The State of Play: who will finish where in Europe’s domestic leagues?

As we approach the business end of the season, there is still all to play for in Europe’s three primary leagues. We’ve taken a look at how we think things will end up in terms of play-off places, European qualification and relegation.

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Play-offs: Northampton are home and dry for a home semi-final, needing only two points from their last two games to guarantee it – they play London Welsh this weekend and will confirm it then. Bath look odds on to join them, with games against Quins and Gloucester both very winnable, although if they slip up at all Saracens could pip them to second – the North Londoners play Exeter at home and Welsh away, which should give them at least nine points. The battle for fourth is where it gets most interesting. Leicester currently hold the spot, but games away at Wasps – 3 points behind them – and at home to Saints make them far from favourites, particularly given the way they are playing. Exeter’s away trip to Saracens also means they are likely to only win one more game, all of which means Wasps could surge through and claim that final spot. Bonus points will be crucial. PREDICTION: 1. Northampton 2. Bath 3. Saracens 4. Wasps

European Champions Cup Qualification: the top six are pretty much set in stone, and after Gloucester won the Challenge Cup, it means whoever finishes seventh will miss out. PREDICTION: 5. Exeter 6. Leicester (Challenge Cup winners Gloucester go into end of season play-offs)

Relegation: The only part of the league that hasn’t provided any intrigue this year. London Welsh‘s fate was sealed a long time ago.

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Play-offs: The top four have been decided; their order has not. Home semi-finals are so crucial so there is still all to play for, and a look at the fixtures makes for intriguing reading. All of the top four sides face at least one other game against a fellow play-off-dweller – and in Glasgow and Ulster’s case, two. Should Ulster beat Munster this weekend and Glasgow lose with a bonus point at the Ospreys – neither a far-fetched scenario – then the sides will face each other as the top two on the final day of the season at Scotstoun. Should Glasgow win that one at home, they’d secure top spot, but the Ospreys could pip Ulster to second with a win away at Connacht. Munster would need a big win on the final day against the Dragons to be in the hunt for a home semi-final, unless they do in fact win at the Kingspan this weekend. Once again, bonus points will have a big say. PREDICTION: 1. Glasgow 2. Ospreys 3. Munster 4. Ulster

European Champions Cup Qualification: Unlike the Premiership there’s plenty of intrigue here. Given either Treviso or Zebre has to qualify despite filling the bottom two spots in the league, the top six are guaranteed entry into the Champions Cup, while the seventh will enter the play-off draw away to Gloucester. Leinster sit in fifth and need five points to guarantee a top six spot – they should get that at home to Treviso this weekend despite how badly they’ve been playing. That leaves Scarlets, Edinburgh and Connacht fighting it out for sixth and seventh. Of the three, the Scarlets have two emminently winnable games while the other two will likely only win one – leaving the final positions as they are now. PREDICTION: 5. Leinster 6. Scarlets 13. Treviso (7. Edinburgh enter play-off against Gloucester)

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Play-offs: The top two will enter the semi-finals directly, while third-sixth play in the ‘Barrages’ to determine the other two semi-finalists. It leaves the faintly ridiculous situation where Montpellier – just four points clear of the relegation zone – are only one spot and six points off a place in the barrages. They could yet be crowned champions. There are three rounds of fixtures left, and Toulon sit five points clear of Toulouse in third – which means the European champions are a good bet for a home semi-final. Clermont, their beaten finalists, are less so – their season fell apart after the same result in 2013, and given they have only one game left at home (to, you guessed it, Toulon), their place in the top two is anything but secure. Toulouse, in blistering domestic form and with two home games left, look the most likely to usurp them. PREDICTION: 1. Toulon 2. Toulouse 3. Clermont Auvergne 4. Stade Français 5. Racing Métro 6. Oyonnax

European Champions Cup Qualification: The top six above will all qualify automatically. The seventh-placed team will enter the play-off final, away to whichever side wins the first leg. At the moment, four points separate Montpellier in seventh and Bayonne in 13th – the distance between Europe and the PROD2 next season is that small. To be perfectly honest, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will take that seventh place – but given they have two home games left, I’ll opt for Montpellier to hang on. PREDICTION: 7. Montpellier

Relegation: Mathematically, Lyon could still stay up, but as they sit 12 points adrift of safety it is exceedingly unlikely. Assuming they are down, the battle is then for who will finish 13th and as we’ve already seen there are still a whopping seven clubs still in danger. Castres were bottom of the pile before a resurgent second half of the season saw them regain some pride and table position. But with away trips to both Racing Métro and Toulon to come, as well as a relegation scrapper at home to Brive, they look the most precariously positioned, clear of the bottom two currently only on points difference. PREDICTION: 13. Castres 14. Lyon

My head hurts now. What are your predictions for the season run-in? Leave them in the comments section below.

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images