The Austin Healey Q&A: why there will be two Champions Cup away wins

Patrick Cheshire spoke to BT Sport Ambassador Austin Healey ahead of a huge weekend of European rugby to get his thoughts on all the big games, Billy Vunipola’s ‘head-but’ and Stuart Lancaster’s holiday plans.

Patrick Cheshire: Hi Austin, there’s a huge weekend of European Rugby ahead, let’s start with Clermont v Saracens; these two are developing something of a European history together, how do you see this latest episode panning out?

Austin Healey: This is a tough one to call because Sarries have been a real bogey team for Clermont. Saracens lost last time at Clermont [in the group stages] but on the previous two occasions they’ve beaten them. The Clermont players will remember last year’s semi-final. Clermont have always been the bridesmaids but they’ve never gone all the way, despite being many people’s favourite.

PC: Do you think playing at a neutral venue (the game will be played in St Etienne) will affect the teams?

AH: Definitely, it’s massive. The Stade Marcel Michelin is a fortress for Clermont, although they unexpectedly lost last week (to Oyonnax) with a heavily rested side. I think Saracens will be uplifted by going to St. Etienne, it will give them a renewed energy. A win here would be huge for them and it could be the start of a potential double.

PC: Clermont’s Benjamin Kayser this week has called St Etienne a “home from home” for his side, do you buy that?

AH: About as much as I buy the myth that French food is better than English.

PC: Is that an endorsement for the Londoners then?

AH: Well this is the danger for Saracens; a potential backlash. Physically Sarries will have to try to get at Clermont, particularly if Billy Vunipola doesn’t get banned, which if he does then we should all just give up watching and playing for the rest of our lives.

Against Racing Metro in the quarters Billy and his brother Mako hunted as a pair and they really stopped that big French pack from motoring forward. Now if they can do that to Racing then I think they can do it to Clermont as well and if their defence around the breakdown is good, particularly picking up the likes of Abendanon who loves to attack that area, then I think they can win.

PC: You mention Nick Abendanon – he’s the latest Englishman-abroad to be touted as a potential bolter for the RWC. Is that likely given Stuart Lancaster’s current stance?

AH: There is no doubt that Nick is good enough to play for England, but the big question is if Stuart Lancaster allows him and Steffon Armitage to count as ‘exceptions’. Bringing them back into the fold now would be opening a whole can of worms, a really dangerous decision to make.

I think you’d see a big back lash from the English Directors of Rugby – Conor O’Shea has already said it would be a disaster for English rugby. Stuart Lancaster had better get an EasyJet account for all the trips to France he’d be making.

PC: Maybe that’s the plan for Lancaster? Let those two in and bag a few sneaky trips away to the South of France on the RFU?

AH: He must be getting bored of those training camps in Leeds!

PC: To the other semi-final in Marseille, Toulon v Leinster – can Leinster spring an upset?

AH: It’s going to be a fascinating game but I think Leigh Halfpenny missing will be the decisive factor. Leinster will now be able to compete a lot harder for the ball in their own half and look to create turnovers. They say I’m mad as out of all previous Euro semis only 37% have been won by the away side. I’m going for two away wins, which means I’ve got a one in six chance. I need to roll a six!

PC: Tactically what can Leinster do to take this one away from Toulon?

AH: I think emulating the way Wasps played against them, moving that big pack around and attacking them out wide. Toulon have got some great wide players, but Delon Armitage, when he was in the UK, was he a world beater?

I don’t think so, and he’s certainly someone Leinster can target. Also Mathieu Bastareaud – whilst he’s brilliant carrying the ball forward, he turns like a canal barge. I wouldn’t run straight at him, but if you can get at his outside then there is vulnerability there.

Leinster will want to keep the tempo high and play with plenty of width, but that’s easier said than done in these big games. You might have expected Sarries to do something similar against Racing but they didn’t, they kicked the ball away and defended. That could be something we see from Leinster as well, they’ve got a very good kicking game and I think they’ll want to manufacture ways of getting Madigan into kicking positions.

PC: As someone who played in two Euro finals yourself, what do you feel the key factors are in these big games?

AH: You know there will be defining moments before you go into the game, and you just have to go in with the approach of making as few mistakes as possible; executing basic skills, not putting kick offs out on the full… then, discipline. You can’t allow these big French sides to build momentum through soft penalties and unforced errors.

There were also a number of occasions in Leicester’s finals where players took one for the team, got smacked in the face and didn’t react. That’s absolutely crucial, to maintain your composure.

PC: So definitely a Saracens v Leinster Final? Last chance…

AH: I’m sticking with it!

PC: The Challenge Cup also has two season defining games for its semi-finalists this weekend, how do you see those going?

AH: Edinburgh played poorly last week and the Dragons have got an exciting young backline, but I think Edinburgh as the home side at Murrayfield will be too strong.

Gloucester have been pretty good at Kingsholm this year, but just terrible away. Their big stars are going to have to perform… John Afoa and Greig Laidlaw have to turn up for them. Being at home will make this one a lot closer.

Exeter, if they bring the right mind set and want this as much as they want an Aviva Premiership playoff spot, will be favourites, and in terms of sheer power in the pack I think that’s where they win it. Francis, Moon and Yeandle were excellent last week and all of that Exeter pack is playing excellent rugby.

PC: So who will we see at the Stoop?

AH: Edinburgh v Exeter in the final for me!

Watch Clermont Auvergne v Saracens exclusively live on BT Sport 1 this Saturday from 2.30pm. BT Sport is the only place to watch top live matches from the European Rugby Champions Cup, Challenge Cup and Aviva Premiership.