Round 14 was a reasonably tough one, with an average of just over three correct picks from six in the SuperBru community. What’s in store this weekend, as the season hurtles towards its climax?
Chiefs vs Bulls
The Chiefs’ narrow loss to the Hurricanes last round has seen them drop further behind the log leaders, but given the topsy turvy form of pretty much every other side in the competition, they still have the second highest number of points. They have lost their last two games and are in desperate need of a win if they are to have any hope of reaching the Canes over the last four rounds. The Bulls currently sit in a home semi-final spot as the conference leaders, despite only having the seventh highest number of points in the competition – a stat that tells you all you need to know about the strength of the South African conference this year.
The Bulls have won just once over the Chiefs in Waikato since Super Rugby began, a stat that is unlikely to change this weekend given how poor they were on the road to the Blues last weekend. Chiefs by 10.
Reds vs Sharks
This game sees two sets of former greats both having dire seasons come together to try to salvage some sort of pride. The Sharks have had horrible luck with injuries but have also shot themselves severely in the foot with bans this season, and while they contributed manfully to an intriguing contest with the Waratahs last weekend, the end result was their sixth loss on the bounce. Funnily enough, that is also the Reds’ longest losing streak so far this year, but after two wins in their last five games they might just be starting to claw back some much needed confidence. Indeed, their thrilling win over the Rebels last time out saw them play with a previously unseen precision.
The Sharks will look to bully the Reds in the tight but if the hosts can release some of their talented backs, it could be a seventh straight loss for the men from Durban. Reds by 5.
Blues vs Hurricanes
With a 13 point gap over their nearest conference rivals, it would take a spectacular fall from grace for the Hurricanes to miss out on top spot with only four games remaining. Last weekend saw them battle past the Chiefs, again finding themselves on the right end of a tight scoreline – the mark of a champion side. That said, they won’t be taking anything for granted this round, especially after the Blues’ impressive dismantling of a powerful Bulls outfit last round.
Games between these two tend to be hugely high-scoring affairs, with defending very much secondary to attacking. It should be more of the same this weekend, and expect the Canes to continue their insatiably good form. Hurricanes by 6.
Waratahs vs Crusaders
The repeat of last season’s grand final is one of the games of the weekend and also one of the most difficult ones to call. Neither side is enjoying the kind of season they would have been hoping for, while due to the overly competitive nature of the New Zealand conference, only the Tahs currently sit in the semi-final spots. Both sides have been somewhat of an enigma this season, combining thrilling wins with unlikely losses – which does nothing to make this pick any easier. Past form is certainly worth taking into account – astonishingly, the Tahs’ last gasp win in the 2014 final was their first over the Saders for exactly ten years.
With such 50/50 games, it’s always best to go with home advantage. Waratahs by 2.
Force vs Highlanders
The Highlanders have a tough run in, with away games to come against conference rivals the Chiefs and Hurricanes, so they will know that picking up four, if not five, points here is crucial. The Force’s shock win over the Waratahs might have lent them some momentum, had they not had a week off in round 14. Those two wins over the champions have bookended what has otherwise been a woefully dire campaign for the men form the west. That said, they can take a bit of solace from the fact that they have not lost to the Highlanders since 2007.
Even taking that into account, with nothing left to play for they are unlikely to provide too much of a hurdle for the play-off chasing visitors. Highlanders by 12.
Cheetahs vs Lions
The only South African derby of the weekend sees a repeat of the return fixture that was played under a month ago. The match at Ellis Park at the end of April was one of the games of the season, both teams scoring some thrilling tries and the Lions running out winners thanks to a couple of late five-pointers. No one doubts the Cheetahs’ ability to thrill, but they have lacked the power and composure to truly threaten the top teams consistently this season. The Lions are bidding to become one of those top teams, and a win here will keep them in touch with the conference leaders.
The Lions have a decent record in Bloemfontein, having won two of their last three games there. They should make that three from four this weekend. Lions by 5.
Stormers vs Rebels
After failing to beat the Reds last weekend, the Rebels know their dreams of a play-off place are rapidly slipping away. They are not completely out of the running, but it was the sort of game they had to be winning if they were to truly challenge the upper echelons. The Stormers are still snapping at the Bulls’ heels, bidding for the top of the conference and the home play-off that would come with it. The Chiefs are the only away side to have triumphed at Newlands this year, while it is a venue at which the Rebels have only ever played once – a game they lost.
The Stormers should continue to put the pressure on the Bulls with a win. Stormers by 7.
By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43