1. Blair Cowan vs Sam Warburton
One of the reasons that England had such success against Wales was that they stopped their one out, power runners behind the gainline, and one the main exponents of this aggressive rush defence was Chris Robshaw. He finished the game with 26 tackles, a figure that Cowan (or at least, someone in their back-row) will need to emulate if they are to stop the likes Roberts, Cuthbert and Faletau from getting over the gainline. Stop that, and you are well on your way to beating Wales. As for Warburton, he was far from his most influential, none of the galloping runs that we have seen at times when Wales have been on the up. Scotland have an exciting set of backs and will probably fancy the wide spaces against the much bigger Welsh backline – Warburton will be looking to slow the ball down as much as possible to stop them from doing so.
2. O’Mahony/O’Brien/Heaslip vs Dusautoir/le Roux/Chouly
Ireland would have been hoping that Sean O’Brien could have had a hit out against Italy before facing the fearsome French back row, but as it is he has been pitched back in at the deep end. Jamie Heaslip also missed last weekend, although he has played plenty of rugby this season and was being saved for this game. Either way, they will need to be straight back up to speed against a French trio that have quietly grown into a very effective unit. Dusautoir and le Roux work excellently in tandem, both with good technique at the breakdown as well as being relentlessly physical, while Chouly is a good footballer and not dissimilar in style to Heaslip, in that he likes to roam. Much will depend on how quickly O’Brien gets up to speed, because Ireland cannot afford to be slow to the breakdown.
3. Johnny Sexton vs Camille Lopez
The battle between the fly-halves is always going to be one of the most important on any pitch; they are the conductors of the rugby orchestra. And this is another case of an Irish returnee needing to get on with it immediately; Sexton will have been doing non contact training since his concussion problems started, but he will be match-rusty. Opposite him is a man who has galvanised the French side, so much so that it is almost performing as the sum of its brilliant parts. The Scotland game wasn’t the most fluid from the French point of view, but they will get better. Ireland sorely missed Sexton’s calming and controlling influence in Rome – had he been playing, you sense the difference on the scoreline would have been much greater. There are few, if any, more tactically astute players in the world right now – the sooner he gets the ball back on a string, the better for Ireland.
4. Ross Ford vs Richard Hibbard
As ever, the set piece will be vital at Murrayfield. The Welsh line-out was all over the place against England, and it will have to be vastly improved this weekend against Scotland, who have some springy jumpers amongst their ranks – the Gray brothers, Rob Harley and Blair Cowan are all useful lineout forwards. Hibbard hit his jumpers just over 70% of the time – a figure that is nowhere near good enough if you are to build a platform to win. Ross Ford was better with 84%, but will still hope to be higher this weekend. Both men are at the larger end of the spectrum for hookers, too, and yet both were unusually quiet in the loose in round one – they’ll hope to have more of an impact at Murrayfield.
5. Billy Vunipola vs Sergio Parisse
Two potential game-changers, both of these men were largely kept quiet on the opening weekend. Billy Vunipola, to his credit, put in a monumental shift, making plenty of tackles and carrying time and time again. More often than not, however, he was well shackled by the Welsh defence – they had a very obvious plan to hit him early, and hit him low, and it worked. Italy will have to do the same, but they will also have to do more to get their own talisman, Sergio Parisse, into the game. He can do things of which us mere mortals can only dream, but he was kept quiet by Ireland, almost as if they knew there was little threat from elsewhere. And to be fair, at times you have to feel sorry for Parisse – it can feel like he is fighting the battle on his own. If Italy are to have any chance of springing what would be the biggest upset for many, many years, Parisse has to find a way to be more effective.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43
Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images