players to lift the overall effort.
Ireland have a good schedule – 3 home games on the bounce – and a settled look. They look like favourites to me.
Wales and Scotland could 3-2 or 2-3 depending on the impact around injuries, and France might surprise one or two. They have enough talent, but can they come together in time?
Italy will finish bottom, probably without a win, though I fervently hope at least the odd BP or two.
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Agree with that outlook steve, only as i said i think Wales may even get 4 wins, IF they beat Scotland
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Ireland-Wales is a five pointer for the Irish if weather allows it
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I’ll be back in a few weeks to remind you of that 1!
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i think your dreaming its a wales winner there ireland have played bad in france thats enough for my thoughts ahead sexton saved us there we where fav and got trashed in scrums i feel wales will be the boss here but love ireland to try for a win
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I can’t see Scotland winning in Cardiff.
Had their first choice front row been available, maybe. As it is, I would think the Scarlets front row is going to enjoy itself and Scotland won’t be able to get enough decent ball to their backs.
Wales are missing a number of important players but their team, built on the Scarlets, looks very promising. The sides appear pretty even other than Wales having a stronger front row and they’re at home. Can’t see Scotland doing it.
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