European Rugby Champions Cup 2014/2015: Round 4 Predictions

mitchell

Pool 1

The only same-nationality fixture of the weekend once again, Saracens are back on home turf to take on a Sale side that caused them more problems than they would have liked at the AJ Bell last weekend. They have the imperious, and seemingly timeless, brilliance of Charlie Hodgson to thank for their win in Salford, but he is unceremoniously benched for the return game as Owen Farrell moves to his more preferred 10 shirt. Danny Cipriani is absent for Sale, robbing us of what would have been a salivating battle with real England overtones.

Munster head to the Massif Central on Sunday with their qualification hopes hanging by a thread. Points-wise they are right up there, but they’ve an away trip to Saracens to come, too. But with their backs to the wall, so they say, is when Munster play their best rugby. The Marcel Michelin is not the impenetrable fortress it was as recently as last season, but after their dogged win at Thomond last weekend, Clermont’s tail will be up. For Munster, JJ Hanrahan is given a start at 12, perhaps in a bid to persuade him to stay at the province in the midst of the rumours that he’s off to Northampton. His task is shackling Wesley Fofana, usually a thankless one.

Saracens vs Sale: Saracens by 10
Clermont Auvergne vs Munster: Clermont by 6

Pool 2

Leinster are still on course to qualify despite last week’s loss to Harlequins, but it was the insipid nature of the performance that stuck in the craw for fans. They need to bounce back at home, in a reversal of what happened in last year’s head to head with Northampton. Quins are without Robshaw and Evans, two of their key influencers, and there will surely be some sort of response from Leinster, who continue with the Gopperth/Madigan axis at 10/12.

Elsewhere Wasps will be targeting another bonus point win over Castres to keep their slim qualification hopes alive, and frankly it would be a huge surprise if they didn’t get it. They’ve been playing good rugby all season and against a Castres side that looks increasingly in crisis (no wonder, given their farcical coaching situation) they’ll be confident of another big victory. You baulk at picking a French side to win on the road at the best of times, let alone this Castres side now.

Leinster vs Harlequins: Leinster by 9
Wasps vs Castres: Wasps by 20

Pool 3

As if the Toulon vs Tigers game wasn’t an enticing enough prospect as it was, the furore surrounding Castro’s rant makes this comfortably the spiciest encounter of the weekend. The shaggy-haired Italian might not be playing but events in the week (the Toulon players ordered t-shirts with supportive messages for Castro on them) mean the hosts will be right up for this one. There is a fair gulf in class between the two line-ups on paper, but the Tigers have come close at the Felix Mayol in the past and have got that winning feeling back. They won’t be an easy proposition and should be targeting a bonus point at least.

Elsewhere Ulster travel to the Scarlets needing a win to keep their qualification hopes alive. The Welsh region’s form has been scatty but at home they can be difficult to beat – just ask the Tigers, who have lost there already. That result in round two opens the door for Ulster, who will target a win here and at home in the final round to the Tigers, which could be enough to usher them into second place. They drew at the Parc y Scarlets on the opening day of the PRO12 season, however, so it is far from a given that they’ll win here, especially with their injury issues – although the presence of Ruan Pienaar is again a huge boost.

Toulon vs Leicester Tigers: Toulon by 5
Scarlets vs Ulster: Ulster by 3

Pool 4

Friday night’s game comes from the Rec, where one name dominates the agenda. Sam Burgess makes his first start for Bath in the midfield, as they take on the Montpellier team they put 30 points past last weekend. The failure to get a bonus point at the Altrad could come back to haunt them, and they definitely need one here. As for Montpellier, where do we start? Rumour has it player power convinced club president Altrad to keep Fabien Galthie on, but they come into this game on a run of six losses and with a coaching staff in disarray after one was sacked and another subsequently quit in protest. Turmoil doesn’t begin to describe it.

Up in Glasgow, Toulouse can all but wrap up the pool if they win at Scotstoun, and would do Bath a favour in the process. Being a French side a long way from home, however, that’s not especially likely to happen. Add in that their half-back partnership consists of two scrum-halves and their kicking game will this suffer, and it looks an especially difficult task. Glasgow will be kicking themselves for not getting a bonus point at the Ernest Wallon, making their life significantly harder. A win while denying Toulouse a bonus point is the very least they’ll want from this, and back at home they should be able to achieve it.

Bath vs Montpellier: Bath by 15
Glasgow vs Toulouse: Glasgow by 12

Pool 5

The first game of pool five is the formality of the Saints against Treviso. Really there’s not a great deal of point in previewing the game as it will be horrendously one way traffic – there’s almost literally nothing positive to say about Treviso’s chances. Anything other than a cricket score would be acceptable.

The other game holds far more intrigue. Ospreys missed the chance to win last weekend and now need to do so in Paris, which is a tough ask – but if they do so they stand an excellent chance of qualifying, with Saints still to visit the Liberty. Dan Lydiate will no doubt have passed on all the lineout calls, so it will be intriguing to see if that affects Racing Métro’s game at all. Realistically, though, it’s a huge ask for an Ospreys side that is horrendously depleted in the front row.

Northampton Saints vs Benetton Treviso: Northampton by 40
Racing Métro vs Ospreys: Racing by 15

HosieHutch
Bath v MontpellierBath by 15Bath by 23
Glasgow v ToulouseGlasgow by 12Glasgow by 3
Northampton v TrevisoNorthampton by 32Northampton by 23
Toulon v LeicesterToulon by 5Toulon by 13
Saracens v SaleSaracens by 10Saracens by 18
Racing Metro v OspreysRacing by 15Racing by 10
Leinster v HarlequinsLeinster by 9Leinster by 8
Wasps v CastresWasps by 20Wasps by 13
Clermont v MunsterClermont by 6Clermont by 13
Scarlets v UlsterUlster by 3Ulster by 3

What do you make of our predictions?

By Jamie Hosie
Follow Jamie on Twitter: @jhosie43

Photo by: Patrick Khachfe / Onside Images

4 thoughts on “European Rugby Champions Cup 2014/2015: Round 4 Predictions

  1. Glasgow by 12?!?

    “…Add in that their half-back partnership consists of two scrum-halves and their kicking game will this suffer, and it looks an especially difficult task.”

    Certainly you didn’t saw last weekend game, where those two young scrum-halves performed an awesome game.
    Final result should have been 19-6 as the Glasgow try came from an obvious forward pass.

    I could even admit that Glasgow could win but not for such a difference of points, also toulouse lineup is better than last weekend.

    BATH more than 15 points.

  2. While a backlash from leinster is fully expected i still wouldnt write off Quins, Evans and Robshaw are still big losses however Evans went off after 13 mins of the first game so tim sweil basically ran the game from then onwards, I think the home crowd advantage played into quins hands and the same will be for leinster, I just wouldn’t put it past Quins stealing a close victory .

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