Firstly, apologies for missing this article for the last couple of rounds – I was too busy going into Round 2 and didn’t have time, and then just plain forgot for Round 3!
Anyway, here are my predictions for this weekend’s Rugby Championship matches.
New Zealand v South Africa
The All Blacks’ aura is fading. I set up this blog in 2007, and for over 10 years – aside from a catastrophic World Cup failure that year – I have been writing predictions for their matches without really seeing how they can be beaten. But the Lions exposed some weaknesses in June, their goal-kicking was poor, and Steve Hansen’s selection decisions during that series appeared slightly more dithering than decisive.
Roll on a couple of months, they’ve all but won the Rugby Championship with three rounds to go, and they’ll probably win this match too – but there is hope for the rest of the world. The Springboks will bring physicality, and if they can combine that with improved line speed in defence to stifle the All Blacks’ attack, take their chances and kick their goals, they can win this match.
But I can’t see it happening. There are some bigger weaknesses in the Boks’ lineup, including a few suspect defenders, and we all know how good New Zealand can be at punishing any mistakes. The back three of Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder and Damien Mackenzie looks particularly threatening, whilst McKenzie offers a backup kicking option, and with Ryan Crotty returning in midfield, they’ll be too good.
My prediction: New Zealand by 16
Australia v Argentina
After their first-half shocker against New Zealand in Round 1, the Wallabies have undergone something of a revival, winning the second half in that match, then giving the All Blacks a scare the following week. They drew with the Springboks last week in a game both sides could have won, and this week they should beat the Pumas.
That said, Argentina gave New Zealand a decent game last week, taking the lead at half time, only for the usual story to play out later on. Whilst they shouldn’t be underestimated, the Wallabies look like a better team to me.
My prediction: Australia by 13
How do you think the games will go?
Thought I’d better respond, esp as I’d queried why SHC predictions had prev been unavailable & because English fans are seemingly navel gazing or have something else better to do & it would be a shame if the column remained blank wouldn’t it?
Anyway, predictions for the above seem, er, predictable in the former game’s case, but I’m unclear as to why they should necessarily indicate an Oz loss in the latter match?
All the AB’s need do is have a big win on Sat methinks to quell the contention that their ‘aura is fading’ apparantly. Bit flimsy on evidence to date to state that their demise is imminent just yet innit? Esp as this is based on 2 Lions games (1st test was presumably excluded?) & the prev Argentinian game last Sat? Besides, the Lions won only 50% & DIDN’T win the test series. Also, NZ were down a man & squandered tries in the 2nd & last respectively. Regrds Hansen’s ‘dithering’, I suspect that he was & is looking ahead to 2019 WC as well as the here & now. Thsi is more so, as some of his current players will likely be, for various reasons, unavailable in 2019. Perhaps it’s called forethought.. as per the Argentina test last Sat when NZ won comfortably enough in the end (when it counts), with 7 changes to boot from their previous match. Anyway, we’ve been there before (since 1972?), but time will tell.
IMO NZ ought to win, by the 16 suggested here, maybe a few more(?), not withstanding that SA have improved, but they are likely to try & run over or through the AB’s as ever. However, NZ ought to have too much with their ball skills esp, although not exclusively, in their backs in the end. If Barrett has an ‘on’ day, as per the Lions & Oz in the 1st tests, instead of an ‘off’ 1, it will likely make for a more comfortable Kiwi margin.
As the author indicated, Oz gave NZ a some gyp
1st up, so I wouldn’t be so sure about Argentina’s hopes nxt up. Besidesl, a ‘depleted’ England out performed them not too long ago didn’t they? They can’t be all that then. Oz by 5-7?
Thanks Don, I wrote these for you. And also accidentally wrote Argentina instead of Australia in my prediction for that game…I had better check what I put on Superbru too.
As for the ABs’ demise being imminent, I’m not saying that – all I’m saying is that playing them now doesn’t seem as futile as it has been over the past several years, when they have looked completely untouchable. I still expect them to win, but this is something to cling to for the rest of the Rugby world that doesn’t want to see one team dominate the sport.
Champion Hutch!
And it was a bit like the Trail of the Lonesome Pine’ b4 your (& er, Dave’s?) response/s!
Regds.
The world Cup is 2 years away.
The Lions series will only benefit 1 country and that won’t be any of the UK Nations.
You totally under-estimate Hansen.
The AB’s are focused the world cup and even though they are playing poor rugby at the moment – They are still to good for the rest of the world.
As per the last world cup – All the so-called rugby critics knew it all – The AB’s are making to many mistakes etc etc etc – Only to find that these so called rugby experts didn’t really know anything.
Read what you want concerning the AB’s – I can assure you – If you are not a Kiwi you wouldn’t really know what the AB’s are up to.
The British Lions this year have almost guaranteed that that the AB’s will win in 2019 and that is the only thing that matters to NZ.
Drawn series agains tthe Lions – Yes – Helped by poor AB Rugby.
You can guarantee this – The AB’s will be first to overcome this very defensive style currently being played and they will crack that well before it matters in 2019 while continuing to beat all other nations.
The AB’s are working on a style of game that you wouldn’t understand and if you ar enot a Kiwi – Probably never understand it.
As per normal – As teams try and catch up – The AB’s move on.
WHATEVER YOU SEE IS VERY OFTEN NOT THE REALITY……………………………………
A reminder to the Writer – In his own words = usual story to play out later on – Well he is going to see it again and again – And most importantly – In 2019 at the World Cup.
Reality was reality when i last looked at it…are you the last of the romantics or something…one of those for whom things are not as they seem?
Wow quite the humble post. Try not to take it so personally when someone suggests the AB are not untouchable. Perhaps you could write these articles in the future from your brilliantly unbiased viewpoint?
Mike
Not a problem. I’ll endeavour to do so! Have done so in the past!
Bah it was meant to be in reply to Dave. Apologies
Apologies likewise for getting the wro g end of the drift.
Your Comment – I still expect them to win, but this is something to cling to for the rest of the Rugby world that doesn’t want to see one team dominate the sport.
The rest of the world is not capable of keeping up – Thats the problem.
Dave
Would humbly beg to differ.
England are capable and i guess we’re going to see now aren’t we?
It’s arrogance like that that
A: Inspired The Lions and their coach (a scab no doubt to you!)
B: Will inspire England and a few others to boot (in fact already has…sorry…Ireland!)
All it takes in a WC is one loss (remember France!) so a little less mouth and a bit more humility!
Even Steve Hansen’s current PR mantra is that his team is ‘humble’ and respectful…….!
The saddest thing about NZ rugby is the blatant arrogance of their supporters…. really is pathetic…. the ABs are good and a very classy side, however the supporters reduce them to pompous blubbering idiots…. can’t say much more about NZ commentators… really is pathetic the condescending stench coming out of NZ at the moment….
B
Exactly. It’s what primarily inspired my initial response. I found the blog by Dave literally from The Planet of Zog. The only people qualified to speak in such absolute terms are ex-All Blacks and i don’t suppose he is one unless a kiwi doppelganger of DAVE Flatman.
The British thing of not being ‘allowed to challenge’ such statements of course comes into it (Political correctness – in this case Rugby PC)
If i said such things on a Kiwi blog in New Zealand i’d fear for my crown jewels.
I detect a very precious sense of self-entitlement amongst AB fans – an entitlement that says they should win every time. When they don’t their behaviour leaves them with egg on their faces and proverbial pants on their head! Lessons in humility would go a long way but then the more they lose is a sporting lesson in itself – earned the hard way!
Very much agree with you. New Zealand is just so dominating right now. Hard to compete.
NZ all the way the whole tournament. Who can really challenge them? Sincerely, I think nobody.
Yes – Very right say the South Africans who have just been done over 57-0………….
Believe what you know about rugby.
As stated earlier the original writer of the article has no clue about NZ Rugby.
By the time you lot work it out – The AB’s will be long gone.
As stated earlier the British and Irish Lions series will be a godsend for NZ Rugby.
The early AB matches in the last world cup give the clues to what NZ Rugby are focusing on.
And a couple of slight tactic changes to the AB Backline against the Springboks last night moved the AB’s away from the rush defence.
But of course – You lot wouldn’t a clue to what I am referring to.
Keep it up boys – The Poms are developing a game that the AB’s threw out 3 years ago.
We’ll see…we’ll see. As usual quietly cofident in an UNDERSTATED way rather than the very over the top, SILLY way you guys get!
What a rout from NZ. They are just unstoppable right now.