Like many people, the Lions’ defeat in Argentina cost me a GSP in the final match of Round 6 – only 10% picked the home win, which isn’t surprising given that the Jaguares had lost at home to the Reds, but somehow managed to turn it around to beat last year’s runners-up.
Super Rugby has always been hard to predict, but we’re doing reasonably well so far this season.
Here are my predictions for Round 7 of Super Rugby.
Chiefs v Highlanders
The Chiefs have been mightily impressive in their last three halves of Rugby. A strong second-half against the Bulls delivered a stunning comeback victory, and then they put the Sunwolves to the sword last weekend. Back at home now, you’d expect them to beat the Highlanders, who suffered their first defeat of the season last weekend (in their first away game of the season). Until last season, the Highlanders had won 6 in a row against the Chiefs, but the Chiefs won in Dunedin last year and I think they’ll win in Hamilton on Friday. Chiefs by 9
Rebels v Hurricanes
The Rebels have caused a stir so far this season, with four big wins to their name and one defeat to the Waratahs. But this weekend will be a different test against the Hurricanes – so far they have beaten the Reds, Sunwolves, Brumbies and Sharks, none of whom are anywhere near the quality of the Canes. The Hurricanes won this fixture 71-6 in Wellington last year, and have just dispatched by the Crusaders and the Highlanders. I can’t see the Rebels winning. Hurricanes by 18
Blues v Sharks
I have overestimated the Sharks so far this season. They have been beaten twice in Australia – including by 32 points against the Rebels – and now have to travel to Eden Park to face the Blues. The home side will be fresh from a bye after their tour of South Africa and will have too much firepower for the South Africans. Blues by 19
Brumbies v Waratahs
The Brumbies have been fairly terrible so far this season, whilst the Tahs have been slightly better than expected. Both are fresh from a bye week, but the relative strength of the likely Waratahs lineup has me leaning in their favour. Waratahs by 6
Bulls v Stormers
Home advantage is a big factor at Loftus, and we were reminded of that in Round 1 with the Bulls’ victory over the Hurricanes. But the Stormers players will be more familiar with the stadium, and confident on the back of six wins in the last seven meetings between the two teams. The Lions won at Loftus in Round 2, and I think the Stormers will do the same here. Stormers by 4
Lions v Crusaders
A rare Sunday game in South Africa, and a repeat of last year’s final which could be another GSP spoiler for plenty of people. The Lions have only won one of the last nine matches against this Kiwi team, and two of the last 15. Both teams could be travel-weary, with the Crusaders arriving from Christchurch and the Lions returning from Buenos Aires on the back of a disappointing defeat – and that defeat came on the back of a lucky escape against the Sunwolves and a defeat to the Blues, both at home. My head is saying Crusaders for this one, even though they are still missing several players through injury. Crusaders by 2
What do you think of these picks? Four away wins out of six feels risky, but you have to judge every game in isolation.
Follow Hutch on Twitter: @Hutch_James
You won’t be far out with your picks.The only team to cause an upset could be the Highlanders.Team selection still awaited.Final picks after team announcement.
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I agree with you on the Highlanders Frans. Johnny Fauli seems to be a bit dodgy on defence and he will be up against one of the in form centers in Rob Thompson. The Highlanders will also have more upfront to keep Brody Retallic in check than what eh Bulls and Sunwolves had. Against the Sunwolves the Chiefs seemed to use a kicking game plan to stretch the rush defensive before they opened them up a kicking game against the deadly Highlanders back three can really come back to haunt you. Never the less its gonna be a cracker of a game.
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Good day Hutch.
I only differ from you on the Chiefs game and margin for the Lions game otherwise we feel the same BUT there has been 36 games played in super rugby this year , 27 games won by the home team and 5 games won by the away team where the away team has been the no brain pick. That leaves 3 away victories given the Sharks and Waratahs drawn game thus a less than 10 persent away victory throughout the tournament. You will in one weekend go for the same amount of away victories than the whole of the completed season and I will bank on one more!
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Hi Morras. Good stats and yes I’m slightly nervous at the number of away matches I have picked, but as I say, you have to judge each match on its individual merits, since one outcome does not affect another.
Cross your fingers and hope for the best.
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Perhaps foolishly, I have gone with my heart rather than my head, and predicted a Lions win. My other picks are all within a few margin points of yours.
Not a great season for us Sharks fans.
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I agree with these picks mostly, but the first and last game can be GSP killers. The Highlanders are notorious of winning close battles with their NZ counter parts when there is nothing to choose between the sides and the Lions will be scarred by their away loss to the Jaguares.
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